Tag: credit risk

Shannon Lois, Experian’s Head of DA Analytics and Consulting and Bryan Collins, Senior Product Manager, tackled questions for lenders amidst COVID-19.

This is the second in a series of blog posts highlighting AI, optimization, and decisioning for lending operations in times of extreme uncertainty.

The second of a three-part series, mitigating risk and addressing operational challenges are key considerations for a market downturn.

The need for a COVID-19 response is high. This blog series will outline key areas to focus on including risk, consumer behavior, compliance and operations.

The DMV is embracing technology to improve overall customer experience, and financial institutions can benefit from doing the same.

Alex Lintner, Group President at Experian, recently had the chance to sit down with Peter Renton, creator of the Lend Academy Podcast, to discuss alternative credit data,1 UltraFICO, Experian Boost and expanding the credit universe. Lintner spoke about why Experian is determined to be the leader in bringing alternative credit data to the forefront of the lending marketplace to drive greater access to credit for consumers. “To move the tens of millions of “invisible” or “thin file” consumers into the financial mainstream will take innovation, and alternative data is one of the ways which we can do that,” said Lintner. Many U.S. consumers do not have a credit history or enough record of borrowing to establish a credit score, making it difficult for them to obtain credit from mainstream financial institutions. To ease access to credit for these consumers, financial institutions have sought ways to both extend and improve the methods by which they evaluate borrowers’ risk. By leveraging machine learning and alternative data products, like Experian BoostTM, lenders can get a more complete view into a consumer’s creditworthiness, allowing them to make better decisions and consumers to more easily access financial opportunities. Highlights include: The impact of Experian Boost on consumers’ credit scores Experian’s take on the state of the American consumer today Leveraging machine learning in the development of credit scores Expanding the marketable universe Listen now Learn more about alternative credit data 1When we refer to "Alternative Credit Data," this refers to the use of alternative data and its appropriate use in consumer credit lending decisions, as regulated by the Fair Credit Reporting Act. Hence, the term "Expanded FCRA Data" may also apply in this instance and both can be used interchangeably.

Experian is ushering a new age of consumer empowerment with Experian Boost, which eliminates the guesswork of what goes into a credit score.

There's a lot of talk about alternative credit data today, but not all of it is factual. Dispel the myths and learn what the truth about alternative data.

Critical for businesses being confronted first party fraud is to understand fraud management vs. credit risk management. First party fraud is...

Understanding the importance of customer experience to business strategy and performance

Using a risk model based on older data can result in reduced predictive power.

By: Staci Baker It seems like every time I turn on the TV there is another natural disaster. Tsunami in Japan, tornadoes and flooding in the Mid-West United States, earthquakes and forest fires – everywhere; and these disasters are happening worldwide. They are not confined to one location. If a disaster were to happen near any of your offices, would you be prepared? Living in Southern California, this is something I think of often. Especially, since we are supposed to have had “the big one” for the past several years now. When developing a preparedness plan for a company, there are several things to take into consideration. Some are obvious, such as how to keep employees safe, developing steps for IT  to take to ensure data is protected , including an identity theft prevention program, and establishing contingency business plans in case a disaster directly hits your business and doors need to remain closed for several days, weeks, or …. But, what about the non-obvious items that should be included in a disaster preparedness plan? When a natural disaster hits, there is an increase in fraud. So much so, that after Hurricane Katrina battered the Gulf, the Hurricane Katrina Fraud Task Force, now known as the National Center for Disaster Fraud, was created. In addition to the items listed above, I recommend including the following. Create a plan that will put fraud alerts in place to minimize fraud.  Fraud alerts are not just to notify your clients when there is fraudulent activity on their accounts. Alerts should also be put in place to let you know when there is fraudulent activity within your own business as well. Depending on the type of disaster, delinquency rates may increase, since borrower funds may be diverted to other needs. Implement a disaster collections strategy, which may include modifying credit terms, managing credit risk, and loan loss provisioning. Although these are only a few things to be considered when developing a disaster preparedness plan, I hope it gets you thinking about what your company needs to do to be prepared. What are some things you have already done, or that are on your to do list to prepare your company for the next big event that may affect you?

I love a good analogy, and living in Southern California, lately I’ve been thinking a lot about earthquakes, and how lenders might want to start thinking like seismologists when considering the risk levels in their portfolios. Currently, scientists that study earthquakes review mountains of data around fault movement, tidal forces, even animal behavior, all in an attempt to find a concrete predictor of ‘the big one’. Small tremors are inputs, but the focus is on predicting and preparing for the large shock and impact of large earthquakes. Credit risk modeling, conversely, seems to focus on predicting the tremors, (risk scores that predict the risk of individual default) and less so the large-shock risk to the portfolio. So what are lenders doing to forecast ‘the big one’?  Lenders are building sophisticated models that contemplate the likelihood of the big event – developing risk models and econometric models that look at loan repayment, house prices, unemployment rates – all in an attempt to be ahead of the credit version of ‘the big one’.  This type of model and perspective is at a nascent stage for many lenders, but like the issues facing the people of Southern California, preparing for the big-one is an essential part of every lender’s planning in today’s economy.

By: Staci Baker On September 12, 2010, the new Basel III rules were passed in Basel, Switzerland. These new rules aim to increase the liquidity of banks over the next decade, thereby mitigating the risk of bank failures and mergers that transpired during the recent financial crisis. Currently, banks must maintain capital reserves of 4% on their balance sheet to account for enterprise risk. Starting January 1, 2013, banks will be required to progressively increase their capital reserves, known as tier 1 capital, to 4.5%. By the end of 2019, this reserve will need to be 6%.  Banks will also be required to keep an emergency reserve, or “conservation buffer,” of 2.5%. What does this mean for banks? And, what are some tools that banks can use in assessing credit risk? By increasing capital reserves, banks will be more stable in times of economic hardship. The conservation buffer is meant to help absorb losses during times of economic stress, which means banks will be in a better position to maintain economic progress in the most challenging economic circumstances. The capital reserve designated by the Group of Governors and Heads of Supervision is the minimum requirement each bank will be held to. Each bank will need to assess their current risk levels, and run stress tests to ensure they are in a good financial position, and are able to sustain strong financial health during a failing economy. Stress tests should be run for different time intervals, which will allow lenders to assess future losses and to plan capital satisfactoriness accordingly. This type of credit risk analysis is possible through applications such as Moody’s CreditCycle Plus, powered by Experian, that allow for stress testing, and profit and loss forecasting.  These applications will measure future performance of consumer credit portfolios under various economic scenarios, measured against industry benchmarks. ______________ Bank for International Settlements, 9/12/10, http://bis.org/press/p100912.htm

With the news from the Federal Reserve that joblessness is not declining, and in fact is growing, a number of consumers are going to face newly difficult times and be further challenged to meet their credit obligations. Thinking about how this might impact the already struggling mortgage market, I’ve been considering what the impact of joblessness is on the incidence of strategic default and the resulting risk management issues for lenders. Using the definitions from our previous studies on strategic default, I think it’s quite clear that increased joblessness will definitely increase the number of ‘cash-flow managers’ and ‘distressed borrowers’, as newly jobless consumers face reduced income and struggle to pay their bills. But, will a loss of income also mean that people become more likely to strategically default? By definition, the answer is no – a strategic defaulter has the capacity to pay, but chooses not to, mostly due to their equity position in the home. But, I can’t help but consider a consumer who is 20% underwater, but making payments when employed, deciding that the same 20% that used to be acceptable to bear, is now illogical and will simply choose to stop payment? Although only a short-term fix, since they can use far less of their savings by simply ceasing to pay their mortgage, this would free up significant cash (or savings) for paying car loans, credit cards, college loans, etc; and yet, this practice would maintain the profile of a strategic defaulter. While it’s impossible to predict the true impact of joblessness, I would submit that beyond assessing credit risk, lenders need to consider that the definition of strategic default may contain a number of unique, and certainly evolving consumer risk segments. __________________________ http://money.cnn.com/2010/08/19/news/economy/initial_claims/index.htm