The AdTech industry is undergoing rapid changes as it adjusts to the impacts of data deprecation and ever-changing privacy regulations. At the same time, there are fears of a potential economic downturn. How should you handle marketing in a recession? What should your marketing mix look like? In this blog post, we’ll cover how to navigate this uncertainty and three essential ingredients for your marketing mix.
First, we’ll look at the complexity and uncertainty facing marketers.
Turbulence with Twitter
After Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover in October 2022, half of Twitter’s top 100 advertisers left the platform and started to seek out alternatives.
The retail media boom
In the next four years, Forrester Research projects that U.S. retail media ad sales will double to reach 85 billion by 2026.1
Most of this growth is catalyzed by CPG and consumer electronic brands that have a scarcity of zero- and first-party data; they need more media closer to the point of purchase, especially as CFOs are scrutinizing budgets.
Consumption continues to fragment
It’s becoming harder than ever to reach the right person, at the right time, predict their intent, and get a 360-degree view of your customer.2
Data deprecation is top of mind
According to Forrester Research, updating their data strategy to address data deprecation is the number one priority for marketers. Addressing data deprecation is also a priority for consumers, who increasingly feel that audience targeting is more intrusive than beneficial.3
Data deprecation affects identity solutions
Third-party data and mobile ad IDs (MAIDs) are the connective tissue for identity solutions. As we see those signals go away, there are fewer linkages to resolve identity and it’s leading to a rise in fragmented, duplicated, and shallow identity.
Recession fears
In addition to everything happening in AdTech, there are also fears of a possible recession. According to Forrester, 40% of Gen Z and 41% of Millennials believe fears of an upcoming recession are greatly exaggerated. On the other hand, only 24% of Gen X and 12% of Baby Boomers agree.4
Navigate uncertainty and marketing in a recession
With the current macroeconomic conditions, data deprecation, and fragmented consumption in mind, what should your strategy look like for marketing in a recession? Forrester recommends three strategies:
- People-led planning
- Test creative
- Optimize for marginal costs
People-led planning
Planning doesn’t have to be fragmented. Map offline and online media exposures to consumer decision journeys. Strategies like lifetime value (LTV) driven audience segmentation to correlate awareness at top of the funnel layered with demand generation exposures harvested later in the funnel. To do this, it’s crucial to work with providers that give you visibility into the audience buyer’s journey to awareness, intent, consideration, and purchase, all the way through to loyalty.5
Test creative
Make your creative work harder for you. Apply the same rigor with your creative that you applied to segmentation. Utilize multivariate testing to identify creative that is winning or losing. When you understand how each variable performs, you can scale the variables with creative optimization to have a material impact on performance.
Optimize for marginal costs
Optimize for marginal costs of acquisition, not just the average. Adjust for incrementality – what is the cost to acquire one more customer, rather than the average cost of acquisition.
Find the right marketing mix in a recession
With these changes in mind, how can you find the right marketing mix in a recession? We can show you the way.
You can create the right marketing mix with three key ingredients:
- Audiences
- Identity
- Activation
Let’s explore each ingredient to start you down the path toward marketing campaign success.
Audiences: Know your customer
The first ingredient to add to your marketing mix in a recession is your audience. Knowing your customer is key to targeting the right audiences successfully. Data-driven targeting can help you find your best audiences based on demographics, modeled lifestyles, and behaviors to improve marketing campaign performance.
Not sure where to start when it comes to developing your target audience strategy? We can help. We track digital usage of our data used by advertisers and identified the top four digital audiences that advertisers purchased over the last four years.
Four digital audiences to consider
Marketing strategies are only as strong as the data foundation they’re built on. The top four digital audiences that advertisers are purchasing from Experian include:
- Demographics
- Behavioral
- Modeled Lifestyles
- Custom Audiences
Demographics
Examples include age, gender, relationship status, living situation, life experience, and employment.
Behavioral
This audience allows marketers to identify households that are more likely to engage in certain activities or belong to certain groups.
Modeled Lifestyles
Experian’s Mosaic® USA segmentation. This is a household-based consumer lifestyle segmentation system that classifies all U.S. households and neighborhoods into 71 unique types and 19 overarching groups, providing a 360-degree view of consumers’ choices, preferences, and habits.
Custom Audiences
This is an audience blended from multiple sources or derived from first-party look-alike modeling.
Changes in digital audience strategies
Over the last four years, Modeled Lifestyles and Custom Audience purchases represented the smallest share of digital activation, while Behavioral and Demographic segments were more popular with advertisers.
When the U.S. rolled out the COVID-19 vaccine, consumers became more active. People were shopping in stores, returning to the gym, and taking trips that they had postponed during the height of the pandemic. Marketers turned to higher compositions of Demographic and Modeled Lifestyles to reach these audiences between April and December of 2021.
Sustained growth in Demographic audience activation could suggest a move back to tried and true audience strategies as signals continue to decline and amid evolving regulation. With economic uncertainty, marketers return to what they know. Traditional targeting methods like Demographics and Modeled Lifestyles are the baseline of many marketing strategies and we predict that we will continue to see marketers activating against these data sets.
Download our 2023 digital audience trends and predictions report to discover our full insights on how digital activation has changed and where we’re headed.
Identity: Understand the customer journey
Identity resolution is the next ingredient that you should add to your marketing mix in a recession. It should be a foundational element of every marketer’s strategy.
What is identity resolution? In the simplest terms, identity resolution is the process of matching different devices, IDs, and touchpoints back to a single person. Identity resolution expands marketers’ addressability and reach of their target audience and helps inform and measure accurate customer journeys.
Identity resolution challenges
Identity resolution faces two main challenges:
- Making the data actionable. Humans are complex. We have behaviors that change based on our current social groups and life events, we use dozens of internet-connected devices in a single day, and we exhibit distinct behaviors that happen online and in the physical world. This means marketers have mounds of data being collected from different channels based on that dynamic behavior of people, making it feel impossible to organize the data in a way that makes it feel actionable, know how it ties back to real humans, and ensure they’re doing it in a responsible and compliant way.
- Signal loss. Marketers continue to lose important signals that they’ve previously been able to rely on to inform their next move. Signals are being lost as our industry places more privacy regulations and restrictions on what can be tracked and as consumers themselves change behaviors to protect their privacy.
As consumer behaviors continue to change and signals disappear, identity resolution gets exponentially harder.
Expand addressability and reach with identity resolution
Data deprecation adversely affects identity solutions, but identity resolution should be a key ingredient in your marketing mix. Identity resolution ensures that consumers experience more relevant products, offers, and messaging – allowing you to reap the ROI benefits of hitting consumers at the perfect point in their journey.
Finding an identity resolution partner
When selecting an identity resolution partner, you should understand the data and processes that are implemented behind the scenes. It’s important to know:
- What makes up their consumer database?
- How fresh is their data?
- What identifiers can they match?
- How do they protect consumer privacy?
At Experian, we’re rooted in deterministic offline data which creates a stable foundation. We then layer in digital and behavioral touchpoints. We have decades of experience managing consumer data safely. We have insights on 250 million individuals, three billion devices, and one trillion device signals. Our databases evolve as quickly as the human behavior powering them does.
Our approach to identity resolution is open and agnostic. This means we can collect and ingest nearly all available offline and online identifiers. We can do this in all types of environments, including connected TV (CTV), mobile, and cookieless. We have two types of identity resolution:
- Offline
- Digital
This ensures we control how known and anonymous data points are connected for consumer privacy purposes.
Identity resolution in action
Our depth of data gives our clients access to see the whole human and gain the context around singular data points.
Let’s walk through an example of our identity resolution capabilities.
Challenge
Our TV media platform client needed to measure the effectiveness of an ad campaign they were running on behalf of a leading consumer electronics brand. The TV platform wanted to be able to accurately report on which consumers made a purchase after seeing the brand’s TV commercial on their platforms.
Solution
Using our digital identity resolution services, our client could capture online purchases made on the brand’s website and link them back to a consumer profile. In addition to online transactions, our client used our offline resolution services to resolve email addresses of consumers that purchased offline, using warranty registration details.
With online and offline purchase data now resolved back to an individual ID, we also performed identity resolution on viewers in their TV subscriber files that had also been exposed to the TV commercial. This allowed us to identify subscribers that had both seen the ad and purchased a product.
We provided our client with a packaged report that they could white-label and pass along to the brand.
Results
By providing this attribution reporting to the brand, the TV platform could validate the ROI spent on their platform. The brand was extremely satisfied with the results, and they transitioned the one-off TV commercial into an ongoing campaign and purchased quarterly measurement. This led to solid recurring revenue for the TV platform.
Activation: Experiment and measure the impact
The third and final ingredient to finding the right marketing mix in a recession is activation. Experimentation is the best way to determine which channels work best for your business and provide the most ROI.
Demand-side platforms (DSP), video platforms, and sell-side targeting are three important activation channels that you should consider experimenting with.
Demand-side platforms
We continue to see increased demand for environments where alternative identifiers are being transacted (like DSPs and video). Social channels are decreasing; this can be attributed to changes in privacy, security, and concerns around brand safety.
Amazon’s DSP is catching up with Google and Meta to become a top ad platform.
Video platforms
Digital video and other video channels like over-the-top (OTT) and CTV will continue to grow. Digital video will capture the most ad spend in 2023 (22.4% in 2023 vs 19.3% in 2022). Because of this, advertisers are placing bigger bets on the combination of addressable and CTV.
Sell-side targeting
Data sharing relationships will become strongest on the sell-side as we move toward consented first-party data. Ad dollars are shifting to channels that use the sell-side approach, like retail media and CTV.
Sell-side targeting enables brands to access large amounts of inventory across publishers and retailers. By getting closer to the ad inventory, advertisers can future-proof their strategies by having more access to better data signals. Direct relationships like these will be necessary as privacy regulations increase and signal loss continues.
We can help you find the right marketing mix in a recession
Now is the time to be opportunistic. Gaining share of voice during a downturn is cost-effective. Proactive marketing builds pent-up demand.
Delivering the right message in the right place at the right time means truly knowing your prospects and customers as individuals. At Experian, we bring you the highest-resolution picture of people, so you and your customers can connect with confidence.
You can turn prospects into customers with the right audience. By understanding your customers better, you can find more like them. Together we can power better results.
Find the right marketing mix
Check out our webinar, “Find the right marketing mix with rising consumer expectations.” Guest speaker, Nikhil Lai, Senior Analyst from Forrester Research, joined Experian experts Erin Haselkorn and Eden Wilbur. Watch the recording to learn:
- New data on the complexity and uncertainty facing marketers
- Consumer trends for 2023
- Recommendations on finding the right channel mix and the right consumers
Sources
- 2022 Retail Media Ad Sales Forecast, US. Forrester Research, Inc. 2022.
- Forrester Analytics Consumer Technographics® Technology, Media, and Telecom Topic Insights 1 Survey. Forrester Research, Inc. 2020.
- CMO Pulse Survey. Forrester Research, Inc. July 2021.
- Forrester’s Consumer Energy And Retail Online Survey. Forrester Research, Inc.
- People-Led Planning Solves Customer Problems to Drive Growth. Forrester Research, Inc. August 2, 2021.
Latest posts
In our upcoming 2011 Digital Marketer Report, we will cover what influences purchase decisions. While you'll have to wait to read the report to see the entire list, when ranking influencers to purchase decisions: 54% of U.S. adults identified old-fashioned Word of Mouth (WOM), while information from webpages (47%) ranked second and online consumer reviews (31%) ranked as the third most important. It's nearly impossible to measure old-fashioned WOM, and “Information from a website” is a very broad category. Gauging the uptake in online consumer reviews is another story, however. Visits to online review pure-play Yelp.com is a good proxy for the uptake in online reviews in the service sector (restaurants, dry cleaners and dentists to name a few). Over the past two years, visits to Yelp.com have increased over 136%. Given such impressive and steady growth since 2009, you might assume that Yelp and other sites like it have become ubiquitous. Your assumption, however, would be incorrect. While age demographics of visitors to the site show that use of the online consumer reviews has reached maturity (Internet users over the age of 55 make up the largest age bin at 25%), geo-demographics, or visits by DMA, tell a completely different story. The top five cities by representation; San Francisco, San Diego, Monterey, Los Angeles and Sacramento reveal the first skew, that Yelp.com visitors favor the West Coast, where the company was founded. So it seems that, by percentage, the largest U.S. cities also figure significant. When looking at visitors to the site by Mosaic™ segments, Americas Wealthiest, Young Cosmopolitans and other affluent types figure heavily in the site's traffic. Taken all together, the numbers reveal that while Yelp.com continues to grow, its participants continue to be a very distinct subset of U.S. Internet users. This niche set of users might explain why traditional WOM continues to show more significance in influencing purchase decisions. Want to learn more about other purchase decision influencers? Click here to request a copy of Experian Marketing Services highly-anticipated 2011 Digital Marketer Report, launching in late March. The report features an editorial by Bill Tancer as well as unreleased data spanning email, social, mobile, search and more.
College basketball mania is here. First round NCAA tournament action tips off this week leading up to the Final Four in Houston and Indianapolis for the men and women respectively. With March Madness just around the corner, Experian Marketing Services' data team started to wonder — how do TV viewers of the men's tournament differ from viewers of the women's tournament? The women's game has come a long way since the first women's collegiate basketball championship in 1972. This will be the ninth year that all 63 games of the tournament are televised nationally. Looking back to 1982 when the finals were contested in Norfolk, Virginia, only 37 media credentials were issued. This has increased 14 fold when compared to the 530 media credentials issued in San Antonio last year. The men's game is as popular as ever drawing impressive TV ratings, especially during tournament time. Remember Butler's drive to the Final Four last year and their near upset of Duke? CBS reported that 48 million viewers watched at least some of the championship game. According to viewership data from Experian Simmons, men's tournament viewers outnumbered women's tournament viewers by a ratio of 3.7 to 1. That's nearly four men's tournament viewers for every viewer of the women's tournament. So who might be watching this year? Using Experian's Mosaic consumer lifestyle segmentation system combined with last year's tournament viewership data from Experian Simmons, we took a closer look. Men's Tournament Viewers Rise Above The Rim On Affluence The men's tournament draws a significant share of viewers from affluent households. Nearly half of viewers have household income of $75,000 or over. The ten most affluent Mosaic segments have an over-representation of men's tournament viewers compared to their corresponding share of U.S. adults. This includes Dream Weavers (well-off families with school age children, living an affluent suburban version of the American Dream), Enterprising Couples (married couples with children and childless duos living in upper-middle-class commuter communities), and New Suburbia Families (young, affluent working couples with pre-school children concentrated in fast-growing, metro fringe communities). Nearly half of the men's tournament TV viewers have household income of $75,000 or over. True to its name, the Dream Weavers segment is a college basketball advertiser's dream for home electronics, home furnishings, home improvement and home office supplies. All of these home-centered categories are near and dear to Dream Weaver householders many of whom will be following the men's tournament very closely in a variety of media formats including online, in HDTV, and on their smart phones. Brands and retail stores that have particular appeal to Dream Weavers include Nordstrom, Ralph Lauren, Nike, Eddie Bauer, Sephora, Dick's Sporting Goods and Banana Republic. But that's not to say that only affluent consumers are watching the men's tournament. Other segments with an above average concentration of men's tournament viewers include African-American Neighborhoods, Minority Metro Communities, America's Farmlands, and Young Cosmopolitans. Men's tournament viewers participate in a wide range of leisure and sport's activities (most notably golfing, football, softball, racquet sports, and weight training), have a preference for driving Cadillac, Acura, and Lexus automobiles, and have a high concentration of readers of such magazine titles as Golf Digest, Sports Illustrated, ESPN The Magazine, Barron's, and Black Enterprise. Women's Tournament Delivers Younger, More Ethnically Diverse Audience The audience for the women's tournament is decidedly different from the men's. About six out of every ten viewers have household income below $75,000. Mosaic segments with the greatest over-representation of women's tournament viewers include Struggling City Centers (young, single and single-parent minority renters living in low-income city neighborhoods throughout the South) and Minority Metro Communities (married couples and single-parent minorities with above-average incomes working in a mix of service industry and white-collar jobs). These two segments alone account for nearly 20% of the women's tournament viewing audience and contain about 2.5 times the concentration of viewers relative to their corresponding share of U.S. adults. Women's college basketball advertisers should note that the tournament delivers a less affluent audience compared to the men. Using Minority Metro Communities as an example, brands and retail stores that have particular appeal to this group and to the broader women's tournament audience overall include 7-Eleven, Ace Hardware, Hallmark, Sam's Club, Kmart, Dollar General, Big Lots, and Marshall's. Women's college basketball advertisers should note that the tournament delivers a less affluent audience compared to the men. Only four of the ten most affluent Mosaic segments have an over-representation of women's tournament viewers. When comparing a segment's share of the overall women's tournament viewing audience to its corresponding share of the men's tournament viewing audience, three of these four segments account for a higher share of women's viewers. These are America's Wealthiest, White Collar Suburbia, and Affluent Urban Professionals. Advertisers will be pleased to know that interest in the tournament from these segments helps lift the viewing audience into a higher income demographic. Using White Collar Suburbia as an example, retail stores that have particular appeal to this segment of the population include Brooks Brothers, Costco, Gap, J. Crew, Kohl's, Lord & Taylor, and Victoria's Secret. Other segments that contain a significantly higher share of women's viewers compared to men include Small-city Endeavors (a mix of lower income singles, families, and single parents living in older homes and small apartments in working class towns) and Professional Urbanites (upper-middle-class empty nesting couples and older singles in metropolitan areas). Men’s Tournament Viewers Compared to Women’s Tournament Viewers Men’s Tournament Top Ten Most Affluent Mosaic Segments Women’s Tournament America’s Wealthiest Dream Weavers White Collar Suburbia Upscale Suburbanites Enterprising Couples Small-town Success New Suburbia Families Status-conscious Consumers Affluent Urban Professionals Urban Commuter Families = Index of 100 to 125 = Index of 126 to 150 = Index above 150 The index shows the concentration of viewers for the men's and women's tournament for a segment compared to the segment's share of U.S. adults. For example, an index above 150 means that adults from the segment are 50% more likely to watch the tournament compared to U.S. adults overall.
Along with death and taxes, the third certainty as an online marketer is change. When we combine the rapid rate of online innovation with consumers' relentless pursuit of finding the best possible price, a pursuit that kicks into overdrive with economic uncertainty, it's critical to anticipate changes in consumer behavior and the adoption of new buying modalities. Here are three things that you should know about the group coupon phenomenon. By now, most of us are aware of Groupon, the privately held Chicago group couponing-company that rejected Google's $6 billion dollar acquisition offer in late 2010. Since it's founding in 2009, Groupon has grown to over 5 million visits per week to take the #25 spot in the Experian Hitwise Shopping & Classifieds category1 for the week ending January 29, 2011. But is Groupon, or more generally the category of online group buying, a fad or a significant change in the way we buy online? Here are three things that you should know about the group coupon phenomenon. Group Buying Has Reached Mainstream Adoption If you think that this new social buying trend is fueled by early adopters of technology, the young and hip technocrats, you may have been correct in January 2010. Today, you would be completely off the mark. According to Experian Hitwise for the four weeks ending January 29, 2011, the largest age-bin for visitors to Groupon.com are those Internet users over the age of 55 (37.5%). There is Applicability to Local and National Retailers While group coupons were heralded as the perfect solution for local online commerce, successful deals with national retailers (both bricks-and-mortar such as GAP and online pure-plays like Amazon.com) indicate that this movement will take its place alongside email and search as a key channel for marketers to consider. On January 19, 2011, LivingSocial.com, a Groupon competitor, offered a $20 Amazon credit for $10 (it should be noted that Amazon invested $175 million in LivingSocial.com). According to PC Magazine, over 1.3 million certificates were sold at a rate of over 100,000 per hour. The Race to Dominate the Space is Heating Up LivingSocial's Amazon play did more than just put up impressive numbers; it was a clear sign that the site is a viable threat to category leader, Groupon. According to Groupon CEO Andrew Mason, Groupon has over 500 competitors in the marketplace and growing. Have you considered group buying for your business? Along with anticipating this trend, with the growing number of competitors and offers you should think one step ahead – will consumers succumb to daily deal fatigue? Want to learn more about digital marketing in 2011? Click here to request a copy of Experian Marketing Services highly-anticipated 2011 Digital Marketer Report, launching in late March. The report features an editorial by Bill Tancer as well as unreleased data spanning email, social, mobile, search and more. ——— 1 Shopping and Classifieds Category: 28,586 top sites that specialize in online shopping, auctions and classifieds