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–by Jeff Bernstein In the current economic environment, many lenders and issuers across the globe are struggling to manage the volume of caseloads coming into collections. The challenge is that as these new collection cases come into collections in early phases of delinquency, the borrower is already in distress, and the opportunity to have a good outcome is diminished. One of the real “hot” items on the list of emerging best practices and innovating changes in collections is the concept of early lifecycle treatment strategy. Essentially, what we are referring to is the treatment of current and non-delinquent borrowers who are exhibiting higher risk characteristics. There are also those who are at-risk of future default at higher levels than average. The challenge is how to identify these customers for early intervention and triage in the collections strategy process. One often-overlooked tool is the use of maturation curves to identify vintages within a portfolio that is performing worse than average. A maturation curve identifies how long from origination until a vintage or segment of the portfolio reaches a normalized rate of delinquency. Let’s assume that you are launching a new credit product into the marketplace. You begin to book new loans under the program in the current month. Beyond that month, you monitor all new loans that were originated/booked during that initial time frame which we can identify as a “vintage” of the portfolio. Each month’s originations are a separate vintage or vintage analysis, and we can track the performance of each vintage over time. How many months will it take before the “portfolio” of loans booked in that initial month reach a normal level of delinquency based on these criteria: the credit quality of the portfolio and its borrowers, typical collections servicing, delinquency reporting standards, and factor of time? The answer would certainly depend upon the aforementioned factors, and could be graphed as follows: Exhibit 1 In Exhibit 1, we examine different vintages beginning with those loans originated during Q2 2002, and by year Q2 2008. The purpose of the analysis is to identify those vintages that have a steeper slope towards delinquency, which is also known as a delinquency maturation curve. The X-axis represents a timeline in months, from month of origination. Furthermore,, the Y-axis represents the 90+ delinquency rate expressed as a percentage of balances in the portfolio. Those vintages that have a steeper slope have reached a normalized level of delinquency sooner, and could in fact, have a trend line suggesting that they overshoot the expected delinquency rate for the portfolio based upon credit quality standards. So how do we use the maturation curve as a tool? In my next blog, I will discuss how to use maturation curves to identify trends across various portfolios. I will also examine differentiate collections issues from originations or lifecycle risk management opportunities.
In my last post I discussed the problem with confusing what I would call “real” Knowledge Based Authentication (KBA) with secret questions. However, I don’t think that’s where the market focus should be. Instead of looking at Knowledge Based Authentication (KBA) today, we should be looking toward the future, and the future starts with risk-based authentication. If you’re like most people, right about now you are wondering exactly what I mean by risk-based authentication. How does it differ from Knowledge Based Authentication, and how we got from point A to point B? It is actually pretty simple. Knowledge Based Authentication is one factor of a risk-based authentication fraud prevention strategy. A risk- based authentication approach doesn’t rely on question/answers alone, but instead utilizes fraud models that include Knowledge Based Authentication performance as part of the fraud analytics to improve fraud detection performance. With a risk-based authentication approach, decisioning strategies are more robust and should include many factors, including the results from scoring models. That isn’t to say that Knowledge Based Authentication isn’t an important part of a risk-based approach. It is. Knowledge Based Authentication is a necessity because it has gained consumer acceptance. Without some form of Knowledge Based Authentication, consumers question an organization’s commitment to security and data protection. Most importantly, consumers now view Knowledge Based Authentication as a tool for their protection; it has become a bellwether to consumers. As the bellwether, Knowledge Based Authentication has been the perfect vehicle to introduce new and more complex authentication methods to consumers, without them even knowing it. KBA has allowed us to familiarize consumers with out-of-band authentication and IVR, and I have little doubt that it will be one of the tools to play a part in the introduction of voice biometrics to help prevent consumer fraud. Is it always appropriate to present questions to every consumer? No, but that’s where a true risk-based approach comes into play. Is Knowledge Based Authentication always a valuable component of a risk based authentication tool to minimize fraud losses as part of an overall approach to fraud best practices? Absolutely; always. DING!
–by Andrew Gulledge Definition and examples Knowledge Based Authentication (KBA) is when you ask a consumer questions to which only they should know the answer. It is designed to prevent identity theft and other kinds of third-party fraud. Examples of Knowledge Based Authentication (also known as out-of-wallet) questions include “What is your monthly car payment?:” or “What are the last four digits of your cell number?” KBA — and associated fraud analytics — are an important part of your fraud best practices strategies. What makes a good KBA question? High percentage correct A good Knowledge Based Authentication question will be easy to answer for the real consumer. Thus we tend to shy away from questions for which a high percentage of consumers give the wrong answer. Using too many of these questions will contribute to false positives in your authentication process (i.e., failing a good consumer). False positives can be costly to a business, either by losing a good customer outright or by overloading your manual review queue (putting pressure on call centers, mailers, etc.). High fraud separation It is appropriate to make an exception, however, if a question with a low percentage correct tends to show good fraud detection. (After all, most people use a handful of KBA questions during an authentication session, so you can leave a little room for error.) Look at the fraudsters who successfully get through your authentication process and see which questions they got right and which they got wrong. The Knowledge Based Authentication questions that are your best fraud detectors will have a lower percentage correct in your fraud population, compared to the overall population. This difference is called fraud separation, and is a measure of the question’s capacity to catch the bad guys. High question generability A good Knowledge Based Authentication question will also be generable for a high percentage of consumers. It’s admirable to beat your chest and say your KBA tool offers 150 different questions. But it’s a much better idea to generate a full (and diverse) question set for over 99 percent of your consumers. Some KBA vendors tout a high number of questions, but some of these can only be generated for one or two percent of the population (if that). And, while it’s nice to be able to ask for a consumer’s SCUBA certification number, this kind of question is not likely to have much effect on your overall production.