Tag: consumer credit
Trended attributes and consumer lending Digging deeper into consumer credit data can help provide new insights into trending behavior, providing more than just point-in-time credit evaluation. The information derived through trended attributes can help you understand your customers’: Payment rates and account migration behavior. Slope of balance changes. Delinquency patterns over time. Today’s consumer lending environment is more dynamic and competitive than ever. Trended attributes can give additional lift in your segmentation strategies and custom models and provides a high-definition lens that opens a world of opportunity. Learn more
In 2017, a meaningful jump in consumer sentiment bolstered spending, and caused the spread between disposable personal income and consumer spending to reach an all-time high. This increase in spread was mostly financed through consumer debt, which according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has brought total consumer debt to a new peak of $12.8 Trillion surpassing the prior peak in 2008. The Experian eighth annual State of Credit report greatly supported the consumer behavior trends observed for the past year. Spanning the generations It is no surprise that generation Z (the “Great Recession Generation”) is conservative and prudent in their approach to credit because they are the most familiar with the post financial crisis economy. Results showed Millennials experienced a drop in overall debt, and an increase in mortgage debt reflects the national homeownership affordability challenge facing this generation. As first time homebuyers, millennials have to relatively tighten their spending as they dedicate an ever-growing portion of their income to housing. On the other end of the spectrum, the results of the study showed that Baby Boomers’ had sizable debt (including mortgage debt), which reflects the generation’s intent to stay active in their communities and in their homes much longer than prior generations have done. A recent Harvard study reported that by 2035, one out of three American households will be headed by an individual 65 years of age or older, compared to current ratio of one out of five households. What’s on the horizon? It is reasonable to assume that these trends may continue into 2018, as the underlying conditions continue to persist. A closer eye should be kept on student and auto loans due to the significant increase in portfolio size and increasing default rates compare to other debt. Editor’s note: This post was written by Fadel N. Lawandy, Director of the C. Larry Hoag Center for Real Estate and Finance and the Janes Financial Center at the George L. Argyros School of Business and Economics, Chapman University. Fadel joined the George L. Argyors School of Business and Economics, Chapman University after retiring as a Portfolio Manager from Morgan Stanly Smith Barney in 2009. He has two decades of experience in the financial industry with banking, credit management, commercial/residential real estate acquisition and financing, corporate finance, mergers and acquisitions, quantitative and qualitative analysis and research, and portfolio management. Fadel currently serves as the Chairman of the Board and President of CFA Society Orange County, and is an active member of the CFA Institute.
The average number of retail trades per consumer has been trending down since 2007. But the average consumer retail debt is trending up, roughly $73 year-over-year. When analyzing single-store credit card debt by state in 2017, we found: States with the highest retail debt: Texas ($2,198) Alaska ($2,170) Arkansas ($2,067) States with the lowest amount of retail debt: Wisconsin ($1,374) Minnesota ($1,440) Hawaii ($1,442) Whether you’re a retailer, credit union or financial institution, stay ahead of the competition by using advanced analytics to target the right customers and increase profitability. More credit trends
Credit card balances grew to $786.6 billion at the end of 2017, a 6.7% increase to the previous year and the largest outstanding balance in over a decade. And while the delinquency rate increased slightly to 2.26%, it is significantly lower than the 4.73% delinquency rate in 2008 when outstanding balances were $737 billion. The increase in credit card balances combined with the slight growth in delinquencies points to a positive credit environment. Stay up to date on the latest credit trends to maximize your lending strategies and capitalize on areas of opportunity. Get more credit trends and insights at our webinar on March 8. Register here
Our 8th annual State of Credit report shows that consumer credit scores and signs of economic recovery continue on an upward trend, coming close to a prerecession environment. The average U.S. credit score is up 2 points to 675 from last year and is just 4 points away from the 2007 average. Originations are increasing across nearly all loan types, with personal loans and automotive loans showing 11% and 6% increases year-over-year, respectively. Consumer confidence is up 25% year-over-year and has increased more than 16% from this period in 2007. With employment and consumer confidence rising, the economy is expected to expand at a healthy pace this year and continue to rebound from the recession. Now is the time to capitalize on this promising credit trend. State of Credit 2017
School is nearly back in session. You know what that means? The next wave of college students is taking out their first student loans. It’s a milestone moment – and likely the first trade on the credit file for many of these individuals. According to the College Board, the average cost of tuition and fees for the 2016–2017 school year was $33,480 at private colleges, $9,650 for state residents at public colleges, and $24,930 for out-of-state residents attending public universities. So really, regardless of where students go, the cost of a college education is big. In fact, from January 2006 to July 2016, the Consumer Price Index for college tuition and fees increased 63 percent. So, unless mom and dad did a brilliant job saving, chances are many of today’s students will take on at least some debt to foot the college bill. But it’s not just the young who are consumed by student loan debt. In Experian’s latest State of Student Lending report, we dive into how the $1.4 trillion in student loan debt for Americans is impacting all generations in regards to credit scores, debt load and delinquencies. The document additionally looks at geographical trends, noting which states have the most consumers with student loan debt and which ones have the least. Overall, we discovered 13.4% of U.S. consumers have one or more student loan balances on their credit file with an average total balance of $34k. Additionally, these consumers have an average of 3.7 student loans with 1.2 student loans in deferment. The average VantageScore® for student loan carriers is 650. As we looked across the generations, every group – from the Silents (age 70+) to Gen Z (oldest are between 18 to 20) had some student loan debt. While we can make assumptions that the Silents and Boomers are likely taking out these loans to support the educational pursuits of their children and grandchildren, it can be mixed for Gen X, who might still be paying off their own loans and/or supporting their own kids. Gen X members also reported the largest average student loan total balance at $39,802. Gen Z, the newest members to the credit file, have just started to attend college, thus their generation has the largest percent of student loan balances in deferment at 77%. Their average student loan total balance is also the lowest of all generations at $11,830, but that is to be expected given their young ages. In regards to geographical trends, the Northern states tended to sport the highest average student loan total balances, with consumers in Washington D.C. winning that race with $52.5k. Southern states, on the other hand, reported higher percentages of consumers with student loan balances 90+ days past due. South Carolina, Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas and Texas held the top spots in the delinquency category. Access the complete State of Student Lending report. Data from this report is representative of student loan data on file as of June 2017.
CFPB and credit invisibles A recent study by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) found that American consumers establish credit differently depending on their economic background. The study revealed that: Consumers in lower-income areas are 240% more likely to become credit visible due to negative information, such as a debt in collection. Those in higher-income areas become credit visible in a more positive way. For example, these consumers are 30% more likely to become credit visible through the use of a credit card. The percentage of consumers transitioning to credit visibility due to student loans more than doubled in the last 10 years. Policymakers can make it easier for consumers to become more credit visible by clearly defining the term alternative data and supporting the use of alternative data sources that meet legal and societal standards for accuracy, validity, predictability and fairness. Learn more >
1 in 10 Americans are living paycheck to paycheck Financial health means more than just having a great credit score or money in a savings account. It includes being able to manage daily finances, save for the future and weather a financial shock. Here are some facts about Americans’ financial health: 46% of Americans are struggling financially. Roughly 31% of nonretired adults have no retirement savings or pension. Approximately 50% are unprepared for a financial emergency, and about 1 in 5 have no savings set aside to cover unexpected emergencies. It’s never too late for people to achieve financial health. By providing education on money management, you can drive new opportunities for increased engagement, loyalty and long-term revenue streams. Why financial health matters >
This summer, Experian is releasing the market’s first-ever credit solution that enables consumers to apply for credit with a simple text message. Utilizing patent-pending mobile identification through our Smart Lookup process, most consumers will be recognized by their device credentials and in turn bypass the need to fill out a lengthy credit application. To learn more about this new technology and how the innovation came to market, we interviewed Steve Yin, Experian’s Vice President of New Ventures for the DataLabs. Yin has worked with a few dozen clients to gain feedback and gauge interest on this idea, which was birthed in early spring 2016. 1. Tell me about Experian’s DataLabs. How long has it existed and what type of work is produced here? The DataLabs was started a bit over six years ago by Eric Haller – current Global EVP of the DataLabs – with the vision of providing an advanced data R&D, analytics, and incubation capability for Experian and our largest clients. The group started with one lab in San Diego supporting a handful of business units in North America. Today we have DataLabs on three continents supporting all the business units and geographies where Experian does business around the world. The work we focus on is usually new market and new data/technology. We endeavor to follow an experimental design approach in most of our projects and products: identify a problem, develop a hypothesis, and execute on research to germinate a solution. Given our relatively small size compared to Experian overall, we must be very disciplined about the types of projects and products we take on. We filter projects by potential impact (big marketing, complex problems, leveraged opportunities) and probability of success. Our projects are initiated by one of three primary avenues: client discussion/request, internal discussion/request, and organic discovery within the DataLabs. 2. Text for CreditTM is one of Experian’s newest products, and I understand the DataLabs was instrumental in the development from concept to end-product. How did this idea emerge and shape in the Lab? The concept evolved after talking with our clients who were trying to figure out how they could provide access to credit to potential customers through their mobile devices. With the explosion of smartphones and the attachment people have to them, it felt odd that the credit application process had not evolved to synch up with the mobile experience individuals enjoy in every other aspect of their lives. Customers don’t want to fill out lengthy forms to apply for credit, nor do they want to discover they may not qualify for a credit offer at the cash register after being invited to open a store card. We wanted to find a way to provide the customer with the ability to apply for credit seamlessly on their devices, limiting the fields of data they needed to supply, and also enhance the overall credit experience for retailers and consumers. Our DataLabs allow us the runway to preform breakthrough experimentations with data. After trial and error with many different approaches in the lab, we knew we had a winner with text for credit. It’s easy to use, the customer experience is frictionless, it requires minimal infrastructure from our clients and it can be implemented to solve for a large variety of instant credit situations. 3. What excites you most about this product? This has been a fun project. There are several things that make it cool, and most revolve around the reception we’ve had with clients, knowing that we’re delivering something innovative and useful to our clients, their partners and ultimately to consumers. We’re enabling a segment of the consumer landscape to interact with financial institutions on their own terms, from their mobile devices. 4. Have clients been closely involved in providing feedback on the concept and overall product design? Definitely. We’ve been working with clients on refining the concept, design and delivery of Text for Credit since almost day one. We learned very early on that private branding and a flexible user experience would be important since clients have different needs and desires relative to user flow. We also learned that simple integration with existing systems would enable adoption. And critically, we confirmed that providing a total solution rather than small components would enable us to position Text for Credit very differently and facilitate a great end-user experience for our clients. 5. Mobile is now clearly a dominant channel for consumers, and it only makes sense for lenders to embrace it. Is there more on the horizon for the world of mobile and credit optimization? Text for Credit is a beachhead of our broader mobile discovery and development. As clients begin to embrace delivery of credit in a mobile-first environment, we can foresee evolutions like the location-based triggers and integration with cross-channel marketing initiatives spanning social media, paid electric media, market places, and perhaps even integration with voice. In addition to this broadening of offerings, we may also look to creating greater functional value for clients in specific verticals where mobile devices are inherently suited for data and decision delivery. This could include streamlined credit in retail, auto, and mortgage markets where being able to offer credit at the right time, at the right place, to the right people would deliver great value for our clients. I think we’re in a unique position as a company to deliver on this promise within the credit space. Learn more
Millennials have long been the hot topic over the course of the past few years with researchers, brands and businesses all seeking to understand this large group of people. As they buy homes, start families and try to conquest their hefty student loan burdens, all will be watching. Still, there is a new crew coming of age. Enter Gen Z. It is estimated that they make up ¼ of the U.S. population, and by 2020 they will account for 40% of all consumers. Understanding them will be critical to companies wanting to succeed in the next decade and beyond. The oldest members of this next cohort are between the ages of 18 and 20, and the youngest are still in elementary school. But ultimately, they will be larger than the mystical Millennials, and that means more bodies, more buying power, more to learn. Experian recently took a first look at the oldest members of this generation, seeking to gain insights into how they are beginning to use credit. In regards to credit scores, the eldest Gen Z members sported a VantageScore® of 631 in 2016. By comparison, younger Millennials were at 626 and older Millennials were at 638. Given their young age, Gen Z debt levels are low with an average debt-to-income at just 5.7%. Their tradelines largely consist of bankcards, auto and student loans. Their average income is at $33.8k. For their total annual plastic spend, data reveals this oldest group of Gen Z spent about $9.5k, slightly more than the younger Millennials who came in at roughly $9k. Surprisingly, there was a very small group of Gen Z already on file with a mortgage, but this figure was less than .5%. Auto loans were also small, but likely to grow. Of those Gen Z members who have a credit file, an estimated 12% have an auto trade. This is just the beginning, and as they age, their credit files will thicken, and more insights will be gained around how they are managing credit, debt and savings. While they are young today, some studies say they already receive about $17 a week in allowance, equating to about $44 billion annually in purchase power in the U.S. Factor in their influence on parental or household purchases and the number could be closer to $200 billion! For all brands, financial services companies included, it is obvious they will need to engage with this generation in not just a digital manner, but a mobile manner. They are being raised in an era of instant, always-on access. They expect a quick, seamless and customized mobile experience. Retailers have 8 seconds or less — err on the side of less — to capture their attention. In general, marketers and lenders should consider the following suggestions: Message with authenticity Maintain a long-term vision Connect them with something bigger Provide education for financial literacy and of course Keep up with technological advances. Learn more by accessing our recorded webinar, A First Look at Gen Z and Credit.
Sometimes life throws you a curve ball. The unexpected medical bill. The catastrophic car repair. The busted home appliance. It happens, and the killer is that consumers don’t always have the savings or resources to cover an additional cost. They must make a choice. Which bills do they pay? Which bills go to the pile? Suddenly, a consumer’s steady payment behavior changes, and in some cases they lose control of their ability to fulfill their obligations altogether. These shifts in payment patterns aren’t always reflected in consumer credit scores. At a single point in time, consumers may look identical. However, when analyzing their past payment behaviors, differences emerge. With these insights, lenders can now determine the appropriate risk or marketing decisions. In the example below, we see that based on the trade-level data, Consumer A and Consumer B have the same credit score and balance. But once we see their payment pattern within their trended data, we can clearly see Consumer A is paying well over the minimum payments due and has a demonstrated ability to pay. A closer look at Consumer B, on the other hand, reveals that the payment amount as compared to the minimum payment amount is decreasing over time. In fact, over the last three months only the minimum payment has been made. So while Consumer B may be well within the portfolio risk tolerance, they are trending down. This could indicate payment stress. With this knowledge, the lender could decide to hold off on offering Consumer B any new products until an improvement is seen in their payment pattern. Alternatively, Consumer A may be ripe for a new product offering. In another example, three consumers may appear identical when looking at their credit score and average monthly balance. But when you look at the trend of their historical bankcard balances as compared to their payments, you start to see very different behaviors. Consumer A is carrying their balances and only making the minimum payments. Consumer B is a hybrid of revolving and transacting, and Consumer C is paying off their balances each month. When we look at the total annual payments and their average percent of balance paid, we can see the biggest differences emerge. Having this deeper level of insight can assist lenders with determining which consumer is the best prospect for particular offerings. Consumer A would likely be most interested in a low- interest rate card, whereas Consumer C may be more interested in a rewards card. The combination of the credit score and trended data provides significant insight into predicting consumer credit behavior, ultimately leading to more profitable lending decisions across the customer lifecycle: Response – match the right offer with the right prospect to maximize response rates and improve campaign performance Risk – understand direction and velocity of payment performance to adequately manage risk exposure Retention – anticipate consumer preferences to build long-term loyalty All financial institutions can benefit from the value of trended data, whether you are a financial institution with significant analytical capabilities looking to develop custom models from the trended data or looking for proven pre-built solutions for immediate implementation.
Knowing a consumer’s credit information at a single point in time only tells part of the story. I often hear one of our Experian leaders share the example of two horses, running neck-in-neck, at the races. Who will win? Well, if you had multiple insights into those two horses – and could see the race in segments – you might notice one horse losing steam, and the other making great strides. In the world of credit consumers, the same metaphor can ring true. You might have two consumers with identical credit scores, but Consumer A has been making minimum payments for months and showing some payment stress, while Consumer B has been aggressively making larger pay-offs. Trended data adds that color to the story, and suddenly there is more intel on who to market to for future offers. To understand the whole story, lenders need the ability to assess a consumer’s credit behavior over time. Understanding how a consumer uses credit or pays back debt over time can help lenders: Offer the right products & terms to increase response rates Determine up sell and cross sell opportunities Prevent attrition Identify profitable customers Avoid consumers with payment stress Limit loss exposure The challenge with trended data, however, is finding a way to sort through the payment patterns in the midst of huge datasets. At the singular level, one consumer might have 10 trades. Trended data in turn reveals five historical payment fields and then you multiple all of this by 24 months and you suddenly have 1,200 data points. But let’s be real … a lender is not going to look at just one consumer as they consider their marketing or retention campaigns. They may look at 100,000 consumers. And on that scale you are now looking at sorting through 120M data points. So while a lender may think they need trended data – and there is definitely value in accessing it – they likely also need a solution to help them wade through it all, assessing and decisioning on those 120M data points. Tapping into something like Credit3D, which bundles in propensity scores, profitability models and trended attributes, is the solution that truly unveils the value of trended data insights. By layering in these solutions, lenders can clearly answer questions like: Who is likely to respond to an offer? How does a consumer use credit? How can I identify revolvers, transactors and consolidators? Is there a better way to understand risk or to conduct swap set analysis? How can I acquire profitable consumers? How do I increase wallet share and usage? Trended data sounds like a “no-brainer” and it definitely has the ability to shed light on that consumer credit horse race. Lenders, however, also need to have the appropriate analytics and systems to assess on the huge volume of data points. Need more information on Trended Data and Credit 3D? Contact Us
As lenders seek to enhance their credit marketing strategies this year, they are increasingly questioning how to split their budgets between digital, direct mail and beyond. What is the ideal media mix to reach consumers in 2017? And is the solution different in the financial services space? Scott Gordon, Experian\'s senior director of digital credit marketing, recently tackled some of the tough questions financial services marketers are posing. Here are his responses: Q: We live in a world where consumers are receiving hundreds of messages and offers on a daily basis. How can financial services companies stand out and capture the attention of the customers they wish to engage with relevant offers? A: When it comes to the optimal marketing media mix, there is no “silver bullet.” It varies from product to product. The current post-campaign analysis is showing us that consumers react positively to coordinated multi-channel messaging. We’ve seen studies showing that marketers can see up to a 30% lift in sales by combining email with social media, for example. This makes sense, when you look at how consumers engage through devices. We are no longer a single channel culture; we check Facebook while watching TV, listen to podcasts while checking our email, etc. Consequently, marketers have had to adapt their campaign strategies accordingly – and this starts with the organizational structure. Far too often we see silo’ed groups responsible for disparate media verticals. For example, a company may have a direct mail group and a digital marketing team, and then (in extreme cases) outsource television to one agency group and social media to another. Aligning these groups and breaking down the barriers between the groups is a critical first step toward building a true multi-channel campaign strategy. This includes addressing budget concerns that are inherent with a culture where the size of a budget is tied to job security and corporate status. Aligning campaigns and finding the perfect cross channel market mix is much easier once you’ve broken down internal barriers and encouraged marketing collaboration. Q: What are some of the new best practices financial companies must embrace in 2017 in order to improve their marketing efforts? A: Thanks to tremendous efforts from industry leaders, we can now utilize regulated data with the same proficiency that they’ve been executing campaigns using non-regulated data. This presents unique challenges, as the industry races to get up-to-speed on new capabilities, take best-in-breed practices and apply them to the world of regulated campaigns. We’re seeing tremendous demand to combine programmatic advertising with people-based advertising, with cross-channel campaigns spanning mobile, video, social, and addressable TV. Measurement and analytics must play a large part in these strategies. While the industry hasn’t achieved true cross-channel measurement to identify a consumer’s path to purchase across multiple devices, it’s getting closer, thanks to technology advances. Q: Is direct mail dead? How should financial marketers be using direct mail in 2017? How can it best be combined with digital? A: Direct mail is certainly not dead. It has its place among a media mix that continues to grow as new advertising technologies come to market and are adopted by consumers. Will direct mail’s influence diminish in the future? Possibly. At Experian, we are focused on making sure that our advertisers can reach consumers where they spend time, when they are most receptive to receiving messages, and most importantly in a cost-effective manner. So no matter where consumers shift their focus in the future, we’ll be able to support comprehensive targeted advertising campaigns. How can digital be best combined with direct mail? We’ve seen encouraging results in retargeting direct mail with digital credit marketing like email and display. With that said, we haven’t seen a silver bullet solution, and we’re still advising our clients to put a heavy focus toward “test and learn” in concert with comprehensive campaign measurement and analytics protocols. Q: What are the advantages to serving up a firm offer of credit to a consumer in a digital format? Are consumers ready to embrace this type of delivery in the financial services space? A: The advantages of serving up a firm offer of credit to a consumer in a digital format are similar to those benefits for “traditional” digital marketing. Lower cost, more measurement capabilities, and greater flexibility to optimize campaigns are just some of the benefits. Early indications show that consumers are very receptive to digital credit marketing offers. It provides them with offers in the channels in which they spend time, in a consumer friendly manner which offers them numerous paths in which they can have a voice in the messages that they receive. Q: Some say digital credit marketing should largely be directed to Millennials? Do you think other generations are ready to embrace this type of digital messaging? A: We don’t view digital credit marketing as an exclusive offering just for Millennials. It is a holistic consumer offering – applicable to all generations as our parents and grandparents make the move to new channels such as addressable TV and social media. Need more info on Digital Credit Marketing? Learn More
Prescreen, prequalification and preapproval. The terms sound similar, but lenders beware. These credit solutions are quite different and regulations vary depending on which product is utilized. Let’s break it down … What’s involved with a Prescreen? Prescreen is a behind-the-scenes process that screens consumers for a firm offer of credit without their knowledge. Typically, a Credit Reporting Agency, like Experian, will compile a list of consumers who meet specific credit criteria, and then provide the list to a lending institution. Consumers then see messaging like, “You have been approved for a new credit card.” Sometimes, marketing offers use the phrase “You have been preapproved,” but, by definition, these are prescreened offers and have specific notice and screening requirements. This solution is often used to help credit grantors reduce the overall cost of direct mail solicitations by eliminating unqualified prospects, reducing high-risk accounts and targeting the best prospects more effectively before mailing. A firm offer of credit and inquiry posting is required. And, it’s important to note that prescreened offers are governed by the Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA). Specifically, the FCRA requires lenders initiating a prescreen to: Provide special notices to consumers offered credit based on the prescreened list; Extend firm offers of credit to consumers who passed the prescreening, but allows lenders to limit the offers to those who passed the prescreening; Maintain records regarding the prescreened lists; and Allow for consumers to opt-out of prescreened offers. Lenders and the Consumer Reporting Agencies must scrub the list against the opt-outs. Finally, it is important to note that a soft inquiry is always logged to the consumer’s credit file during the prescreen process. What’s involved with a Prequalification? Prequalification, on the other hand, is a consumer consent-based credit screening tool where the consumer opts-in to see which credit products they may be qualified for in real time at the point of contact. Unlike a prescreen which is initiated by the lender, the prequalification is initiated by the consumer. In this instance, envision a consumer visiting a bank and inquiring about whether or not they would qualify for a credit card. During a prequalification, the lender can actually explore if the consumer would be eligible for multiple credit products – perhaps a personal loan or HELOC as well. The consumer can then decide if they would like to proceed with the offer(s). A soft inquiry is always logged to the consumer’s credit file, and the consumer can be presented with multiple credit options for qualification. No firm offer of credit is required, but adverse action may be required, and it is up to the client’s legal counsel to determine the manner, content, and timing of adverse action. When the consumer is ready to apply, a hard inquiry must be logged to the consumer’s file for the underwriting process. How will a prequalification or prescreen invitation/offer impact a consumer’s credit report? Inquiries generated by prequalification offers will appear on a consumer’s credit report, but can only be seen by the consumer when they specifically request a report from the credit bureaus. Soft inquiries are never included in credit score calculations. For “soft” inquiries, in both prescreen and prequalification instances, there is no impact to the consumer’s credit score. However, once the consumer elects to proceed with officially applying for and/or accepting a new line of credit, the hard inquiry will be noted in the consumer’s report, and the credit score may be impacted. Typically, a hard inquiry subtracts a few points from a consumer’s credit score, but only for a year, depending on the scoring model. --- Each of these product solutions have their place among lenders. Just be careful about using the terms interchangeably and ensure you understand the regulatory compliance mandates attached to each. More info on Prequalification More Info on Prescreen
Personal loans have been booming for the past couple of years with double-digit growth year-over-year. But the party can’t last forever, right? In a recent Experian webinar, experts noted they have seen originations leveling off. In fact, numbers indicate it’s gone from leveled off to a slight year-over-year decline. They projected the first quarter of calendar year 2017 may also be down, but then we’ll see a peak again in the second quarter, which is typical with the seasonality often associated with personal loans. The landscape is changing. A recent data pull revealed a 9-point shift in the average VantageScore® for originations from Q3 to Q4 of 2016. Lenders are digging deeper in order to keep their loan volumes up, and it is definitely a more competitive marketplace. The days where lenders were once able to grow their personal loan business with little effort are gone. Kelley Motley, Experian’s director of analytics, noted some of the personal loan origination volume shifts may be due to the rebound in the housing market and increased housing values, enabling super-prime and prime consumers to now also consider home equity loans and lines of credit, in lieu of personal loans. Still, the personal loan market is healthy. Lenders just need to be smart about their marketing efforts and utilize data to improve their response rates, expand their risk criteria to identify consumers trending upward in the credit ranks, and then retain them as their cash-flow and financial situations evolve. In the presentation, experts revealed a few interesting stats: 67% of those that open a personal installment loan had a revolving trade with a balance >$0 5% of consumer that close a personal loan reopen another within a few months of the original loan closure 68% of consumers that re-open a new personal loan within a short timeframe of closing another personal loan do so with the same company Together, these stats illustrate that individuals are largely leveraging personal loans to consolidate debt or perhaps fund an expense like a vacation or an unexpected event. Once the consumer comes into cash, they’ll pay off the loan, but consider revisiting a personal loan again if their financial situation warrants it. The calendar year Q2 peak has been consistent since the Great Recession. For many consumers, after racking up holiday debt and end-of-year expenses, the bills start coming in during the first quarter. With the high APRs often attached to revolving cards, there is a sense of urgency to consolidate and lock in a more reasonable rate. Others utilize the personal loan to fund weddings, vacations and home improvement projects. Kyle Matthies, a senior product manager for Experian, reminded participants that most people don’t need your product, so it’s essential to leverage data find those that do. Utilizing propensity score and attributes, as well as tools to dig into ability-to-pay metrics and offer alignment can really fine-tune both an organization’s marketing and retention strategies. To learn more about the current state of personal loans, access our free webinar How lenders can capitalize on the growth in personal loans.
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