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It’s hard to believe, but it’s almost time again for marketers to begin their holiday campaign preparations. Leading up to these preparations, it’s important to reflect on consumer trends from Black Friday 2023 and derive insights for the coming year to shape successful marketing strategies.
Spending trends we saw in 2023
In 2023, consumer holiday spending was forecasted to rise at the slowest pace in five years due to inflation and cost of living concerns. Forrester reported that consumers weren’t spending less, but they were spending slower and paying less for what they bought to stretch their dollar further.
Despite slower spending, data showed a 7.5% increase in e-commerce sales from 2022 to 2023, with a record $9.8 billion spent online and the most substantial growth of in-store traffic in recent years, up 4.6% from the previous year. Shopify even reported record 2023 Black Friday sales numbers offline and offline, reaching $4.1 billion, with significant spending across personal care, clothing, jewelry, shoes, and decor. Around 75% of these sales occurred on mobile and 25% on desktop.
When people shopped in 2023
We also saw notable shifts in how, when, and where people shopped on Black Friday. One significant trend noted in our 2023 Holiday spending report was the increasing preference for early holiday shopping, particularly online. Consumers quickly responded to early discounts and promotions, which caused a surge in spending during October. Cyber Week, encompassing Black Friday through Cyber Monday, also played a significant role, accounting for 8% of total consumer holiday spending.
2023 trends we expect to see in 2024
As you gear up for the holiday season, understanding Black Friday trends from 2023 will be vital, as Black Friday 2024 is expected to see a continuation of several key trends alongside emerging ones:
- Mobile shopping will continue its growth trajectory.
- Consumers will keep seeking early deals.
- Marketers will prepare promotions sooner than ever.
- Flexible payment arrangements like “buy now/pay later” (BNPL) will drive conversions amid continued inflation.
- Channel switching will become more common.
- Paid search will drive the most sales.
Let’s talk about what past trends and future predictions mean for your marketing strategy and how you can use them to inform your 2024 holiday campaigns.
Emerging consumer behaviors
Consumer behaviors and preferences have been changing and reshaping the Black Friday shopping landscape over the last few years. Looking ahead to Black Friday 2024, several trends from last year are likely to continue shaping the shopping experience.
Early shopping
The early holiday shopping trend will continue to become more pronounced. Many consumers now begin their end-of-year shopping well before Halloween, seeking to take advantage of early deals and discounts, enjoy more time to compare prices and products, avoid crowds, secure popular items early, and spread out their budget. In 2023, Gallup found that one in four holiday shoppers even starts as early as September. This means your business must begin planning sales and promotions earlier in the season and roll them out sooner.
The value of experiences
We’re seeing an interesting shift toward gifting experiences over physical items among consumers with more disposable income. In a 2023 survey, one in five respondents said they’d prefer to get an experience as a gift over an item. Those in higher income brackets are allocating more of their holiday budgets to experiences that create lasting memories, such as theme park passes, art classes, concert tickets, and so forth. This trend will require retailers to get creative, potentially:
- Hosting giftable in-store events
- Enhancing the in-store experience
- Using experiential marketing to make deeper consumer connections
- Partnering with other companies to provide bundled gift/experience packages
Preference for digital channels
Media consumption habits and preferred engagement channels are also undergoing significant changes. Consumers increasingly turn to digital channels like streaming TV and connected TV (CTV) for entertainment and information. CTV ad spending, in particular, is expected to grow by 20% in 2024 and by low double digits into 2027. This shift will influence how retailers reach and engage with consumers, and it underscores the importance of digital marketing strategies and personalized online experiences.
Mobile vs. desktop online spending
The preference for mobile over desktop for online transactions is growing; in 2023, mobile devices comprised 54% of online sales, with online purchases up 10.4% from 2022 on Black Friday. More and more, consumers are using mobile devices to research, browse, and buy online. Marketers need to optimize their mobile and website experience to make the shopping experience seamless across all devices.
Key products and categories
Research has shown that the most popular in-store purchases of Black Friday weekend in 2023 included clothing/accessories and electronics.
- 82% of shoppers bought clothing in-store to inspect colors, material, and fit
- 73% said they would buy electronics in store to compare quality
These categories were followed by:
- Health and beauty (49%)
- Household appliances (44%)
- Sports/leisure (32%)
Interestingly, the same categories were also the top sellers online during Cyber Week 2023, with 79% of buyers seeking clothing/accessories and 66% intending to purchase electronics. Amazon was one of the most popular shopping destinations for Cyber Week 2023, with over a billion items sold. Some of the top-selling items included the Amazon Fire TV Stick and Ring Video Doorbell. This indicates a consistent consumer preference across different shopping channels and suggests shoppers are comfortable buying a wide range of products online, even during traditional in-store shopping events.
Looking ahead, retailers can reasonably anticipate continued demand for clothing/accessories and electronics, both in-store and online.
Marketing strategies that worked
Last year was a year of growth, albeit slow growth, despite economic uncertainty. Here are some of the marketing strategies deployed that contributed to this growth.
Influencer collaborations
Data from a 2023 Black Friday report showed that seven of every 10 shoppers acknowledged an influencer’s role in their purchase decision. Partnering with influencers to promote Black Friday deals and hosting live streaming sessions with influencers showcasing products helped reach new audiences and build credibility. Influencers’ recommendations resonated strongly with their followers, which drove traffic and increased sales.
Cross-channel marketing campaigns
Black Friday gives marketers a unique opportunity to engage audiences across touchpoints. Using a mix of channels, such as social media, email, websites, SMS, in-store promotions, and print media, tends to create more impactful campaigns.
Last year proved to be diverse in terms of marketing channel mix. Marketers embraced a cross-channel approach to connect with their users during holiday sales, which was evident in the increased usage of channels like email, SMS/MMS, web push notifications, and emerging channels like Roku messages. Using multiple channels to promote Black Friday deals increased visibility and reached a wider audience. This comprehensive approach ensured marketing messages reached customers wherever they were.
To maximize sales during the Cyber Five holiday season, activate Experian audiences as part of your omnichannel campaign. Our offerings include meticulously curated behavioral segments based on discount indicators such as Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and Coupons/Sales. These segments help you target shoppers who are ready to take advantage of your promotions and are primed for early conversion. Our marketing data was ranked #1 in accuracy by Truthset, which means you can power smarter marketing initiatives, like insights, targeting, and measurement, using the highest-rated data.
App-only deals
In 2023, mobile app sales increased by 2% from 2022, generating a 12% increase in app purchases and $2 billion more in revenue than the year before. Businesses offering exclusive deals through their mobile apps incentivized customers to download and use the app for their purchases, which helped boost sales through a dedicated channel.
Limited-time offers
Time-limited offers are the essence of Black Friday and Cyber Week, giving shoppers a timeframe for getting the lowest prices of the year on certain products. Creating urgency is a highly effective way to get people to make a faster purchase decision.
Bath & Body Works is exemplary at using limited-time offers; once a year around Black Friday, they run a “Buy 3, Get 3” sale on the whole store for a single day, which encourages customers to stock up while getting their holiday shopping done.
Flash sales and hourly deals are shorter limited-time promotions that generate excitement, traffic, and sales. By highlighting specific products with steep discounts, retailers encourage customers to make instantaneous purchases. Amazon is known for these, which they refer to as Lightning Deals or product discounts available for only a few hours.
Early-bird discounts and exclusive previews
Retailers wanting to avoid overcrowded stores or website crashes can reward those who shop early with exclusive discounts or sneak peeks into Black Friday deals. This creates a feeling of urgency and privilege that leads to a purchase. Best Buy offers its Best Buy Plus and Best Buy Total members exclusive savings during a sale period just for them. They get early access to discounts toward the end of October, after which they open up their early bird deals to the public.
Predictions for Black Friday 2024
Based on what we’ve seen in 2023, we expect the following trends to shape consumer behavior on Black Friday and beyond in 2024.
Consumers will use their phones to shop more often than they already do
Mobile shopping is easy and discreet, allowing customers to shop from anywhere while staying on top of sales. Black Friday mobile orders increased from 2022 to 2023, with over 50% of all Black Friday sales occurring on smartphones. This indicates a growing trust in smartphone transactions among shoppers, which is why 2024 will likely reflect this trend.
As a marketer, this means you should ensure your website is optimized for smartphones and tablets. Ensure load speed is quick, navigation is simple, designs are intuitive, and mobile payment options are available. You also have an opportunity to invite your customers to sign up for SMS or push notifications so they can shop deals immediately after they’re rolled out.
While mobile should be a priority, we still recommend investing in multiple channels to capture online shoppers everywhere they’re buying. Our Graph can help you unify data, capture user activity, and view your target audience holistically to optimize ad spend, allocate resources effectively, and improve ROI.
Marketers will start preparing their Black Friday campaigns earlier than ever
With increasing market competition and pressure to accommodate early bird deal seekers, marketers will likely start preparing their discounts, inventories, and promotional materials earlier in the summer.
Data enrichment can help you prepare early Black Friday promos by providing deeper insights into your customers and what they want. Enriching your existing data with behavioral, financial, and demographic information can help you create precise audience segments and personalized content, anticipate customer preferences, optimize channel placement, and tailor your promotions effectively. On average, Experian has 250 behavioral and demographic marketing attributes per individual, which means we can decorate households and people with marketing data to get a full customer profile and fill in any gaps you have on your audience. You can also consider implementing sell-side targeting to help your promotions reach the right people.
If you plan to run early promotions, try not to create deal fatigue among your consumers. Focus on building a few high-quality promotions that will attract your target customers.
BNPL arrangements will become more common for conversion
Given lingering inflation in the U.S., consumers will still be looking for ways to stretch their money this year, and many shoppers may seek out BNPL arrangements. According to Deloitte, 37% of shoppers have used these services historically, and these arrangements have proven to increase conversions by up to 30%.
With so many shoppers wanting the financial convenience of making large purchases without the immediate financial burden, marketers can use data enrichment to identify their target segments most likely to use BNPL and create personalized offers and promotions for them. Your strategy should include high-value offers and messaging that appeal to budget-conscious shoppers and a checkout optimized for BNPL options.
Channel switching will surge
Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales are starting to become channel-agnostic, with consumers browsing online, on mobile apps, in physical stores, and on social media. As such, they expect a unified experience wherever they browse. Any inconsistency can disrupt the purchase journey and deter potential buyers.
As the shopping experience becomes more connected, consumers are moving between channels more frequently, which means integrating data from various touchpoints will be crucial to understanding and predicting customer behavior. Marketers must develop cohesive omnichannel strategies with consistent messaging and promotions across channels. Your campaigns should span multiple channels so customers can engage with your brand in various ways.
We work with major platforms, marketers, and agencies, which means we have existing partnerships across the ecosystem for you to connect with and bring your consumer data to life to meet your needs.
Paid search will drive the most sales
Research from Adobe shows paid search as the top sales driver of Cyber Week 2023, comprising nearly 30% of all online sales. Due to the high-intent customers captured by paid search and the surge in shopping on mobile devices, we expect to see paid search drive much of the Black Friday sales in 2024 — especially as advances in data analytics and AI allow marketers to optimize paid search campaigns more effectively. They can analyze vast amounts of data to refine keywords, ad copy, and bidding strategies for higher ROI and better targeting.
In 2024, it’s essential to prioritize paid search strategies and focus on using relevant, high-performing keywords for your campaigns. You can continuously refine your strategies using AI and data analytics to target high-intent customers. Additionally, integrating insights from customer behavior data will help you create more personalized, impactful ad copy and heighten the effectiveness of your paid search efforts.
Experian can help you win Black Friday 2024
Want your marketing campaigns to stand out and reach your audiences on Black Friday this year? Partner with Experian to create data-driven, targeted, impactful 2024 holiday campaigns.
Our data empowers you to gain valuable insights and optimize your holiday marketing strategies. We can connect online and physical transactions to our Experian household ID for a holistic view of customer behavior, connect ad exposure with foot traffic, or employ control group lift analysis to measure campaign effectiveness. By activating our purchase-based holiday audiences, like last-minute and one-stop holiday shoppers, you can reach the segments most likely to spend with you. Integrating with over 150 channels, we’ll help your campaigns reach your audience wherever they are. You can even utilize our connections to various digital platforms and partners to expand your reach.
With Experian’s measurement offerings, you can make data-driven decisions about your activation strategies. Engage the right audiences and drive exceptional results this holiday season with Experian.
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The cookieless future is here, and it's time to start thinking about how you will adapt your strategies to this new reality. In a cookieless world, you will need to find new ways to identify and track users across devices. This will require reliance on first-party data, contextual advertising, and alternative identifiers that respect user privacy. To shed light on this topic, we hosted a panel discussion at Cannes, featuring industry leaders from Cint, Direct Digital Holdings, the IAB, MiQ, Tatari, and Experian. In this blog post, we'll explore the future of identity in cookieless advertising. We'll discuss the challenges and opportunities that this new era presents, and we'll offer our tips for how to stay ahead of the curve. How cookieless advertising is evolving Programmatic advertising is experiencing multiple changes. Let's dive into three key things you should know. Cookie deprecation One significant change is cookie deprecation, which has implications for tracking and targeting. Additionally, understanding the concept of Return on Advertising Spend (ROAS) is becoming increasingly crucial. The demand and supply-side are coming closer together Demand-side platforms (DSPs) and supply-side platforms (SSPs) have traditionally been seen as two separate entities. DSPs are used by advertisers to buy ad space, while SSPs are used by publishers to sell ad space. However, in recent years, there has been a trend toward the two sides coming closer together. This is due to three key factors: The rise of header bidding Header bidding is a process where publishers sell their ad space to multiple buyers in a single auction. This allows publishers to get the best possible price for their ad space, and it also allows advertisers to target their ads more effectively. 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Three challenges Advertisers are captivated by CTV, a media platform that combines the best features of TV and digital advertising. With its unparalleled data and identity capabilities, alongside the immersive TV experience, it has the potential to be a powerful performance channel. However, we still face three challenges as performance dollars take center stage. "CTV is a valuable household device that provides direct audience insights. However, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the household and the individuals in the household, we need different techniques. The implementation of such methodologies from user level profiles to algorithmic inferences are still evolving across different companies." Louqman parampath, vp, product, roku Client education Performance marketers and agencies are still primarily focused on social and search. It's important to reassure them that CTV aligns with their established standards. 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Data interoperability When it comes to buying unified audiences, programmatically is the easiest route. By prioritizing data interoperability, you can ensure a seamless buying experience across all screens. "At Disney, we focus on data interoperability with industry solutions such as The Trade Desk/UID2, Google PAIR, and Experian and the LUID, making it effortless to buy unified audiences programmatically across all screens. With an identity graph as the foundation of our tech stack, we help our clients reach their target audience across linear, digital, and streaming properties."jamie power, SVP, addressable sales, disney Advanced targeting capabilities in linear TV Don't limit your perspective on television consumption to traditional streaming platforms alone. While streaming is popular, it's equally exciting to see advanced targeting capabilities integrated into linear television. Viewer habits are shifting, with appointment TV becoming a thing of the past. Today, viewers have more options to watch a variety of programming, regardless of its age. "Streaming has become another platform for viewers to consume programming, and it's exciting to see digital targeting capabilities being applied to linear TV. Viewer behavior has changed, with more opportunities to consume programs at different times, so it's important to use targeting capabilities like linear addressable to effectively reach the audience across multiple channels."evan adlman, Evp, commercial sales & revenue operations, amc networks While live premieres still attract a substantial audience, utilize linear addressable targeting to reach viewers across channels. By doing so, you can ensure your message reaches the right viewers at the right time. The viewership landscape has diversified – it's time to adjust our strategies. Make TV viewing patterns predictable To bring predictability to the unpredictable and fragmented landscape of TV, advertisers can create products that simplify and unify the viewing experience. This allows users to effortlessly transition between episodes, resulting in a cohesive and engaging viewing journey. Watch our Cannes panel for more on the future of streaming TV advertising We hosted a panel in Cannes that covered the future of streaming TV advertising. Check out the full recording below to hear what leaders from AMC Networks, Disney, OMG, Paramount, Roku, and Experian had to say. Watch now Check out more Cannes content: Our key takeaways from Cannes Lions 2023 Insights from a first-time attendee Four new marketing strategies for 2023 The future of identity in cookieless advertising Maximize ad targeting with supply-side advertising Follow us on LinkedIn or sign up for our email newsletter for more informative content on the latest industry insights and data-driven marketing. 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As a marketer, you know that the digital landscape is always changing. That's why it's important to make sure you're equipped with the right tools every step of the way – no matter how rapidly things change. You want to ensure your strategies and tactics stay ahead of any changes in technology or consumer behavior, so what new marketing strategies should be in your toolbox in 2023? Discover what industry leaders from Experian, Adweek, FreeWheel, Tubi, and Instacart had to say about what should be in every marketer's toolbox in 2023 at Cannes. Keep reading to learn the top four new marketing strategies you need in your marketing toolbox for 2023 and beyond. 1. A plan for signal loss The first item you should have in your marketing toolbox is a plan for signal loss. The phasing out of third-party cookies presents both a challenge and an opportunity. This shift not only poses challenges but also opens up opportunities for alternative strategies. On the one hand, it makes it more difficult to track users across channels and measure the effectiveness of marketing campaigns. On the other hand, it forces marketers to focus on building relationships with their customers and collecting first-party data. Consumer behavior is changing When we consider signal loss in a traditional sense, we think of the implementation of iOS 14, where we couldn't track click-based data from campaigns. It's important to reflect on the fact that the paid media ecosystem needed to adapt to new consumer realities. Younger demographics are less likely to click on ads and instead engage in video environments. They discover brands through platforms like TikTok or Instagram. It's crucial to understand how people behave, where they discover products, and where influence takes place. This understanding becomes even more vital when targeting a young audience demographic. Four things to consider when planning for signal loss There are four things you should consider when building out a plan to address signal loss and fragmentation. Channel diversification You need to reach your customers on the channels where they are already spending time, such as social media, email, and your own website. You should work with platforms that have first-party data to understand how your customers interact with your brand. Data privacy You need to be transparent about how you are collecting and using customer data. You should also anonymize data whenever possible. First-party data First-party data is now more crucial than ever, awakening its importance in shaping our actions. The combination of channel diversification and first-party data will be essential in the years to come. By focusing on these two areas, you can build stronger customer relationships and create more effective marketing campaigns. Contextual targeting Contextual targeting is emerging as a viable method to deliver more relevant content to your intended audience. By embracing signal loss, the alternative new marketing strategies that are emerging as a result, and adopting a privacy-centric mindset, you can navigate cookie deprecation. 2. Collaboration The second item you should have in your marketing toolbox is collaboration within the AdTech ecosystem. To address signal loss and changes in privacy, moving toward a more collaborative, holistic marketing ecosystem is key. Two ways we can achieve better collaboration Here are two ways we can create better collaboration in the AdTech ecosystem. Enable interoperability We should aim to create an ecosystem that fosters collaboration between marketers, publishers, advertisers, ad tech companies, and more. When we enable seamless interoperability, everyone can use the best data available. Use clean rooms We are witnessing a growing trend of collaboration between parties, where buyers and sellers share data in these secure environments. Clean rooms can help us develop data strategies in a controlled manner. 3. Generative artificial intelligence (AI) The third tool you should have in your marketing toolbox is generative AI. Benefits of implementing AI There are three main benefits to implementing AI within your marketing strategy. Enables creativity Although AI and machine learning have long been part of our toolbox, this moment marks an extraordinary acceleration that expands our capabilities. Copywriters can now create visuals, and art directors can write compelling copy. It's an extension of what we're capable of, potentially alleviating the burden of repetitive tasks and enabling more time for collaboration, creativity, and strategic thinking. By embracing generative AI, we can preserve valuable talent, prevent burnout, and invigorate the advertising industry. 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Helps drive impactful results and customer satisfaction The tool is a perfect analogy for improving your job performance and business operations. Having the right data input to feed the machine is crucial, just like using the right ingredients to cook a perfect meal. Keeping the consumer in mind throughout the process is key. You can ensure customer satisfaction by putting the right ingredients in and allowing the machine to work its magic. Scaling up, repeating, and refining the process will drive impactful results. 4. First-party data The fourth item you should have in your marketing toolbox is first-party data. Benefits of implementing a first-party data strategy Moving from a third-party cookie world to a first-party cookie world brings about significant transformation. Here are two benefits of implementing a first-party data strategy. Greater accuracy The shift to first-party cookies ensures greater accuracy, enabling us to establish critical mass through secure partnerships. This empowers us to strengthen and refine our personalization capabilities, much like Amazon's ability to anticipate customer needs before they arise. When you can predict and understand customer behaviors with remarkable precision, you can reach your customers with tailored and creative ads. "Building a robust first-party data strategy should be a central discussion for marketers, involving key stakeholders such as CEOs and CMOs. Quality and precise data are paramount, and while first-party relationships with consumers form the foundation, even established brands benefit from strategic partnerships. Together, we can unlock the potential of accurate and meaningful data-driven marketing."jeremy hlavacek, cco, experian Identify high-growth audiences First-party data can help you identify audiences with the greatest growth potential, ultimately optimizing marketing dollars for greater efficiency. Watch our Cannes panel for more new marketing strategies for 2023 We hosted a panel with Adweek in Cannes that covered what should be in every marketer's toolbox this year. Check out the full recording below to hear from leaders at Tubi, Freewheel, Instacart, Adweek, and Experian. Watch now Check out more Cannes content: Our key takeaways from Cannes Lions 2023 Insights from a first-time attendee Exploring the opportunities in streaming TV advertising The future of identity in cookieless advertising Maximize ad targeting with supply-side advertising Follow us on LinkedIn or sign up for our email newsletter for more informative content on the latest industry insights and data-driven marketing. Latest posts