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It’s hard to believe, but it’s almost time again for marketers to begin their holiday campaign preparations. Leading up to these preparations, it’s important to reflect on consumer trends from Black Friday 2023 and derive insights for the coming year to shape successful marketing strategies.
Spending trends we saw in 2023
In 2023, consumer holiday spending was forecasted to rise at the slowest pace in five years due to inflation and cost of living concerns. Forrester reported that consumers weren’t spending less, but they were spending slower and paying less for what they bought to stretch their dollar further.
Despite slower spending, data showed a 7.5% increase in e-commerce sales from 2022 to 2023, with a record $9.8 billion spent online and the most substantial growth of in-store traffic in recent years, up 4.6% from the previous year. Shopify even reported record 2023 Black Friday sales numbers offline and offline, reaching $4.1 billion, with significant spending across personal care, clothing, jewelry, shoes, and decor. Around 75% of these sales occurred on mobile and 25% on desktop.
When people shopped in 2023
We also saw notable shifts in how, when, and where people shopped on Black Friday. One significant trend noted in our 2023 Holiday spending report was the increasing preference for early holiday shopping, particularly online. Consumers quickly responded to early discounts and promotions, which caused a surge in spending during October. Cyber Week, encompassing Black Friday through Cyber Monday, also played a significant role, accounting for 8% of total consumer holiday spending.
2023 trends we expect to see in 2024
As you gear up for the holiday season, understanding Black Friday trends from 2023 will be vital, as Black Friday 2024 is expected to see a continuation of several key trends alongside emerging ones:
- Mobile shopping will continue its growth trajectory.
- Consumers will keep seeking early deals.
- Marketers will prepare promotions sooner than ever.
- Flexible payment arrangements like “buy now/pay later” (BNPL) will drive conversions amid continued inflation.
- Channel switching will become more common.
- Paid search will drive the most sales.
Let’s talk about what past trends and future predictions mean for your marketing strategy and how you can use them to inform your 2024 holiday campaigns.
Emerging consumer behaviors
Consumer behaviors and preferences have been changing and reshaping the Black Friday shopping landscape over the last few years. Looking ahead to Black Friday 2024, several trends from last year are likely to continue shaping the shopping experience.
Early shopping
The early holiday shopping trend will continue to become more pronounced. Many consumers now begin their end-of-year shopping well before Halloween, seeking to take advantage of early deals and discounts, enjoy more time to compare prices and products, avoid crowds, secure popular items early, and spread out their budget. In 2023, Gallup found that one in four holiday shoppers even starts as early as September. This means your business must begin planning sales and promotions earlier in the season and roll them out sooner.
The value of experiences
We’re seeing an interesting shift toward gifting experiences over physical items among consumers with more disposable income. In a 2023 survey, one in five respondents said they’d prefer to get an experience as a gift over an item. Those in higher income brackets are allocating more of their holiday budgets to experiences that create lasting memories, such as theme park passes, art classes, concert tickets, and so forth. This trend will require retailers to get creative, potentially:
- Hosting giftable in-store events
- Enhancing the in-store experience
- Using experiential marketing to make deeper consumer connections
- Partnering with other companies to provide bundled gift/experience packages
Preference for digital channels
Media consumption habits and preferred engagement channels are also undergoing significant changes. Consumers increasingly turn to digital channels like streaming TV and connected TV (CTV) for entertainment and information. CTV ad spending, in particular, is expected to grow by 20% in 2024 and by low double digits into 2027. This shift will influence how retailers reach and engage with consumers, and it underscores the importance of digital marketing strategies and personalized online experiences.
Mobile vs. desktop online spending
The preference for mobile over desktop for online transactions is growing; in 2023, mobile devices comprised 54% of online sales, with online purchases up 10.4% from 2022 on Black Friday. More and more, consumers are using mobile devices to research, browse, and buy online. Marketers need to optimize their mobile and website experience to make the shopping experience seamless across all devices.
Key products and categories
Research has shown that the most popular in-store purchases of Black Friday weekend in 2023 included clothing/accessories and electronics.
- 82% of shoppers bought clothing in-store to inspect colors, material, and fit
- 73% said they would buy electronics in store to compare quality
These categories were followed by:
- Health and beauty (49%)
- Household appliances (44%)
- Sports/leisure (32%)
Interestingly, the same categories were also the top sellers online during Cyber Week 2023, with 79% of buyers seeking clothing/accessories and 66% intending to purchase electronics. Amazon was one of the most popular shopping destinations for Cyber Week 2023, with over a billion items sold. Some of the top-selling items included the Amazon Fire TV Stick and Ring Video Doorbell. This indicates a consistent consumer preference across different shopping channels and suggests shoppers are comfortable buying a wide range of products online, even during traditional in-store shopping events.
Looking ahead, retailers can reasonably anticipate continued demand for clothing/accessories and electronics, both in-store and online.
Marketing strategies that worked
Last year was a year of growth, albeit slow growth, despite economic uncertainty. Here are some of the marketing strategies deployed that contributed to this growth.
Influencer collaborations
Data from a 2023 Black Friday report showed that seven of every 10 shoppers acknowledged an influencer’s role in their purchase decision. Partnering with influencers to promote Black Friday deals and hosting live streaming sessions with influencers showcasing products helped reach new audiences and build credibility. Influencers’ recommendations resonated strongly with their followers, which drove traffic and increased sales.
Cross-channel marketing campaigns
Black Friday gives marketers a unique opportunity to engage audiences across touchpoints. Using a mix of channels, such as social media, email, websites, SMS, in-store promotions, and print media, tends to create more impactful campaigns.
Last year proved to be diverse in terms of marketing channel mix. Marketers embraced a cross-channel approach to connect with their users during holiday sales, which was evident in the increased usage of channels like email, SMS/MMS, web push notifications, and emerging channels like Roku messages. Using multiple channels to promote Black Friday deals increased visibility and reached a wider audience. This comprehensive approach ensured marketing messages reached customers wherever they were.
To maximize sales during the Cyber Five holiday season, activate Experian audiences as part of your omnichannel campaign. Our offerings include meticulously curated behavioral segments based on discount indicators such as Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and Coupons/Sales. These segments help you target shoppers who are ready to take advantage of your promotions and are primed for early conversion. Our marketing data was ranked #1 in accuracy by Truthset, which means you can power smarter marketing initiatives, like insights, targeting, and measurement, using the highest-rated data.
App-only deals
In 2023, mobile app sales increased by 2% from 2022, generating a 12% increase in app purchases and $2 billion more in revenue than the year before. Businesses offering exclusive deals through their mobile apps incentivized customers to download and use the app for their purchases, which helped boost sales through a dedicated channel.
Limited-time offers
Time-limited offers are the essence of Black Friday and Cyber Week, giving shoppers a timeframe for getting the lowest prices of the year on certain products. Creating urgency is a highly effective way to get people to make a faster purchase decision.
Bath & Body Works is exemplary at using limited-time offers; once a year around Black Friday, they run a “Buy 3, Get 3” sale on the whole store for a single day, which encourages customers to stock up while getting their holiday shopping done.
Flash sales and hourly deals are shorter limited-time promotions that generate excitement, traffic, and sales. By highlighting specific products with steep discounts, retailers encourage customers to make instantaneous purchases. Amazon is known for these, which they refer to as Lightning Deals or product discounts available for only a few hours.
Early-bird discounts and exclusive previews
Retailers wanting to avoid overcrowded stores or website crashes can reward those who shop early with exclusive discounts or sneak peeks into Black Friday deals. This creates a feeling of urgency and privilege that leads to a purchase. Best Buy offers its Best Buy Plus and Best Buy Total members exclusive savings during a sale period just for them. They get early access to discounts toward the end of October, after which they open up their early bird deals to the public.
Predictions for Black Friday 2024
Based on what we’ve seen in 2023, we expect the following trends to shape consumer behavior on Black Friday and beyond in 2024.
Consumers will use their phones to shop more often than they already do
Mobile shopping is easy and discreet, allowing customers to shop from anywhere while staying on top of sales. Black Friday mobile orders increased from 2022 to 2023, with over 50% of all Black Friday sales occurring on smartphones. This indicates a growing trust in smartphone transactions among shoppers, which is why 2024 will likely reflect this trend.
As a marketer, this means you should ensure your website is optimized for smartphones and tablets. Ensure load speed is quick, navigation is simple, designs are intuitive, and mobile payment options are available. You also have an opportunity to invite your customers to sign up for SMS or push notifications so they can shop deals immediately after they’re rolled out.
While mobile should be a priority, we still recommend investing in multiple channels to capture online shoppers everywhere they’re buying. Our Graph can help you unify data, capture user activity, and view your target audience holistically to optimize ad spend, allocate resources effectively, and improve ROI.
Marketers will start preparing their Black Friday campaigns earlier than ever
With increasing market competition and pressure to accommodate early bird deal seekers, marketers will likely start preparing their discounts, inventories, and promotional materials earlier in the summer.
Data enrichment can help you prepare early Black Friday promos by providing deeper insights into your customers and what they want. Enriching your existing data with behavioral, financial, and demographic information can help you create precise audience segments and personalized content, anticipate customer preferences, optimize channel placement, and tailor your promotions effectively. On average, Experian has 250 behavioral and demographic marketing attributes per individual, which means we can decorate households and people with marketing data to get a full customer profile and fill in any gaps you have on your audience. You can also consider implementing sell-side targeting to help your promotions reach the right people.
If you plan to run early promotions, try not to create deal fatigue among your consumers. Focus on building a few high-quality promotions that will attract your target customers.
BNPL arrangements will become more common for conversion
Given lingering inflation in the U.S., consumers will still be looking for ways to stretch their money this year, and many shoppers may seek out BNPL arrangements. According to Deloitte, 37% of shoppers have used these services historically, and these arrangements have proven to increase conversions by up to 30%.
With so many shoppers wanting the financial convenience of making large purchases without the immediate financial burden, marketers can use data enrichment to identify their target segments most likely to use BNPL and create personalized offers and promotions for them. Your strategy should include high-value offers and messaging that appeal to budget-conscious shoppers and a checkout optimized for BNPL options.
Channel switching will surge
Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales are starting to become channel-agnostic, with consumers browsing online, on mobile apps, in physical stores, and on social media. As such, they expect a unified experience wherever they browse. Any inconsistency can disrupt the purchase journey and deter potential buyers.
As the shopping experience becomes more connected, consumers are moving between channels more frequently, which means integrating data from various touchpoints will be crucial to understanding and predicting customer behavior. Marketers must develop cohesive omnichannel strategies with consistent messaging and promotions across channels. Your campaigns should span multiple channels so customers can engage with your brand in various ways.
We work with major platforms, marketers, and agencies, which means we have existing partnerships across the ecosystem for you to connect with and bring your consumer data to life to meet your needs.
Paid search will drive the most sales
Research from Adobe shows paid search as the top sales driver of Cyber Week 2023, comprising nearly 30% of all online sales. Due to the high-intent customers captured by paid search and the surge in shopping on mobile devices, we expect to see paid search drive much of the Black Friday sales in 2024 — especially as advances in data analytics and AI allow marketers to optimize paid search campaigns more effectively. They can analyze vast amounts of data to refine keywords, ad copy, and bidding strategies for higher ROI and better targeting.
In 2024, it’s essential to prioritize paid search strategies and focus on using relevant, high-performing keywords for your campaigns. You can continuously refine your strategies using AI and data analytics to target high-intent customers. Additionally, integrating insights from customer behavior data will help you create more personalized, impactful ad copy and heighten the effectiveness of your paid search efforts.
Experian can help you win Black Friday 2024
Want your marketing campaigns to stand out and reach your audiences on Black Friday this year? Partner with Experian to create data-driven, targeted, impactful 2024 holiday campaigns.
Our data empowers you to gain valuable insights and optimize your holiday marketing strategies. We can connect online and physical transactions to our Experian household ID for a holistic view of customer behavior, connect ad exposure with foot traffic, or employ control group lift analysis to measure campaign effectiveness. By activating our purchase-based holiday audiences, like last-minute and one-stop holiday shoppers, you can reach the segments most likely to spend with you. Integrating with over 150 channels, we’ll help your campaigns reach your audience wherever they are. You can even utilize our connections to various digital platforms and partners to expand your reach.
With Experian’s measurement offerings, you can make data-driven decisions about your activation strategies. Engage the right audiences and drive exceptional results this holiday season with Experian.
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As part of our ongoing series which focuses on consumer and marketing trends around major holidays throughout the year, we’ve just released the Father’s Day Hot Sheet. Father’s Day gift-related searches Now that Mother’s Day has come and gone, consumers will be shifting their focus to dad. According to Experian Marketing Services’ Hitwise® online intelligence tool, searches for “Father’s Day” typically start to pop up on Mother’s Day. And searches for “Father’s Day gifts” tend to focus on affordable gift ideas that are personalized, unique and often handmade. In fact, two of the top variations of Father’s Day gift-related searches from 2014 were for “DIY” and “homemade” gifts. While many shoppers wanted the “best” gift for dad, others simply wanted something “cheap” or “last minute.” Finding a gift that dad will appreciate means looking for something that is personalized to him. As such, searches for Father’s Day gifts often contain additional information about the dad or, in many cases, grandpa. Examples commonly used in 2014 were “Christian dad,” “new dads,” “outdoorsy dads” as well dads who are wine or BBQ lovers. While many gift searches include information about the intended recipient, others mention details about the gift-giver or their relationship to the father. Among last year’s variations that included such details, nearly a third focused on gifts that were intended to be given by a “daughter.” Genderless references, such as “kids” or “children” were almost as common. Interestingly, fewer than ten percent were for gifts to be given by a “son.” About a fifth of searches included details about the age of the gift-giver (e.g.: “baby,” “toddler” or “first grader”), while others specified that the gift was to be given by the dad’s wife or girlfriend. Go, go, gadget dad! Gadgets and gizmos are always popular gifts for the techie dad. In fact, during the week immediately preceding Father’s Day last year, visits to Electronics and Appliance websites were up a relative eight percent from two weeks prior. Visits subsequently tapered off the following week. An analysis of search terms driving traffic to the Hitwise Electronics and Appliance industry the week ending June 14 versus May 13, 2014 also sheds some light on the specific items that Father’s Day gift-givers were likely to have been seeking out. Two GPS systems (“Magellan GPS” and “Tom Tom”) were among the top terms that grew search share in the weeks leading into Father’s Day last year. Likewise, “GoPro” appeared in two separate fast growing search terms. Gadgets like these and others listed in the adjacent table may be big gifts for the gadget-loving dad again this year. Gone fishin’ Fishing is a timeless family pastime enjoyed by millions of Americans. According to Experian Marketing Services’ Simmons® National Consumer Study, 28 percent of dads and 26 percent of kids ages six to 17 went fishing last year. As such, it’s no surprise that online searches related to fishing spike over Father’s Day weekend. On the Saturday before Father’s Day in 2014, searches including “fishing” were a relative 28 percent higher than they were the Saturday prior and 64 percent higher than they were the following Saturday. To better understand what kids and dads were seeking out for their fishing plans, Experian Marketing Services conducted an analysis comparing variations of “fishing” searches immediately before Father’s Day last year to those performed two weeks prior. It turns out the word “techniques” was almost 8.6 times more likely to appear in fishing-related searches just before Father’s Day than it was two weeks earlier and “tips” was four times more likely to be used. Likewise, “licenses” was used 2.3 times more frequently, which along with the higher use of “techniques” and “tips” is evidence that many would-be fishermen and women are occasional participants at best. The fact that “charter” and “cabins” were used at higher rates however suggests that other children and/or dads had something in mind beyond a lazy (and likely more affordable) afternoon at the local fishing hole. Gift items, too, like “reels,” “gear” and “tackle” were among those most disproportionately used in searches heading into Father’s Day.
Welcome! Who doesn’t like a warm welcome? Whether your customer is walking into your store or just signed up on your website to receive communications from you, she expects a warm reception. It’s important to make that first impression count. A welcome series helps the conversation open up between the customer and your brand. It sets expectations on the types and cadence of content the customer will receive. Welcome emails also garner 86 percent higher open rates than regular promotional mailings – not too shabby! In a recent webinar, Saks Fifth Avenue shared that they are constantly testing new and current programs to optimize the customer experience. As a result, they discovered that switching from batch-sending welcome emails to sending welcome messages in real time increased open, click and redemption rates significantly. Here’s an example of their welcome series: Saks’ results are consistent with Experian Marketing Services’ welcome email findings which indicate that emails triggered in real time receive up to 10 times the transaction rates and revenue per email vs. those that are batched. A welcome series has also been shown to increase retention by educating customers on new ways to use products and services they’ve purchased from your brand. These emails also can remind customers of the benefits they’ll reap from enrolling in your loyalty programs or credit card. … and welcome back Even if a customer has been welcomed and has interacted with your programs, a day may come when the customer goes silent. Reactivation campaigns are an effective way to get them to re-engage. Naturally, it’s important to target your dormant customers in a variety of channels so you can reach them more effectively. Maybe you’re wondering why I jumped from the warmth of a welcome series right into reality of needing a reactivation campaign. The reason? Marketers need to understand where a customer is in their lifecycle and come full circle with customers if they have parted ways. Marketers can pique the interest of a returning customer by telling them what’s new and reintroducing them to their brand. Carnival® Cruise Lines, for example, sends a welcome-back email that features the newest social networks, offers and deals its customers can take advantage of immediately. At the end of the day, customers expect to receive relevant and engaging messages throughout their entire relationship with a brand. Customer life cycle programs deliver just that. If you’re interested in learning more about welcome campaigns, waitlist/back-in-stock programs and other remarketing strategies, check out our webcast,