Tag: credit trends
By: Staci Baker Just before the holidays, the Fed released proposed rules, which implement Sections 165 and 166 of the Dodd-Frank Act. According to The American Bankers Association, “The proposals cover such issues as risk-based capital requirements, leverage, resolution planning, concentration limits and the Fed’s plans to regulate large, interconnected financial institutions and nonbanks.” How will these rules affect you? One of the biggest concerns that I have been hearing from institutions is the affect that the proposed rules will have on profitability. Greater liquidity requirements, created by both the Dodd-Frank Act and Basel III Rules, put pressure on banks to re-evaluate which lending segments they will continue to participate in, as well as impact the funds available for lending to consumers. What are you doing to proactively combat this? Within the Dodd-Frank Act is the Durbin Amendment, which regulates the interchange fee an issuer can charge a consumer. As I noted in my prior blog detailing the fee cap associated with the Durbin Amendment, it’s clear that these new regulations in combination with previous rulings will continue to put downward pressures on bank profitability. With all of this to consider, how will banks modify their business models to maintain a healthy bottom line, while keeping customers happy? Over my next few blog posts, I will take a look at the Dodd-Frank Act’s affect on an institution’s profitability and highlight best practices to manage the impact to your organization.
As we kick off the new year, I thought I’d dedicate a few blog posts to cover what some of the consumer credit trends are pointing to for potential growth opportunities in 2012, specifically on new loan originations for bankcard, automotive and real estate lending. With the holiday season behind us (and if you’re anything like me, you have the credit card statements to prove it!), I thought I’d start off with bankcards for my first post of the year. Everyone’s an optimist at the start of a new year and bankcard issuers have a right to feel cautiously optimistic about 2012 based on the trends of last year. In the second quarter of 2011, origination volumes grew to nearly $47B, up 28% from the same quarter a year earlier. Actually, originations have been steadily growing since the middle of 2010 with increasing distribution across all VantageScore risk bands and an impressive 42% increase in A paper volume. So, is bankcard the new power portfolio for growth in 2012? The broad origination risk distribution may signal the return of balance-carrying consumers (aka: revolvers) from those that pay with credit cards, but pay off the balance every month (aka: transactors). The tighter lending criteria imposed in recent years has improved portfolio performance significantly, but at the expense of interest fee profitability from revolver use. This could change as more credit cards are put in the hands of a broader consumer risk base. And as consumer confidence continues to grow, (it reached 64.5 in December, 10 points higher than November according to the Conference Board) , consumers in all risk categories will no doubt begin to leverage credit cards more heavily for continued discretionary spend, as highlighted in the most recent Experian – Oliver Wyman quarterly webinar. Of course, portfolio growth with the increased risk exposure requires a watchful eye on the delinquency performance of outstanding balances. We continue to be at or near historic lows for delinquency, but did see a small uptick in early stage delinquencies in the third quarter of 2011. That being said, issuers appear to have a good pulse on the card-carrying consumer and are capitalizing on the improved payment behavior to maximize their risk/reward payoff. So all-in-all, strong 2011 results and portfolio positioning has set the table for a promising 2012. Add an improving economy to the mix and card issuers could shift from cautious to confident in their optimism for the new year.
With the raising of the U.S. debt ceiling and its recent ramifications consuming the headlines over the past month, I began to wonder what would happen if the general credit consumer had made a similar argument to their credit lender. Something along the lines of, “Can you please increase my credit line (although I am maxed out)? I promise to reduce my spending in the future!” While novel, probably not possible. In fact, just the opposite typically occurs when an individual begins to borrow up to their personal “debt ceiling.” When the amount of credit an individual utilizes to what is available to them increases above a certain percentage, it can adversely affect their credit score, in turn affecting their ability to secure additional credit. This percentage, known as the utility rate is one of several factors that are considered as part of an individual’s credit score calculation. For example, the utilization rate makes up approximately 23% of an individual’s calculated VantageScore. The good news is that consumers as a whole have been reducing their utilization rate on revolving credit products such as credit cards and home equity lines (HELOCs) to the lowest levels in over two years. Bankcard and HELOC utilization is down to 20.3% and 49.8%, respectively according to the Q2 2011 Experian – Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports. In addition to lowering their utilization rate, consumers are also doing a better job of managing their current debt, resulting in multi-year lows for delinquency rates as mentioned in my previous blog post. By lowering their utilization and delinquency rates, consumers are viewed as less of a credit risk and become more attractive to lenders for offering new products and increasing credit limits. Perhaps the government could learn a lesson or two from today’s credit consumer.
By: Staci Baker As the economy has been hit by the hardest recession since the Great Depression, many people wonder how and when it will recover. And, once we start to see recovery, will consumer credit return to what it once was? In a recent Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report quarterly webinar, 70% of the respondents in a survey said they believe consumer debt will return to pre-2008 levels. Clearly, many believe that consumer spending and borrowing will return, despite the fact that consumer credit card borrowing recently declined for the 24th straight month*. Assuming that this optimism is valid, what can credit card lenders do to evaluate the risk levels of potential customers as they attempt to grow their portfolios? For lenders, determining who needs credit, as well as whom to lend to in this economic environment, can be quite challenging. However, there are many tools available to assist lenders in assessing credit risk and growing their portfolio. Many lenders look at a consumer’s credit score, such as the tri-bureau VantageScore, to evaluate their credit worthiness. By utilizing an individual’s VantageScore, a lender is able to determine potential customer risk levels. Another way to evaluate a consumer’s credit worthiness is to evaluate a population using credit attributes. Based on the attributes a lender is looking for in their portfolio, they can see improvement in evaluating risk prediction in their portfolio using pre-determined attributes, especially those specifically designed for the credit card industry. There are also models that can help lenders predict when a consumer is likely to be in the market for a new loan or account. Experian’s In the Market Models provide lenders with product-specific segmentation tools that can be combined with risk scores to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of their offers. To identify the optimal cross-sell and line management decisions based on an individual customer’s risk score and potential value, a lender can also utilize optimization tools. Optimization, combined with a viable risk management strategy, can assist a lender to achieve a healthy portfolio growth in a highly constrained environment. Although lenders will need to determine the best method to meet their objectives, these are just a few of the many tools available that will assist them in correctly growing their lending portfolios. ____________________ * http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2010-10-07-consumer-credit_N.htm
US interest rates are at historically low levels, and while many Americans are taking advantage of the low interest rates and refinancing their mortgages, a great deal more are struggling to find jobs, and unable to take advantage of the rate- friendly lending environment. This market however, continues to be complex as lenders try to competitively price products while balancing dynamic consumer risk levels, multiple product options and minimize the cost of acquisition. Due to this, lenders need to implement advanced risk-based pricing strategies that will balance the uncertain risk profiles of consumers while closely monitoring long-term profitability as re-pricing may not be an option given recent regulatory guidelines. Risk-based pricing has been a hot topic recently with the Credit Card Act and Risk-Based Pricing Rule regulation and pending deadline. For lenders who have not performed a new applicant scorecard validation or detailed portfolio analysis in the last few years now is the time to review pricing strategies and portfolio mix. This analysis will aid in maintaining an acceptable risk level as the portfolio evolves with new consumers and risk tiers while ensuring short and long-term profitability and on-going regulatory compliance. At its core, risk-based pricing is a methodology that is used to determine the what interest rate should be charged to a consumer based on the inherent risk and profitability present within a defined pricing tier. By utilizing risk-based pricing, organizations can ensure the overall portfolio is profitable while providing competitive rates to each unique portfolio segment. Consistent review and strategy modification is crucial to success in today’s lending environment. Competition for the lowest risk consumers will continue to increase as qualified candidate pools shrink given the slow economic recovery. By reviewing your portfolio on a regular basis and monitoring portfolio pricing strategies closely an organization can achieve portfolio growth and revenue objectives while monitoring population stability, portfolio performance and future losses.
Recently, the Commerce Department reported that consumer spending levels continued to rise in February, increasing for the fifth straight month *, while flat income levels drove savings levels lower. At the same time, media outlets such as Fox Businesses, reported that the consumer “shopping cart” ** showed price increases for the fourth straight month. Somewhat in opposition to this market trend, the Q4 2009 Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports reveal that the average level of credit card debt per consumer decreased overall, but showed increases in only one score band. In the Q4 reports, the score band that demonstrated balance increases was VantageScore A – the super prime consumer - whose average balance went up $30 to $1,739. In this time of economic challenge and pressure on household incomes, it’s interesting to see that the lower credit scoring consumers display the characteristics of improved credit management and deleveraging; while at the same time, consumers with credit scores in the low-risk tiers may be showing signs of increased expenses and deteriorated savings. Recent delinquency trends support that low-risk consumers are deteriorating in performance for some product vintages. Even more interestingly, Chris Low, Chief Economist at FTN Financial in New York was quoted as saying \"I guess the big takeaway is that consumers are comfortably consuming again. We have positive numbers five months in a row since October, which I guess is a good sign,\". I suggest that there needs to be more analysis applied within the details of these figures to determine whether consumers really are ‘comfortable’ with their spending, or whether this is just a broad assumption that is masking the uncomfortable realities that lie within.
For the past couple years, the deterioration of the real estate market and the economy as a whole has been widely reported as a national and international crisis. There are several significant events that have contributed to this situation, such as, 401k plans have fallen, homeowners have simply abandoned their now under-valued properties, and the federal government has raced to save the banking and automotive sectors. While the perspective of most is that this is a national decline, this is clearly a situation where the real story is in the details. A closer look reveals that while there are places that have experienced serious real estate and employment issues (California, Florida, Michigan, etc.), there are also areas (Texas) that did not experience the same deterioration in the same manner. Flash forward to November, 2009 – with signs of recovery seemingly beginning to appear on the horizon – there appears to be a great deal of variability between areas that seem poised for recovery and those that are continuing down the slope of decline. Interestingly though, this time the list of usual suspects is changing. In a recent article posted to CNN.com, Julianne Pepitone observes that many cities that were tops in foreclosure a year ago have since shown stabilization, while at the same time, other cities have regressed. A related article outlines a growing list of cities that, not long ago, considered themselves immune from the problems being experienced in other parts of the country. Previous economic success stories are now being identified as economic laggards and experiencing the same pains, but only a year or two later. So – is there a lesson to be taken from this? From a business intelligence perspective, the lesson is generalized reporting information and forecasting capabilities are not going to be successful in managing risk. Risk management and forecasting techniques will need to be developed around specific macro- and micro-economic changes. They will also need to incorporate a number of economic scenarios to properly reflect the range of possible future outcomes about risk management and risk management solutions. Moving forward, it will be vital to understand the differences in unemployment between Dallas and Houston and between regions that rely on automotive manufacturing and those with hi-tech jobs. These differences will directly impact the performance of lenders’ specific footprints, as this year’s “Best Place to Live” according to Money.CNN.com can quickly become next year’s foreclosure capital. ihttp://money.cnn.com/2009/10/28/real_estate/foreclosures_worst_cities/index.htm?postversion=2009102811 iihttp://money.cnn.com/galleries/2009/real_estate/0910/gallery.foreclosures_worst_cities/2.html
Vintage analysis 101 The title of this edition, ‘The risk within the risk’ is a testament to the amount of information that can be gleaned from an assessment of the performances of vintage analysis pools. Vintage analysis pools offer numerous perspectives of risk. They allow for a deep appreciation of the effects of loan maturation, and can also point toward the impact of external factors, such as changes in real estate prices, origination standards, and other macroeconomic factors, by highlighting measurable differences in vintage to vintage performance. What is a vintage pool? By the Experian definition, vintage pools are created by taking a sample of all consumers who originated loans in a specific period, perhaps a certain quarter, and tracking the performance of the same consumers and loans through the life of each loan. Vintage pools can be analyzed for various characteristics, but three of the most relevant are: * Vintage delinquency, which allows for an understanding of the repayment trends within each pool; * Payoff trends, which reflect the pace at which pools are being repaid; and * Charge-off curves, which provide insights into the charge-off rates of each pool. The credit grade of each borrower within a vintage pool is extremely important in understanding the vintage characteristics over time, and credit scores are based on the status of the borrower just before the new loan was originated. This process ensures that the new loan origination and the performance of the specific loan do not influence the borrower’s credit score. By using this method of pooling and scoring, each vintage segment contains the same group of loans over time – allowing for a valid comparison of vintage pools and the characteristics found within. Once vintage pools have been defined and created, the possibilities for this data are numerous... Read more about our analysis opportunities for vintage analysis and our recent findings on vintage analysis.
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