The AdTech industry is undergoing rapid changes as it adjusts to the impacts of data deprecation and ever-changing privacy regulations. At the same time, there are fears of a potential economic downturn. How should you handle marketing in a recession? What should your marketing mix look like? In this blog post, we’ll cover how to navigate this uncertainty and three essential ingredients for your marketing mix.
First, we’ll look at the complexity and uncertainty facing marketers.
Turbulence with Twitter
After Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover in October 2022, half of Twitter’s top 100 advertisers left the platform and started to seek out alternatives.
The retail media boom
In the next four years, Forrester Research projects that U.S. retail media ad sales will double to reach 85 billion by 2026.1
Most of this growth is catalyzed by CPG and consumer electronic brands that have a scarcity of zero- and first-party data; they need more media closer to the point of purchase, especially as CFOs are scrutinizing budgets.
Consumption continues to fragment
It’s becoming harder than ever to reach the right person, at the right time, predict their intent, and get a 360-degree view of your customer.2
Data deprecation is top of mind
According to Forrester Research, updating their data strategy to address data deprecation is the number one priority for marketers. Addressing data deprecation is also a priority for consumers, who increasingly feel that audience targeting is more intrusive than beneficial.3
Data deprecation affects identity solutions
Third-party data and mobile ad IDs (MAIDs) are the connective tissue for identity solutions. As we see those signals go away, there are fewer linkages to resolve identity and it’s leading to a rise in fragmented, duplicated, and shallow identity.
Recession fears
In addition to everything happening in AdTech, there are also fears of a possible recession. According to Forrester, 40% of Gen Z and 41% of Millennials believe fears of an upcoming recession are greatly exaggerated. On the other hand, only 24% of Gen X and 12% of Baby Boomers agree.4
Navigate uncertainty and marketing in a recession
With the current macroeconomic conditions, data deprecation, and fragmented consumption in mind, what should your strategy look like for marketing in a recession? Forrester recommends three strategies:
- People-led planning
- Test creative
- Optimize for marginal costs
People-led planning
Planning doesn’t have to be fragmented. Map offline and online media exposures to consumer decision journeys. Strategies like lifetime value (LTV) driven audience segmentation to correlate awareness at top of the funnel layered with demand generation exposures harvested later in the funnel. To do this, it’s crucial to work with providers that give you visibility into the audience buyer’s journey to awareness, intent, consideration, and purchase, all the way through to loyalty.5
Test creative
Make your creative work harder for you. Apply the same rigor with your creative that you applied to segmentation. Utilize multivariate testing to identify creative that is winning or losing. When you understand how each variable performs, you can scale the variables with creative optimization to have a material impact on performance.
Optimize for marginal costs
Optimize for marginal costs of acquisition, not just the average. Adjust for incrementality – what is the cost to acquire one more customer, rather than the average cost of acquisition.
Find the right marketing mix in a recession
With these changes in mind, how can you find the right marketing mix in a recession? We can show you the way.
You can create the right marketing mix with three key ingredients:
- Audiences
- Identity
- Activation
Let’s explore each ingredient to start you down the path toward marketing campaign success.
Audiences: Know your customer
The first ingredient to add to your marketing mix in a recession is your audience. Knowing your customer is key to targeting the right audiences successfully. Data-driven targeting can help you find your best audiences based on demographics, modeled lifestyles, and behaviors to improve marketing campaign performance.
Not sure where to start when it comes to developing your target audience strategy? We can help. We track digital usage of our data used by advertisers and identified the top four digital audiences that advertisers purchased over the last four years.
Four digital audiences to consider
Marketing strategies are only as strong as the data foundation they’re built on. The top four digital audiences that advertisers are purchasing from Experian include:
- Demographics
- Behavioral
- Modeled Lifestyles
- Custom Audiences
Demographics
Examples include age, gender, relationship status, living situation, life experience, and employment.
Behavioral
This audience allows marketers to identify households that are more likely to engage in certain activities or belong to certain groups.
Modeled Lifestyles
Experian’s Mosaic® USA segmentation. This is a household-based consumer lifestyle segmentation system that classifies all U.S. households and neighborhoods into 71 unique types and 19 overarching groups, providing a 360-degree view of consumers’ choices, preferences, and habits.
Custom Audiences
This is an audience blended from multiple sources or derived from first-party look-alike modeling.
Changes in digital audience strategies
Over the last four years, Modeled Lifestyles and Custom Audience purchases represented the smallest share of digital activation, while Behavioral and Demographic segments were more popular with advertisers.
When the U.S. rolled out the COVID-19 vaccine, consumers became more active. People were shopping in stores, returning to the gym, and taking trips that they had postponed during the height of the pandemic. Marketers turned to higher compositions of Demographic and Modeled Lifestyles to reach these audiences between April and December of 2021.
Sustained growth in Demographic audience activation could suggest a move back to tried and true audience strategies as signals continue to decline and amid evolving regulation. With economic uncertainty, marketers return to what they know. Traditional targeting methods like Demographics and Modeled Lifestyles are the baseline of many marketing strategies and we predict that we will continue to see marketers activating against these data sets.
Download our 2023 digital audience trends and predictions report to discover our full insights on how digital activation has changed and where we’re headed.
Identity: Understand the customer journey
Identity resolution is the next ingredient that you should add to your marketing mix in a recession. It should be a foundational element of every marketer’s strategy.
What is identity resolution? In the simplest terms, identity resolution is the process of matching different devices, IDs, and touchpoints back to a single person. Identity resolution expands marketers’ addressability and reach of their target audience and helps inform and measure accurate customer journeys.
Identity resolution challenges
Identity resolution faces two main challenges:
- Making the data actionable. Humans are complex. We have behaviors that change based on our current social groups and life events, we use dozens of internet-connected devices in a single day, and we exhibit distinct behaviors that happen online and in the physical world. This means marketers have mounds of data being collected from different channels based on that dynamic behavior of people, making it feel impossible to organize the data in a way that makes it feel actionable, know how it ties back to real humans, and ensure they’re doing it in a responsible and compliant way.
- Signal loss. Marketers continue to lose important signals that they’ve previously been able to rely on to inform their next move. Signals are being lost as our industry places more privacy regulations and restrictions on what can be tracked and as consumers themselves change behaviors to protect their privacy.
As consumer behaviors continue to change and signals disappear, identity resolution gets exponentially harder.
Expand addressability and reach with identity resolution
Data deprecation adversely affects identity solutions, but identity resolution should be a key ingredient in your marketing mix. Identity resolution ensures that consumers experience more relevant products, offers, and messaging – allowing you to reap the ROI benefits of hitting consumers at the perfect point in their journey.
Finding an identity resolution partner
When selecting an identity resolution partner, you should understand the data and processes that are implemented behind the scenes. It’s important to know:
- What makes up their consumer database?
- How fresh is their data?
- What identifiers can they match?
- How do they protect consumer privacy?
At Experian, we’re rooted in deterministic offline data which creates a stable foundation. We then layer in digital and behavioral touchpoints. We have decades of experience managing consumer data safely. We have insights on 250 million individuals, three billion devices, and one trillion device signals. Our databases evolve as quickly as the human behavior powering them does.
Our approach to identity resolution is open and agnostic. This means we can collect and ingest nearly all available offline and online identifiers. We can do this in all types of environments, including connected TV (CTV), mobile, and cookieless. We have two types of identity resolution:
- Offline
- Digital
This ensures we control how known and anonymous data points are connected for consumer privacy purposes.
Identity resolution in action
Our depth of data gives our clients access to see the whole human and gain the context around singular data points.
Let’s walk through an example of our identity resolution capabilities.
Challenge
Our TV media platform client needed to measure the effectiveness of an ad campaign they were running on behalf of a leading consumer electronics brand. The TV platform wanted to be able to accurately report on which consumers made a purchase after seeing the brand’s TV commercial on their platforms.
Solution
Using our digital identity resolution services, our client could capture online purchases made on the brand’s website and link them back to a consumer profile. In addition to online transactions, our client used our offline resolution services to resolve email addresses of consumers that purchased offline, using warranty registration details.
With online and offline purchase data now resolved back to an individual ID, we also performed identity resolution on viewers in their TV subscriber files that had also been exposed to the TV commercial. This allowed us to identify subscribers that had both seen the ad and purchased a product.
We provided our client with a packaged report that they could white-label and pass along to the brand.
Results
By providing this attribution reporting to the brand, the TV platform could validate the ROI spent on their platform. The brand was extremely satisfied with the results, and they transitioned the one-off TV commercial into an ongoing campaign and purchased quarterly measurement. This led to solid recurring revenue for the TV platform.
Activation: Experiment and measure the impact
The third and final ingredient to finding the right marketing mix in a recession is activation. Experimentation is the best way to determine which channels work best for your business and provide the most ROI.
Demand-side platforms (DSP), video platforms, and sell-side targeting are three important activation channels that you should consider experimenting with.
Demand-side platforms
We continue to see increased demand for environments where alternative identifiers are being transacted (like DSPs and video). Social channels are decreasing; this can be attributed to changes in privacy, security, and concerns around brand safety.
Amazon’s DSP is catching up with Google and Meta to become a top ad platform.
Video platforms
Digital video and other video channels like over-the-top (OTT) and CTV will continue to grow. Digital video will capture the most ad spend in 2023 (22.4% in 2023 vs 19.3% in 2022). Because of this, advertisers are placing bigger bets on the combination of addressable and CTV.
Sell-side targeting
Data sharing relationships will become strongest on the sell-side as we move toward consented first-party data. Ad dollars are shifting to channels that use the sell-side approach, like retail media and CTV.
Sell-side targeting enables brands to access large amounts of inventory across publishers and retailers. By getting closer to the ad inventory, advertisers can future-proof their strategies by having more access to better data signals. Direct relationships like these will be necessary as privacy regulations increase and signal loss continues.
We can help you find the right marketing mix in a recession
Now is the time to be opportunistic. Gaining share of voice during a downturn is cost-effective. Proactive marketing builds pent-up demand.
Delivering the right message in the right place at the right time means truly knowing your prospects and customers as individuals. At Experian, we bring you the highest-resolution picture of people, so you and your customers can connect with confidence.
You can turn prospects into customers with the right audience. By understanding your customers better, you can find more like them. Together we can power better results.
Find the right marketing mix
Check out our webinar, “Find the right marketing mix with rising consumer expectations.” Guest speaker, Nikhil Lai, Senior Analyst from Forrester Research, joined Experian experts Erin Haselkorn and Eden Wilbur. Watch the recording to learn:
- New data on the complexity and uncertainty facing marketers
- Consumer trends for 2023
- Recommendations on finding the right channel mix and the right consumers
Sources
- 2022 Retail Media Ad Sales Forecast, US. Forrester Research, Inc. 2022.
- Forrester Analytics Consumer Technographics® Technology, Media, and Telecom Topic Insights 1 Survey. Forrester Research, Inc. 2020.
- CMO Pulse Survey. Forrester Research, Inc. July 2021.
- Forrester’s Consumer Energy And Retail Online Survey. Forrester Research, Inc.
- People-Led Planning Solves Customer Problems to Drive Growth. Forrester Research, Inc. August 2, 2021.
Latest posts
Privacy-forward pharma media supports more informed healthcare journeys Effective pharma marketing depends on reaching patients, caregivers, and healthcare professionals (HCPs) with useful information in appropriate, privacy-forward ways. The goal is to make relevant education easier to find, support more informed conversations, and help brands understand how media contributes across the health journey. In this Ask the Expert session, Natalie Mancuso, SVP, Data Partnerships at DeepIntent, joins Sheila Wirick, who leads the health team at Experian, to discuss how to craft patient and HCP campaigns, privacy-safe activation workflows, connected TV (CTV), and measurement approaches built for pharma. Why should your media plan start with understanding the patient and provider The patient-and-provider journey should inform your media plan, as treatment decisions in pharma are increasingly informed, personal, and patient-driven. With more health information available than ever, patients are playing a more active role in understanding their options and participating in treatment conversations. As other industries become more customer-centric, pharma media planning needs to become more patient-centric. “We’ve got patients who are more informed, more involved in their treatment decisions than ever. The accessibility of data and information and the ways we can consume it with just AI alone is so vast that if we’re not arming people with the right information in real time, we’re missing the boat.”Natalie Mancuso, SVP, Data Partnerships This means media should be aligned to where a patient or provider is in the decision journey and what they need at that moment. Early on, media may play an educational role by building awareness of a condition, symptom, or treatment category. Later, it may help support more specific questions, treatment consideration, access, affordability, or adherence. The patient-provider conversation remains the key boundary. That exchange should stay private and clinically led. Media can play a valuable role before and after those moments by offering information that helps patients and providers feel more informed. How can brands connect patient and HCP messaging responsibly? It’s critical for agencies and brands to deliver relevant messaging to inform each stakeholder’s needs throughout the treatment journey, especially ahead of key clinical milestones. To execute this, brands must exercise privacy-forward activation, keeping patient and HCP identity, activation, and measurement paths separate, while using a common workflow layer to support the same brand goal. Experian helps pharma marketers do this by acting as an independent, privacy-forward identity, data, and workflow layer. We bring together high-fidelity matching, governed onboarding, and non-clinical consumer context, so patient and HCP engagement can be activated more accurately across channels and connected to reporting. The distinction is not only where each audience is reached. HCPs may be engaged in both professional and personal environments, but their needs are different from patients’. For example, an HCP may receive messaging about co-pay savings for eligible patients, while a patient may receive information about patient support programs. These are different messages for different audiences, but they ladder up to the same goal: informing both parties in a privacy-forward, relevant way. Hear from Natalie Mancuso in our 2026 State of advertising report In our 2026 State of advertising report, Natalie shares why identity serves as the connective infrastructure that links planning, activation, and measurement across connected TV (CTV), programmatic, commerce media, and walled garden environments. Download the report Watch Natalie’s Q&A What does privacy-forward activation look like in pharma? Pharma brands often start with fragmented patient and HCP signals. Privacy-forward activation turns those inputs into usable audiences by first confirming that the data can be used, then translating identity in controlled environments that protect personally identifiable information through tokenization or other methodologies. For DTC, that means building and matching audiences without relying on inferred health conditions from browsing behavior. For HCPs, it means connecting professional identity to verified sources in a way that supports activation and measurement. In a category shaped by HIPAA, state privacy laws, internal review, and consumer sensitivity, building privacy in from sourcing through activation is what makes responsible health media possible. How can CTV play a more useful role in pharma? CTV can play a more useful role in healthcare when it’s connected to a larger, privacy-forward plan and not treated as just an awareness channel. DeepIntent connects CTV and digital exposure data using identity signals, such as National Provider Identifiers (NPIs), hashed email addresses, IP addresses, device IDs, and household signals, where permitted and reviewed. That identity layer helps support sequencing and suppression across streaming, endemic, mobile, and digital settings. In practice, CTV can introduce targeted education or broad brand awareness, and later touchpoints can provide sequential information in the right channels. Instead of repeating the same message, brands can make pivots based on engagement and context. “For us, it starts with identity and not panels. When we’re resolving CTV and digital exposures to the same person, we’re leveraging signals so that every touchpoint across streaming, endemic, and mobile is recognized as the same individual, not model lookalikes.”Natalie Mancuso, SVP, Data Partnerships For pharma, campaign performance should not be measured by reach alone. A stronger approach looks at whether sequenced engagement contributes to meaningful downstream signals, including: Prescription activity Provider engagement Referral patterns Patient compliance Adherence signals, where measurement is permitted Why should messaging and reporting change in pharma? Pharma campaigns are journeys with changing information needs. Reporting should guide the campaign optimization. “If I’m launching into a market with a new class of drug, I’m asking what education needs to be put into the market – from both an HCP and a consumer standpoint – to build awareness?”Natalie Mancuso, SVP, Data Partnerships Clicks and website visits still have a place, but they can’t tell the full pharma story. DeepIntent processes data in real time, giving brands an up-to-date read on how media connects to campaign engagement. Campaign signals can help teams optimize audience logic, creative, channel mix, or sequencing during a live campaign. Heading Test for Media & Text Block Content Test for Media &Text Block Learn more Heading Test for Media & Text Block Content Test for Media &Text Block Learn more Heading Test for Media & Text Block Content Test for Media &Text Block Learn more Explore how privacy-safe pharma activation can make an impact Experian brings marketing data and identity expertise for health marketing and DeepIntent adds pharma-specific activation experience. Together, we help brands connect patient and HCP strategies responsibly, with privacy built in from the start. Watch the full video with our experts to hear Sheila Wirick and Natalie Mancuso discuss patient and HCP messaging, CTV, privacy-safe activation, and outcome measurement for pharma brands. About our experts Natalie Mancuso SVP, Data Partnerships, DeepIntent Natalie Mancuso is SVP, Data Partnerships at DeepIntent and a leader in health-focused AdTech and DSP strategy. With over 20 years of experience growing billion-dollar healthcare brands, she turns complex data into scalable, performance-driven solutions that keep marketers ahead of industry change. Sheila Wirick Director of Health Sales, Experian Sheila Wirick is the Director of Health Sales at Experian with more than 20 years of experience in data and analytics. As Director of Health Sales at Experian Marketing Services, she collaborates with healthcare, pharmaceutical, and nonprofit organizations to apply data and insights that enhance customer retention, brand awareness, and acquisition. She is committed to helping organizations use data to deliver measurable results and meaningful impact. FAQs What makes a pharma audience activation-ready? A pharma audience is activation-ready when patient or HCP inputs can be translated into usable audiences with the right accuracy, controls, interoperability, and destination readiness. For patient engagement, that may include privacy-safe cohort construction, caregiver logic, non-clinical enrichment and appropriate exclusion rules. For HCP engagement, it may include governed identity inputs such as NPI, specialty, practice location, professional address and other verified attributes where appropriate. How can pharma brands sequence messages across channels responsibly? Pharma brands can sequence messages responsibly by giving each channel a clear role and using audience logic to maintain continuity. CTV and out-of-home can support awareness, social can reinforce the message, search can capture active research and point-of-care or rep-triggered channels can support decision moments. The workflow should preserve separation between patient and HCP identity strategies. What should pharma marketers measure beyond clicks and site visits? Pharma marketers should measure whether media connects to outcomes such as audience quality, prescription activity, qualified HCP engagement, verified delivery, referral patterns, therapy starts or adherence signals where permitted. These outcomes often depend on partner-enabled workflows, clean rooms, and aggregated outputs rather than direct end-to-end tracking. How does Experian help pharma brands connect identity, activation and measurement? Experian acts as an independent privacy-first identity, data, and workflow layer for pharma marketers. We help brands bring together identity, high-fidelity matching, governed onboarding, non-clinical consumer context, and partner interoperability so patient and HCP engagement can be activated more accurately across channels and connected more cleanly to partner-enabled measurement. Latest posts
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Use case #1: Identifying customer spending potential to boost growth for a retail chain Objective Solution Results The solution By syncing its cookies with the Digital Graph, the DSP gained access to related identifiers, including: This expanded identity universe gave the DSP a unified view of individuals and households, making it possible to connect impressions to conversions across devices and channels. With each weekly refresh, attribution models stayed accurate and up to date, turning fragmented signals into proof of performance. Results Within weeks, the DSP saw measurable improvements