The AdTech industry is undergoing rapid changes as it adjusts to the impacts of data deprecation and ever-changing privacy regulations. At the same time, there are fears of a potential economic downturn. How should you handle marketing in a recession? What should your marketing mix look like? In this blog post, we’ll cover how to navigate this uncertainty and three essential ingredients for your marketing mix.
First, we’ll look at the complexity and uncertainty facing marketers.
Turbulence with Twitter
After Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover in October 2022, half of Twitter’s top 100 advertisers left the platform and started to seek out alternatives.
The retail media boom
In the next four years, Forrester Research projects that U.S. retail media ad sales will double to reach 85 billion by 2026.1
Most of this growth is catalyzed by CPG and consumer electronic brands that have a scarcity of zero- and first-party data; they need more media closer to the point of purchase, especially as CFOs are scrutinizing budgets.
Consumption continues to fragment
It’s becoming harder than ever to reach the right person, at the right time, predict their intent, and get a 360-degree view of your customer.2
Data deprecation is top of mind
According to Forrester Research, updating their data strategy to address data deprecation is the number one priority for marketers. Addressing data deprecation is also a priority for consumers, who increasingly feel that audience targeting is more intrusive than beneficial.3
Data deprecation affects identity solutions
Third-party data and mobile ad IDs (MAIDs) are the connective tissue for identity solutions. As we see those signals go away, there are fewer linkages to resolve identity and it’s leading to a rise in fragmented, duplicated, and shallow identity.
Recession fears
In addition to everything happening in AdTech, there are also fears of a possible recession. According to Forrester, 40% of Gen Z and 41% of Millennials believe fears of an upcoming recession are greatly exaggerated. On the other hand, only 24% of Gen X and 12% of Baby Boomers agree.4
Navigate uncertainty and marketing in a recession
With the current macroeconomic conditions, data deprecation, and fragmented consumption in mind, what should your strategy look like for marketing in a recession? Forrester recommends three strategies:
- People-led planning
- Test creative
- Optimize for marginal costs
People-led planning
Planning doesn’t have to be fragmented. Map offline and online media exposures to consumer decision journeys. Strategies like lifetime value (LTV) driven audience segmentation to correlate awareness at top of the funnel layered with demand generation exposures harvested later in the funnel. To do this, it’s crucial to work with providers that give you visibility into the audience buyer’s journey to awareness, intent, consideration, and purchase, all the way through to loyalty.5
Test creative
Make your creative work harder for you. Apply the same rigor with your creative that you applied to segmentation. Utilize multivariate testing to identify creative that is winning or losing. When you understand how each variable performs, you can scale the variables with creative optimization to have a material impact on performance.
Optimize for marginal costs
Optimize for marginal costs of acquisition, not just the average. Adjust for incrementality – what is the cost to acquire one more customer, rather than the average cost of acquisition.
Find the right marketing mix in a recession
With these changes in mind, how can you find the right marketing mix in a recession? We can show you the way.
You can create the right marketing mix with three key ingredients:
- Audiences
- Identity
- Activation
Let’s explore each ingredient to start you down the path toward marketing campaign success.
Audiences: Know your customer
The first ingredient to add to your marketing mix in a recession is your audience. Knowing your customer is key to targeting the right audiences successfully. Data-driven targeting can help you find your best audiences based on demographics, modeled lifestyles, and behaviors to improve marketing campaign performance.
Not sure where to start when it comes to developing your target audience strategy? We can help. We track digital usage of our data used by advertisers and identified the top four digital audiences that advertisers purchased over the last four years.
Four digital audiences to consider
Marketing strategies are only as strong as the data foundation they’re built on. The top four digital audiences that advertisers are purchasing from Experian include:
- Demographics
- Behavioral
- Modeled Lifestyles
- Custom Audiences
Demographics
Examples include age, gender, relationship status, living situation, life experience, and employment.
Behavioral
This audience allows marketers to identify households that are more likely to engage in certain activities or belong to certain groups.
Modeled Lifestyles
Experian’s Mosaic® USA segmentation. This is a household-based consumer lifestyle segmentation system that classifies all U.S. households and neighborhoods into 71 unique types and 19 overarching groups, providing a 360-degree view of consumers’ choices, preferences, and habits.
Custom Audiences
This is an audience blended from multiple sources or derived from first-party look-alike modeling.
Changes in digital audience strategies
Over the last four years, Modeled Lifestyles and Custom Audience purchases represented the smallest share of digital activation, while Behavioral and Demographic segments were more popular with advertisers.
When the U.S. rolled out the COVID-19 vaccine, consumers became more active. People were shopping in stores, returning to the gym, and taking trips that they had postponed during the height of the pandemic. Marketers turned to higher compositions of Demographic and Modeled Lifestyles to reach these audiences between April and December of 2021.
Sustained growth in Demographic audience activation could suggest a move back to tried and true audience strategies as signals continue to decline and amid evolving regulation. With economic uncertainty, marketers return to what they know. Traditional targeting methods like Demographics and Modeled Lifestyles are the baseline of many marketing strategies and we predict that we will continue to see marketers activating against these data sets.
Download our 2023 digital audience trends and predictions report to discover our full insights on how digital activation has changed and where we’re headed.
Identity: Understand the customer journey
Identity resolution is the next ingredient that you should add to your marketing mix in a recession. It should be a foundational element of every marketer’s strategy.
What is identity resolution? In the simplest terms, identity resolution is the process of matching different devices, IDs, and touchpoints back to a single person. Identity resolution expands marketers’ addressability and reach of their target audience and helps inform and measure accurate customer journeys.
Identity resolution challenges
Identity resolution faces two main challenges:
- Making the data actionable. Humans are complex. We have behaviors that change based on our current social groups and life events, we use dozens of internet-connected devices in a single day, and we exhibit distinct behaviors that happen online and in the physical world. This means marketers have mounds of data being collected from different channels based on that dynamic behavior of people, making it feel impossible to organize the data in a way that makes it feel actionable, know how it ties back to real humans, and ensure they’re doing it in a responsible and compliant way.
- Signal loss. Marketers continue to lose important signals that they’ve previously been able to rely on to inform their next move. Signals are being lost as our industry places more privacy regulations and restrictions on what can be tracked and as consumers themselves change behaviors to protect their privacy.
As consumer behaviors continue to change and signals disappear, identity resolution gets exponentially harder.
Expand addressability and reach with identity resolution
Data deprecation adversely affects identity solutions, but identity resolution should be a key ingredient in your marketing mix. Identity resolution ensures that consumers experience more relevant products, offers, and messaging – allowing you to reap the ROI benefits of hitting consumers at the perfect point in their journey.
Finding an identity resolution partner
When selecting an identity resolution partner, you should understand the data and processes that are implemented behind the scenes. It’s important to know:
- What makes up their consumer database?
- How fresh is their data?
- What identifiers can they match?
- How do they protect consumer privacy?
At Experian, we’re rooted in deterministic offline data which creates a stable foundation. We then layer in digital and behavioral touchpoints. We have decades of experience managing consumer data safely. We have insights on 250 million individuals, three billion devices, and one trillion device signals. Our databases evolve as quickly as the human behavior powering them does.
Our approach to identity resolution is open and agnostic. This means we can collect and ingest nearly all available offline and online identifiers. We can do this in all types of environments, including connected TV (CTV), mobile, and cookieless. We have two types of identity resolution:
- Offline
- Digital
This ensures we control how known and anonymous data points are connected for consumer privacy purposes.
Identity resolution in action
Our depth of data gives our clients access to see the whole human and gain the context around singular data points.
Let’s walk through an example of our identity resolution capabilities.
Challenge
Our TV media platform client needed to measure the effectiveness of an ad campaign they were running on behalf of a leading consumer electronics brand. The TV platform wanted to be able to accurately report on which consumers made a purchase after seeing the brand’s TV commercial on their platforms.
Solution
Using our digital identity resolution services, our client could capture online purchases made on the brand’s website and link them back to a consumer profile. In addition to online transactions, our client used our offline resolution services to resolve email addresses of consumers that purchased offline, using warranty registration details.
With online and offline purchase data now resolved back to an individual ID, we also performed identity resolution on viewers in their TV subscriber files that had also been exposed to the TV commercial. This allowed us to identify subscribers that had both seen the ad and purchased a product.
We provided our client with a packaged report that they could white-label and pass along to the brand.
Results
By providing this attribution reporting to the brand, the TV platform could validate the ROI spent on their platform. The brand was extremely satisfied with the results, and they transitioned the one-off TV commercial into an ongoing campaign and purchased quarterly measurement. This led to solid recurring revenue for the TV platform.
Activation: Experiment and measure the impact
The third and final ingredient to finding the right marketing mix in a recession is activation. Experimentation is the best way to determine which channels work best for your business and provide the most ROI.
Demand-side platforms (DSP), video platforms, and sell-side targeting are three important activation channels that you should consider experimenting with.
Demand-side platforms
We continue to see increased demand for environments where alternative identifiers are being transacted (like DSPs and video). Social channels are decreasing; this can be attributed to changes in privacy, security, and concerns around brand safety.
Amazon’s DSP is catching up with Google and Meta to become a top ad platform.
Video platforms
Digital video and other video channels like over-the-top (OTT) and CTV will continue to grow. Digital video will capture the most ad spend in 2023 (22.4% in 2023 vs 19.3% in 2022). Because of this, advertisers are placing bigger bets on the combination of addressable and CTV.
Sell-side targeting
Data sharing relationships will become strongest on the sell-side as we move toward consented first-party data. Ad dollars are shifting to channels that use the sell-side approach, like retail media and CTV.
Sell-side targeting enables brands to access large amounts of inventory across publishers and retailers. By getting closer to the ad inventory, advertisers can future-proof their strategies by having more access to better data signals. Direct relationships like these will be necessary as privacy regulations increase and signal loss continues.
We can help you find the right marketing mix in a recession
Now is the time to be opportunistic. Gaining share of voice during a downturn is cost-effective. Proactive marketing builds pent-up demand.
Delivering the right message in the right place at the right time means truly knowing your prospects and customers as individuals. At Experian, we bring you the highest-resolution picture of people, so you and your customers can connect with confidence.
You can turn prospects into customers with the right audience. By understanding your customers better, you can find more like them. Together we can power better results.
Find the right marketing mix
Check out our webinar, “Find the right marketing mix with rising consumer expectations.” Guest speaker, Nikhil Lai, Senior Analyst from Forrester Research, joined Experian experts Erin Haselkorn and Eden Wilbur. Watch the recording to learn:
- New data on the complexity and uncertainty facing marketers
- Consumer trends for 2023
- Recommendations on finding the right channel mix and the right consumers
Sources
- 2022 Retail Media Ad Sales Forecast, US. Forrester Research, Inc. 2022.
- Forrester Analytics Consumer Technographics® Technology, Media, and Telecom Topic Insights 1 Survey. Forrester Research, Inc. 2020.
- CMO Pulse Survey. Forrester Research, Inc. July 2021.
- Forrester’s Consumer Energy And Retail Online Survey. Forrester Research, Inc.
- People-Led Planning Solves Customer Problems to Drive Growth. Forrester Research, Inc. August 2, 2021.
Latest posts
Q&A with John Fetto, Senior Analyst, Marketing & Research Earlier this year, Experian Marketing Services released our Cross-Device Video Analysis. The analysis has generated such strong and sustained interest from marketers and the media, we wanted to explore the subject further. The following is an exchange with the report’s lead author John Fetto who answers some common questions that we’ve received since the analysis was published. Q: In the Cross-Device Video Analysis, you report that consumers are “cutting the cord” on pay cable and satellite television services. Can you elaborate on this trend? What’s driving it? According to our research at Experian Marketing Services, U.S. consumers are increasingly likely to have high speed Internet at home but no cable or satellite TV subscription. There are two primary consumer trends driving this: 1) Households that never subscribed to a pay TV service are now upgrading to broadband Internet; 2) Households that previously subscribed to both pay TV service and broadband Internet that have since cancelled the cable or satellite TV subscription. While the vast majority of U.S. households pay for either cable or satellite TV, an estimated 15.1 million (or 12.9 percent of households) do not. That’s up from 13.5 million households (11.9 percent) who didn’t pay for TV in 2009. At the same time, the share of broadband households is also rising. Today, 72.7 million homes (61.4 percent) have broadband Internet, up from 65.0 million homes (56.9 percent) in 2009. As Americans’ Internet connection at home is increasingly fast enough to deliver high quality video content through sites like YouTube, Netflix, Hulu and the like, as well as the ability to consume that online video content across an array of devices ranging from Internet-connected televisions to smartphones and tablets to computers, they are increasingly questioning whether they need to continue paying for TV. And more and more consumers are deciding to cut the cord. Q: With more consumers cutting the cord, how are they consuming video content? While the most commonly used device to consume online video is the smartphone — used by 24 percent of adults during a typical week to watch online video, according to our research — “cord cutters” are primarily using Internet-connected TV to consume online video. In fact, an adult who watches online video on their TV is 3.2 times more likely than the average adult to be a cord-cutter. This means that the Internet-connected TV market is critical in predicting the future of the cord-cutting consumer. As existing devices like Apple TV, Chromecast and Roku are upgraded and new devices like Amazon Fire TV are introduced to the market, consumers will have more and more options to consume online video without sacrificing quality or screen size. As a result, more consumers will be reconsidering whether they need to continue paying for TV. Q: What percent of consumers get their television programming from various sources including cable, satellite, online streaming and free over the air TV? Combined, 87.1 percent of U.S. households subscribe to either cable or satellite TV. While Experian Marketing Services doesn’t specifically measure the percent of Americans who watch TV through an over the air feed (OTA) we know that among those who do not subscribe to cable or satellite, the vast majority (77 percent) still watch TV. And while it’s possible that some are viewing TV from a cable or satellite feed away from home, the most likely source of their TV content would be from OTA sources. That means that at least 10 percent of American adults are watching some TV through an OTA feed. In addition, 48 percent of all adults watch online video each week through a variety of devices. Those who don’t pay for TV are 12 percent more likely than those who have cable or satellite TV to watch online video (54 percent vs 48 percent). Q: The cord-cutting trend has many implications for the cable and satellite companies, but what do consumer-facing marketers and advertisers need to know about this trend? The growth in online video viewing creates many opportunities for marketers. Online audiences can be more easily targeted and served up advertising that is more relevant, responsive and measureable. Marketers can also be more confident that their online ad was actually seen, given that viewers are typically unable to skip ads. And while CPMs for online video ads may generally be lower than those of TV, marketers can use that savings to negotiate costs based on clicks or transactions rather than impressions, giving them a better picture into audience interest and insights to inform their budget allocation. Millennials are the most device “agnostic,” with more than one-third saying they don’t mind watching video on a portable device even if it means a smaller screen. That’s more than double the rate of those ages 35 and older. This decentralized viewing can create headaches for marketers who need to start a relationship with Millennials during this stage of their lives when they’re most open to trying out new brands and have yet to settle down. On the plus side, marketers who do manage to reach this audience will find them much more open to advertising than average. In fact, Millennials are more than four times more likely to say that video ads that they view on their cell phone are useful. So while the challenge is big, so is the potential reward. Download the full analysis to learn more about: Cross-device video behaviors to optimize media mix approach The impact of the growing trend in cord-cutters The rising influence of Internet-connected TV How to get more impact from video content
School may be out for the summer, but this is the perfect time for marketers to begin back-to-school planning. Follow these five simple tips and be on your way to back-to-school success. Searchers are actively seeking out ideas around clothes, hairstyles and dorm room décor as they prepare for the school year to start. Leverage sites like Pinterest to promote back to school merchandise and content. Don’t forget to include DIY and customization options as these appeal to today’s students. Don’t underestimate the influence of moms and college students. These consumers are more likely to actively search for the best deals online so test using deal-seeking terms like “free” and “sales” in promotional campaigns. In 2013, Marketers experienced a 35 percent lift in unique clicks when they used the word ‘college’ in the subject line. This year, try targeting specific ages for back-to-school by including terms like “college” and kids” in the subject line. Timing of back-to-school campaigns matters. While August is the key month for back-to-school campaigns, there may be more opportunity to mail additional campaigns for school supplies in July, and clothing and accessories in early September. Don’t forget to personalize! Last year, we saw a 44 percent increase in unique open rates for emails that contained personalization in the subject line. These tactics should be included in a strong back-to-school mailing program. For more information on back-to-school planning, download the 5 Lessons for Back-to-school Marketers in 2014 report.
Experian Marketing Services conducted an analysis into the attitudes, language preferences, spending habits and media behaviors of Hispanic Consumers, some of which were featured in the 2014 Hispanic Market Overview presented by López Negrete Communications. This post highlights findings from that analysis, which focus on Hispanic consumers’ adoption and use of smartphones. Hispanic consumers, who today account for 15 percent of the total U.S. adult population and 22 percent of Millennials, represent an ideal audience for mobile engagement and mobile advertising. While cell phone ownership rates among Hispanic and non-Hispanic adults are equal, Hispanics are more likely to own a smartphone and use it as their primary device to connect to the Internet. According to the latest estimates from Experian Marketing Services, 63 percent of Hispanic adults own a smartphone versus 60 percent of non-Hispanics. That’s up from 52 percent and 51 percent, respectively, since 2012. Among smartphone owners, Hispanics are 17 percent more likely than non-Hispanics to say that they access the Internet more through their phone than through a computer. In fact, 45 percent of Hispanic smartphone owners are mobile-dominant when it comes to going online compared with 38 percent of non-Hispanics. Marketers courting the influential Hispanic consumer must consider this fact and take a mobile-first approach to ensure that online marketing efforts, including everything from email to websites to e-commerce, are designed to engage the customer as effectively on a mobile device as on a computer. Even traditional marketing tactics such as television ads should reflect the growing likelihood that Hispanics have a smartphone either nearby or physically in their hand and are ready to engage. In fact, 37 percent of all Hispanic adults say that they often use their cell phone while watching television compared with 29 percent of non-Hispanics. Among smartphone owners, the share of Hispanics who use their phone while watching television shoots up to 50 percent versus 42 percent of non-Hispanics. Millennial smartphone owners are among the most likely to be splitting their attention between the big and small screen with 61 percent of Hispanic Millennials and 58 percent of non-Hispanic Millennials doing so. Knowing what specific mobile activities Hispanics are engaging in is critical for marketers in identifying the best tactics for reaching them via mobile. The chart below shows that Hispanics engage in most smartphone activities at above average rates, but they are much more likely than non-Hispanics to IM/chat on their phone. As a result they are slightly less likely than non-Hispanics to email from their phone, though the vast majority of Hispanic smartphone owners still use mobile email. Other activities that marketers will find Hispanics engaging in at above average rates include watching videos, using mobile GPS and listening to music. Learn more about how Experian Marketing Services can help your organization more effectively target, reach and engage today’s Hispanic consumer.