Market Trends

Technology sharing can unlock a more effective strategy in fighting fraud. Experian’s multi-layered and risk-based approach to fraud management is discussed

Which part of the country has bragging rights when it comes to sporting the best consumer credit scores? Drum roll please … Honors go to the Midwest. In fact, eight of the 10 cities with the highest consumer credit scores heralded from Minnesota and Wisconsin. Mankato, Minn., earned the highest ranking with an average credit score of 708 and Greenwood, Miss., placed last with an average credit score of 622. Even better news is that the nation’s average credit score is up four points; 669 to 673 from last year and is only six points away from the 2007 average of 679, which is a promising sign as the economy continues to rebound. Experian’s annual study ranks American cities by credit score and reveals which cities are the best and worst at managing their credit, along with a glimpse at how the nation and each generation is faring. “All credit indicators suggest consumers are not as ‘credit stressed’ — credit card balances and average debt are up while utilization rates remained consistent at 30 percent,” said Michele Raneri, vice president of analytics and new business development at Experian. As for the generational victors, the Silents have an average 730, Boomers come in with 700, Gen X with 655 and Gen Y with 634. We’re also starting to see Gen Z emerge for the first time in the credit ranks with an average score of 631. Couple this news with other favorable economic indicators and it appears the country is humming along in a positive direction. The stock market reached record highs post-election. Bankcard originations and balances continue to grow, dominated by the prime borrower. And the housing market is healthy with boomerang borrowers re-emerging. An estimated 2.5 million Americans will see a foreclosure fall of their credit report between June 2016 and June 2017, creating a new pool of potential buyers with improved credit profiles. More than 12 percent who foreclosed back in the Great Recession have already boomeranged to become homeowners again, while 29 percent who experienced a short sale during that same time have also recently taken on a mortgage. “We are seeing the positive effects of economic recovery with the rise in income and low unemployment reflected in how Americans are managing their credit,” said Raneri. Which means all is good in the world of credit. Of course there is always room for improvement, but this year’s 7th annual state of credit reveals there is much to be thankful for in 2016.

Experian Data Breach Resolution releases its fourth annual Data Breach Industry Forecast report with five key predictions on the 2017 data breach landscape

personalized subject lines have a 27% higher unique click rate, an 11% higher CTO and more than double the transaction of other promotional mailings

Panel discussion on Reinventing Identity for the Digital Age at Electronic Signature & Records Association (ESRA) conference

$1.3 trillion. 41.1 million Americans. $31,590. These are the growing numbers associated with student loan debt in the United States: $1.3 trillion in outstanding student loans, spread across 41.1 million people, who are leaving college with an average balance of $31,590. The numbers are staggering, and for the first time student loan debt is playing a prominent role in a presidential election. For all of their differences, presidential nominees Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump seem to agree on one thing: student loan debt is a crushing burden. Both candidates have proposed solutions for student lending. Clinton’s “New College Compact” would allow borrowers to refinance their student loans at current rates available to students taking out new loans. She also wants to reduce interest rates on new student loans, and make it easier for borrowers to enroll in income-driven repayment programs that would cap monthly payments at 10 percent of discretionary income. Trump proposes giving more oversight to colleges to decide whether to grant loans to students based on their prospective major. The plan would also give private banks oversight over government-backed student loans—reversing a 2010 decision under President Obama to make the federal government the lender. Neither candidate, however, has outlined a solution for taming growing tuition costs. Tuition expenses are up 1,225 percent over the past 36 years, outpacing medical costs (634 percent rise) and the consumer price index (279 percent) over the same period, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. So it’s not surprising an Experian study shows the student loan rate has grown five percent in the past three years. What is surprising is the number of people and the average age of those people holding student loans. Experian found: 20 percent of people with a credit file hold a student loan that is being repaid or deferred. The average age of a consumer with a student loan is 37, with an average income of $47,200 compared to 53.8 and an average income is $44,500 for consumers without a student loan. The average age of a consumer with at least one deferred student loan is 32.7 with an average income of $32,900 compared to 38.7 and an average income of $53,200 for consumers with at least one non-deferred student loan. Candidate proposals aside, one thing is certain: student loan debt has a very real impact on the daily lives of people, many of whom have delayed buying homes, starting families, and saving for retirement. Until policymakers find a way to address bloated tuitions and student debt, it will take many longer to realize their dreams.

Will they still aspire to achieve the “American Dream” of education, homeownership and raising a family? Are Millennials ready for a mortgage?

Consumer card balance transfer activity is estimated to be $35B to $40B a year. Identify these consumers before they make transfers by using trended data.

Bank executives don’t realize is they’re facing fraud because they’re literally inviting the fraudsters in bank branches.

Time heals countless things, including credit scores. Many of the seven million people who saw their VantageScore® credit scores drop to sub-prime levels after suffering a foreclosure or short sale during the Great Recession have recovered and are back in the housing market. These Boomerang Buyers — people who foreclosed or short sold between 2007 and 2014 and have opened a new mortgage — will be an important segment of the real estate market in the coming years. According to Experian data, through June 2016 roughly 800,000 people had boomeranged, with Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Sacramento housing the most buyers. Some analysts believe more than three million Americans will become eligible for a home over the next three years. Are potential Boomerang Buyers a great opportunity to boost market share or a high risk for a portfolio? Early trends are positive. The majority of Boomerang Buyers who opened mortgages between 2011 and June 2016 are current on their debts. An Experian study revealed more than 29 percent of those who short sold have boomeranged, and just 1.5 percent are delinquent on their mortgage —falling below the national average of 2.8 percent. This group is also ahead of or even with the national average for delinquency on auto loans (1.2 percent vs. the national average of 2.2 percent), bankcards (3 percent vs. 4.3 percent) and retail (even at 2.7 percent). For those Boomerang Buyers who had foreclosed, the numbers are also strong. More than 12 percent have boomeranged, with just 3 percent delinquent on their mortgage. They also match or are below national average delinquency rates on auto loans (1.9 percent) and bankcards (4.1 percent), and have a slightly higher delinquency rate for retail (3.5 percent). Due to their positive credit behaviors, Boomerang Buyers also have higher VantageScore® credit scores than before. On average, the overall non-boomerang group’s credit score sunk during a foreclosure but went up 10 percent higher than before the foreclosure, and Boomerang Buyers rose by nearly 14 percent. For people who previously had a prime credit score, their number dropped by nearly 5 percent, while those who boomeranged returned to the score they had prior to the foreclosure. By comparison, the overall non-boomerang and boomerang group saw their credit score drop during a short sale and increase more than 11 percent from before the short sale. For people who previously had prime credit, they dropped 2 percent while those who boomeranged were almost flat to where they were before the short sale. Another part of the equation is the stabilized housing market and relatively low loan-to-value (LTV) limits that lenders have maintained. In the past, borrowers most often strategically defaulted on their mortgages when their LTV ratios were well over 100 percent. So as long as lenders maintain relatively low LTV limits and the housing market remains strong, strategic default is unlikely to re-emerge as a risk.

We are excited to announce that Experian Fraud and Identity Solutions will be presenting at Finovate Fall 2016!

First annual global fraud report covering the convergence of growth strategies and fraud threats and prevention. 

Financial health open doors for people, creating opportunities for credit, cars, homes and stability. So how can you get "healthy?"

In an attempt to stay ahead of the speed of fraud, systems have become more complex, more expensive and even more difficult to manage.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) proposed payday lending rule that will apply to virtually all lenders.