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Source:  IntelliViewsm powered by Experian Sales of existing homes dropped 50% from the peak in August 2005 to the low point in July 2010.  The spike in home sales in late 2009 and early 2010 was due to the large number of foreclosure sales as well as very low prices.  Since 2010, sales have increased to almost to the level they were in 2000, before the financial crisis. However, the homeownership rate has steadily gone down.  How could sales have picked up while the homeownership rate declined?  Investors have entered the market snapping up single family homes and renting them.  Therefore, the recent good news in the existing home market has been driven by investors, not homeowners.  But as I point out below, this is changing. Looking at the homeownership rate by age, shown in the table below, it is clear that since the crisis the rate has declined most for people under 45.  The potential for marketing is greatest in this cohort as the numbers indicate a likely demand for housing. Homeownership Rate by Age Source:  U.S. Census Bureau and Haver Analytics as reported on the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Fred database The factors that have impeded growth, described above, are beginning to reverse which, along with pent-up demand, will present an opportunity for mortgage originators in 2015. Home prices have risen in 246 of the 277 cities tracked by Clear Capital.With prices going up, investors have begun to back away from the market, resulting in prices increasing at a slower rate in some cities but they are still increasing.Therefore the perception that homeownership is risky will likely change.In fact, in some areas, such as California’s coastal cities, sales are strong and prices are going up rapidly. Lenders and regulators are recognizing that the stringent guidelines put in place in reaction to the crisis have overly constrained the market.Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are reducing down payment requirements to as low as 3%.FHA is lowering their guarantee fee, reducing the amount of cash buyers need to close transactions.Private securitizations, which dried up completely, are beginning to reappear, especially in the jumbo market. As unemployment continues to go down, consumer confidence will rise and household formation will return to more normal levels which result in more sales to first time homebuyers, who drive the market.According to Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, “…it’s all about consistent job growth for a prolonged period, and we’re entering that stage.” The number of houses in foreclosure, according to RealtyTrac, has fallen to pre-crisis levels.This drag on the market has, for the most part, cleared and as prices continue to inflate, potential buyers will be motivated to buy before homes become unaffordable.Despite the recent increases, home prices are still, on average, 23% lower than they were at the peak. Focusing marketing dollars on those people with the highest propensity to buy has always been a challenge but in this market there are identifiable targets. “Boomerangs” are people who owned real estate in the past but are currently renting and likely to come back into the market.Marketing to qualified former homeowners would provide a solid return on investment. People renting single family houses are indicating a lifestyle preference that can be marketed to. Newly-formed households are also profitable targets. The housing market, at long last, appears to be finally turning the corner and normalizing.  Experian’s expertise in identifying the right consumers can help lenders to pinpoint the right people on whom marketing dollars should be invested to realize the highest level of return. Click here to learn more.

Cont. Understanding Gift Card Fraud By: Angie Montoya In part one, we spoke about what an amazing deal gift cards (GCs) are, and why they are incredibly popular among consumers. Today we are going to dive deeper and see why fraudsters love gift cards and how they are taking advantage of them. We previously mentioned that it’s unlikely a fraudster is the actual person that redeems a gift card for merchandise. Although it is true that some fraudsters may occasionally enjoy a latte or new pair of shoes on us, it is much more lucrative for them to turn these forms of currency into cold hard cash. Doing this also shifts the risk onto an unsuspecting victim and off of the fraudster. For the record, it’s also incredibly easy to do. All of the innovation that was used to help streamline the customer experience has also helped to streamline the fraudster experience. The websites that are used to trade unredeemed cards for other cards or cash are the same websites used by fraudsters. Although there are some protections for the customer on the trading sites, the website host is usually left holding the bag when they have paid out for a GC that has been revoked because it was purchased with stolen credit card information. Others sites, like Craigslist and social media yard sale groups, do not offer any sort of consumer protection, so there is no recourse for the purchaser. What seems like a great deal— buying a GC at a discounted rate— could turn out to be a devalued Gift card with no balance, because the merchant caught on to the original scheme. There are ten states in the US that have passed laws surrounding the cashing out of gift cards. * These laws enable consumers to go to a physical store location and receive, in cash, the remaining balance of a gift card. Most states impose a limit of $5, but California has decided to be a little more generous and extend that limit to $10. As a consumer, it’s a great benefit to be able to receive the small remaining balance in cash, a balance that you will likely forget about and might never use, and the laws were passed with this in mind. Unfortunately, fraudsters have zeroed in on this benefit and are fully taking advantage of it. We have seen a host of merchants experiencing a problem with fraudulently obtained GCs being cashed out in California locations, specifically because they have a higher threshold. While five dollars here and ten dollars there does not seem like it is very much, it adds up when you realize that this could be someone’s full time job. Cashing out three ten dollar cards would take on average 15 minutes. Over the course of a 40-hour workweek it can turn into a six-figure salary. At this point, you might be asking yourself how fraudsters obtain these GCs in the first place. That part is also fairly easy. User credentials and account information is widely available for purchase in underground forums, due in part to the recent increase in large-scale data breaches. Once these credentials have been obtained, they can do one of several things: Put card data onto a dummy card and use it in a physical store Use credit card data to purchase on any website Use existing credentials to log in to a site and purchase with stored payment information Use existing credentials to log in to an app and trigger auto-reloading of accounts, then transfer to a GC   With all of these daunting threats, what can a merchant do to protect their business? First, you want to make sure your online business is screening for both the purchase and redemption of gift cards, both electronic and physical. When you screen for the purchase of GCs, you want to look for things like the quantity of cards purchased, the velocity of orders going to a specific shipping address or email, and velocity of devices being used to place multiple orders. You also want to monitor the redemption of loyalty rewards, and any traffic that goes into these accounts. Loyalty fraud is a newer type of fraud that has exploded because these channels are not normally monitored for fraud— there is no actual financial loss, so priority has been placed elsewhere in the business. However, loyalty points can be redeemed for gift cards, or sold on the black market, and the downstream affect is that it can inconvenience your customer and harm your brand’s image. Additionally, if you offer physical GCs, you want to have a scratch off PIN on the back of the card. If a GC is offered with no PIN, fraudsters can walk into a store, take a picture of the different card numbers, and then redeem online once the cards have been activated. Fraudsters will also tumble card numbers once they have figured out the numerical sequence of the cards. Using a PIN prevents both of these problems. The use of GCs is going to continue to increase in the coming years— this is no surprise. Mobile will continue to be incorporated with these offerings, and answering security challenges will be paramount to their success. Although we are in the age of the data breach, there is no reason that the experience of purchasing or redeeming a gift card should be hampered by overly cautious fraud checks. It’s possible to strike the right balance— grow your business securely by implementing a fraud solution that is fraud minded AND customer centric. *The use of GC/eGC is used interchangeably

End-of-Draw approaching for many HELOCs Home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) originated during the U.S. housing boom period of 2006 – 2008 will soon approach their scheduled maturity or repayment phases, also known as “end-of-draw”.  These 10 year interest only loans will convert to an amortization schedule to cover both principle and interest.  The substantial increase in monthly payment amount will potentially shock many borrowers causing them to face liquidity issues.  Many lenders are aware that the HELOC end-of-draw issue is drawing near and have been trying to get ahead of and restructure this debt. RealtyTrac, the leading provider of comprehensive housing data and analytics for the real estate and financial services industries, foresees this reset risk issue becoming a much bigger crisis than what lenders are expecting.  There are a large percentage of outstanding HELOCs where the properties are still underwater.  That number was at 40% in 2014 and is expected to peak at 62% in 2016, corresponding to the 10 year period after the peak of the U.S. housing bubble.  RealtyTrac executives are concerned that the number of properties with a 125% plus loan-to-value ratio has become higher than predicted. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and the National Credit Union Administration (collectively, the agencies), in collaboration with the Conference of State Bank Supervisors, have jointly issued regulatory guidance on risk management practices for HELOCs nearing end-of-draw. The agencies expect lenders to manage risks in a disciplined manner, recognizing risk and working with those distressed borrowers to avoid unnecessary defaults. A comprehensive strategic plan is vital in order to proactively manage the outstanding HELOCs on their portfolio nearing end-of-draw.  Lenders who do not get ahead of the end-of-draw issue now may have negative impact to their bottom line, brand perception in the market, and realize an increase in regulatory scrutiny.  It is important for lenders to highlight an awareness of each consumer’s needs and tailor an appropriate and unique solution. Below is Experian’s recommended best practice for restructuring HELOCs nearing end-of-draw: Qualify Qualify consumers who have a HELOC that was opened between 2006 and 2008 Assess Viability Assess which HELOCs are idea candidates for restructuring based on a consumer’s Overall debt-to-income ratio Combined loan-to-value ratio Refine Offer Refine the offer to tailor towards each consumer’s needs Monthly payment they can afford Opportunity to restructure the debt into a first mortgage Target Target those consumers most likely to accept the offer Consumers with recent mortgage inquiries Consumers who are in the market for a HELOC loan Lenders should consider partnering with companies who possess the right toolkit in order to give them the greatest decisioning power when restructuring HELOC end-of-draw debt.  It is essential that lenders restructure this debt in the most effective and efficient way in order to provide the best overall solution for each individual consumer.   Revamp your mortgage and home equity acquisitions strategies with advanced analytics   End-of-draw articles