Tag: bankcard
Experian's most recent Credit Trends study analyzing current debt levels and credit scores in the top 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas found that Detroit, Michigan, residents have the lowest average debt ($23,604) and Dallas, Texas, residents have the highest average debt ($28,240).1
Bankcard originations had a 32 percent year-over-year increase in Q4 2013 ($61 billion to $81 billion).
While access to small-business credit is improving and credit balances are increasing, key differences still remain across the United States.
The average bankcard balance per consumer in Q2 2013 was $3,831, a 1.3 percent decline from the previous year. Consumers in the VantageScore® near prime and subprime credit tiers carried the largest average bankcard balances at $5,883 and $5,903 respectively. The super prime tier carried the smallest average balance at $1,881.
Using data from IntelliViewSM, Credit.com recently compiled a list of states with the highest average bankcard utilization rates. Alaska took first place, with an average utilization ratio of 27.73 percent. This should come as no surprise since Alaska has recently topped lists for highest credit card balances and highest revolving debt.
A recent Experian credit trends analysis of new mortgages and bankcards from Q1 2013 shows a 16 percent year-over-year increase in mortgage origination volume and a 20 percent increase in bankcard limits. Providing further evidence of continued economic recovery throughout the nation, mortgage delinquency rates reached multi-year lows and bankcard delinquency rates reached near-record lows.
The average bankcard balance per consumer in Q2 2012 was $4,170, which is 4 percent higher when compared to the same quarter of the previous year. VantageScore A and VantageScore B tiers (super prime and prime) saw bankcard balances increase by 31 percent and 11 percent respectively, while all other VantageScore® tiers experienced annual balance decreases during the same timeframe. Listen to our recorded Webinar on consumer credit trends from the Q2 2012 Market Intelligence Reports, including bankcard trends and an in-depth look at the current state of the U.S. real estate market. Source: Experian Oliver-Wyman Market Intelligence Reports VantageScore® is owned by VantageScore Solutions, LLC.
Up to this point, I’ve been writing about loan originations and the prospects and challenges facing bankcard, auto and real estate lending this year. While things are off to a good start, I’ll use my next few posts to discuss the other side of the loan equation: performance. If there’s one thing we learned during the post-recession era is that growth can have consequences if not managed properly. Obviously real estate is the poster child for this phenomenon, but bankcards also realized significant and costly performance deterioration following the rapid growth generated by relaxed lending standards. Today, bankcard portfolios are in expansion mode once again, but with delinquency rates at their lowest point in years. In fact, loan performance has improved nearly 50% in the past three years through a combination of tighter lending requirements and consumers’ self-imposed deleveraging. Lessons learned from issuers and consumers have created a unique climate in which growth is now balanced with performance. Even areas with greater signs of payment stress have realized significant improvements. For example, the South Atlantic region’s 4.2% 30+ DPD performance is 11% higher than the national average, but down 27% from a year ago. Localized economic factors definitely play a part in performance, but the region’s higher than average origination growth from a broader range of VantageScore consumers could also explain some of the delinquency stress here. And that is the challenge going forward: maintaining bankcard’s recent growth while keeping performance in check. As the economy and consumer confidence improves, this balancing act will become more difficult as issuers will want to meet the consumer’s appetite for spending and credit. Increased volume and utilization is always good for business, but it won’t be until the performance of these loans materializes that we’ll know whether it was worth it.
The strongest growth in new bankcard accounts is occurring in the near-prime and subprime segments of VantageScore® C, D and F. Year-over-year (Q1 2011 over Q1 2010) growth rates of 20 percent, 46 percent and 53 percent were observed for each of the respective tiers. Listen to our recent webinar featuring bankcard credit trends Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports
In my last two posts on bankcard and auto originations, I provided evidence as to why lenders have reason to feel optimistic about their growth prospects in 2012. With real estate lending however, the recovery, or lack thereof looks like it may continue to struggle throughout the year. At first glance, it would appear that the stars have aligned for a real estate turnaround. Interest rates are at or near all-time lows, housing prices are at post-bubble lows and people are going back to work with the unemployment rate at a 3-year low just above 8%. However, mortgage originations and HELOC limits were at $327B and $20B for Q3 2011, respectively. Admittedly not all-time quarterly lows, but well off levels of just a couple years ago. And according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, 65% of the mortgage volume was from refinance activity. So why the lull in real estate originations? Ironically, the same reasons I just mentioned that should drive a recovery. Low interest rates – That is, for those that qualify. The most creditworthy, VantageScore A and B consumers made up nearly 77% of the $327B mortgage volume and 87% of the $20B HELOC volume in Q3 2011. While continuing to clean up their portfolios, lenders are adjusting their risk exposure accordingly. Housing prices at multi-year lows - According to the S&P Case Shiller index, housing prices were 4% lower at the end of 2011 when compared to the end of 2010 and at the lowest level since the real estate bubble. Previous to this report, many thought housing prices had stabilized, but the excess inventory of distressed properties continues to drive down prices, keeping potential buyers on the sidelines. Unemployment rate at 3-year low – Sure, 8.3% sounds good now when you consider we were near 10% throughout 2010. But this is a far cry from the 4-5% rate we experienced just five years ago. Many consumers continue to struggle, affecting their ability to make good on their debt obligations, including their mortgage (see “Housing prices at multi-year lows” above), in turn affecting their credit status (see “Low interest rates” above)… you get the picture. Ironic or not, the good news is that these forces will be the same ones to drive the turnaround in real estate originations. Interest rates are projected to remain low for the foreseeable future, foreclosures and distressed inventory will eventually clear out and the unemployment rate is headed in the right direction. The only missing ingredient to make these variables transform from the hurdle to the growth factor is time.
A surprising occurrence is happening in the consumer credit markets. Bank card issuers are back in acquisition mode, enticing consumers with cash back, airline points and other incentives to get a share of their wallet. And while new account originations are nowhere near the levels seen in 2007, recent growth in new bank card accounts has been significant; 17.6% in Q1 2011 when compared to Q1 2010. So what is accounting for this resurgence in the credit card space while the economy is still trying to find its footing and credit is supposedly still difficult to come by for the average consumer? Whether good or bad, the economic crisis over the past few years appears to have improved consumers debt management behavior and card issuers have taken notice. Delinquency rates on bank cards are lower than at any time over the past five years and when compared to the start of 2009 when bank card delinquency was peaking; current performance has improved by over 40%. These figures have given bank card issuers the confidence to ease their underwriting standards and re-establish their acquisition strategies. What’s interesting however is the consumer segments that are driving this new growth. When analyzed by VantageScore, new credit card accounts are growing the fastest in the VantageScore D and F tiers with 46% and 53% increases year over year respectively. For comparison, VantageScore A and B tiers saw 5% and 1% increases during the same time period respectively. And although VantageScore D and F represent less than 10% of new bank card origination volume ($ limits), it is still surprising to see such a disparity in growth rates between the risk categories. While this is a clear indication that card issuers are making credit more readily available for all consumer segments, it will be interesting to see if the debt management lessons learned over the past few years will stick and delinquency rates will continue to remain low. If these growth rates are any indication, the card issuers are counting on it.
By: Kari Michel What are your acquisition strategies to increase consumer lending and gain market share? This blog will discuss new approaches to create segment-based targeting campaigns and the ability to precisely time the offer delivery with consumer needs. The most aggressive and successful banks are using need and attitudinal segmentation, coupled with models that identify consumers in the market for loan products. The return on marketing investment from these refined marketing efforts often exceed 350%, measured on a net of control basis, after all marketing costs. Here is a case study, using Experian tools, showing how one marketer used segment-based targeting, tailoring and timing to increase their response rate 145% over a competitor’s product. In the highly competitive credit card arena, a new business model is emerging that is dependent on acquiring new accounts from consumers that are grouped into specific behavior segments (Credit Hungry Card Switchers and Case Oriented Skeptics) and looking at consumers that were in the market, as well as had the highest likelihood of opening a bankcard account within the next 1 – 4 months. Test Results Total Competitor Experian Experian lift Quantity 624,000 623,953 Response Rate % 2.09% 3.03% 145% Actual Responses 13,035 18,902 Booked Rate % 1.64% 2.24% 137% Actual Booked 10,208 13,989 Approval Rate % 78.30% 74.01% 95% In addition to a 145% lift in response rate, over 3,700 more accounts were booked over the competition. These same tools, “In The Market Models” (developed using credit bureau data) and “Financial Personalities®”, can help your organization have a greater return on your direct marketing investment by increasing acquisition rates.
By: Wendy Greenawalt The final provisions included in The Credit Card Act will go into effect on August 22, 2010. Most lenders began preparing for these changes some time ago, and may have already begun adhering to the guidelines. However, I would like to talk about the provisions included and discuss the implications they will have on credit card lenders. The first provision is the implementation of penalty fee guidelines. This clause prohibits card issuers from charging fees that exceed the consumer’s violation of the account terms. For example, if a consumer’s minimum monthly payment on a credit card account was $15, and the lender charges a $39 late fee, this would be considered excessive as the penalty is greater than the consumers’ obligation on that account. Going forward, the maximum fee a lender could charge in this example would be $15 or equal to the consumers obligation. In addition to late fee limitations, lenders can no longer charge multiple penalty fees based on a single late payment, other account term violations or fees for account inactivity. These limitations will have a dramatic impact on portfolio profitability, and lenders will need to account for this with all accounts going forward. The second major provision mandates that if a lender increased a consumer’s annual interest rate after January 1, 2009 due to credit risk, market conditions, or other factors, then the lender must maintain reasonable methodologies and perform account reviews no less than every 6 months. If during the account review, the credit risk, market conditions or other factors that resulted in the interest rate increase have changed, the lender must adjust the interest rate down if warranted. This provision only affects interest rate increases and does not supply specific terms on the amount of the interest rate reduction required; so lenders must assess this independently to determine their individual compliance requirements on covered accounts. The Credit Card Act was a measure to create better policies for consumers related to credit card accounts and overall will provide greater visibility and fair account practices for all consumers. However, The Credit Card Act places more pressure on lenders to find other revenue streams to make up for revenue that was previously received when accounts were not paid by the due date, fees and additional interest rate income were generated. Over the next few years, lenders will have to find ways to make up this shortcoming and generate revenue through acquisition strategies and/or new business channels in order to maintain a profitable portfolio. http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20100303a.htm
By: Wendy Greenawalt Marketing is typically one of the largest expenses for an organization while also being a priority to reach short and long-term growth objectives. With the current economic environment, continuing to be unpredictable many organizations have reduced budgets and focused on more risk and recovery activities. However, in the coming year we expect to see improvements and organizations renew their focus to portfolio growth. We expect that campaign budgets will continue to be much lower than what was allocated before the mortgage meltdown but organizations are still looking for gains in efficiency and response to meet business objectives. Creation of optimized marketing strategies is quick and easy when leveraging optimization technology enabling your internal resources to focus on more strategic issues. Whether your objective is to increase organizational or customer level profit, growth in specific product lines or maximizing internal resources optimization can easily identify the right solution while adhering to key business objectives. The advanced software now available enables an organization to compare multiple campaign options simultaneously while analyzing the impact of modifications to revenue, response or other business metrics. Specifically, very detailed product offer information, contact channels, timing, and letter costs from multiple vendors and consumer preferences can all be incorporated into an optimization solution. Once defined the complex mathematical algorithm factors every combination of all variables, which could range in the thousands, are considered at the consumer level to determine the optimal treatment to maximize organizational goals and constraints. In addition, by incorporating optimized decisions into marketing strategies marketers can execute campaigns in a much shorter timeframe allowing an organization to capitalize on changing market conditions and consumer behaviors. To illustrate the benefit of optimization an Experian bankcard client was able to reduced analytical time to launch programs from 7 days to 90 minutes while improving net present value. In my next blog, we will discuss how organizations can cut costs when acquiring new accounts.
In a continuation of my previous entry, I’d like to take the concept of the first-mover and specifically discuss the relevance of this to the current bank card market. Here are some statistics to set the stage: • Q2 2009 bankcard origination levels are now at 54 percent of Q2 2008 levels • In Q2 2009, bankcard originations for subprime and deep-subprime were down 63 percent from Q2 2008 • New average limits for bank cards are down 19 percent in Q2 2009 from peak in Q3 2008 • Total unused limits continued to decline in Q3 2009, decreasing by $100 billion in Q3 2009 Clearly, the bank card market is experiencing a decline in credit supply, along with deterioration of credit performance and problematic delinquency trends, and yet in order to grow, lenders are currently determining the timing and manner in which to increase their presence in this market. In the following points, I’ll review just a few of the opportunities and risks inherent in each area that could dictate how this occurs. Lender chooses to be a first-mover: • Mining for gold – lenders currently have an opportunity to identify long-term profitable segments within larger segments of underserved consumers. Credit score trends show a number of lower-risk consumers falling to lower score tiers, and within this segment, there will be consumers who represent highly profitable relationships. Early movers have the opportunity to access these consumers with unrealized creditworthiness at their most receptive moment, and thus have the ability to achieve extraordinary profits in underserved segments. • Low acquisition costs – The lack of new credit flowing into the market would indicate a lack of competitiveness in the bank card acquisitions space. As such, a first-mover would likely incur lower acquisitions costs as consumers have fewer options and alternatives to consider. • Adverse selection - Given the high utilization rates of many consumers, lenders could face an abnormally high adverse selection issue, where a large number of the most risky consumers are likely to accept offers to access much needed credit – creating risk management issues. • Consumer loyalty – Whether through switching costs or loyalty incentives, first-movers have an opportunity to achieve retention benefits from the development of new client relationships in a vacant competitive space. Lender chooses to be a secondary or late-mover: • Reduced risk by allowing first-mover to experience growing pains before entry. The implementation of new acquisitions and risk-based pricing management techniques with new bank card legislation will not be perfected immediately. Second-movers will be able to read and react to the responses to first movers’ strategies (measuring delinquency levels in new subprime segments) and refine their pricing and policy approaches. • One of the most common first-mover advantages is the presence of switching costs by the customer. With minimal switching costs in place in the bank card industry, the ability for second-movers to deal with an incumbent is not one where switching costs are significant issues – second-movers would be able to steal market share with relative ease. • Cherry-picked opportunities – as noted above, many previously attractive consumers will have been engaged by the first-mover, challenging the second-mover to find remaining attractive segments within the market. For instance, economic deterioration has resulted in short-term joblessness for some consumers who might be strong credit risks, given the return of capacity to repay. Once these consumers are mined by the first-mover, the second-mover will likely incur greater costs to acquire these clients. Whether lenders choose to be first to market, or follow as a second-mover, there are profitable opportunities and risk management challenges associated with each strategy. Academics and bloggers continue to debate the merits of each, (1) but it is the ultimately lenders of today that will provide the proof. [1] http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/38/cdu.html
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