Credit Lending
Part 2: Common myths about credit risk scores and how to educate consumers In light of what I've heard in the marketplace through the years, I wanted to provide some information to help 'debunk' some common myths about credit scores. Myth: There is only one credit score Reality: There are multiple credit scores that lenders can use to evaluate consumer credit worthiness. As noted in a recent New York Times article, there are 49 FICO score models. Make sure your customers know that an underwriting decision is based on more than just a credit score—multiple factors are evaluated to make a lending decision. The most important thing a consumer can do is ensure their credit report is accurate. Myth: The probability of default remains constant for a credit score over time Reality: The probability of default can shift dramatically based on macro-economic conditions. In 2005, a score of 700 in any given model, may have had a probability of default of 2 percent, while in 2009, the same score could have had a probability of default of 8 percent. This underscores the value of conducting an annual validation of the credit model you are using to ensure your institution is making the most accurate lending decisions based on your risk tolerance. One of the benefits of utilizing the VantageScore model, is that VantageScore Solutions, LLC, produces an annual validation so you can ensure your institution is adjusting your strategies to meet changing economic conditions. Myth: If the underlying credit report is the same at each credit reporting company, I will have the same score at each company Reality: Traditional credit scoring models are completely different at each credit reporting company, which leads to vastly different scores or probabilities of default based on the same information. As a risk manager, this is very frustrating, as I may not understand which score most accurately assess the consumer’s probability of default. The only model that is the same across all credit reporting agencies is the VantageScore model, where this is a patented feature that ensures the lender receives a consistent score (probability of default) across all bureau platforms. I hope these brief examples help clear up some confusion about credit scores. In Part 3 of this series, I will outline how to evaluate the risk of traditionally unscoreable consumers. If you have any thoughts or experiences from a lending perspective, please feel free to share them below. Courtesy Why You Have 49 Different FICO Scores in the August 27, 2012 issue of the New York Times
By: Kyle Aiman Let’s face it, debt collectors often get a bad rap. Sure, some of it is deserved, but the majority of the nation’s estimated 157,000 collectors strive to do their job in a way that will satisfy both their employer and the debtor. One way to improve collector/debtor interaction is for the collector to be trained in consumer credit and counseling. In a recent article published on Collectionsandcreditrisk.com, Trevor Carone, Vice President of Portfolio and Collection Solutions at Experian, explored the concept of using credit education to help debt collectors function more like advisors instead of accusers. If collectors gain a better understanding of consumer credit – how to read a credit report, how items may affect a credit score, how a credit score is compiled and what factors influence the score – perhaps they can offer suggestions for improvement. Will providing past-due consumers with a plan to help improve their credit increase payments? Read the article and let us know what you think!
By: Mike Horrocks It has been over a year that in Zuccotti Park the Occupy Wall Street crowd made their voices heard. At the anniversary point of that movement, there has been a lot of debate on if the protest has fizzled away or is still alive and planning its next step. Either way, it cannot be ignored that it did raise a voice in how consumers view their financial institutions and what actions they are willing to take i.e. “Bank Transfer Day”. In today’s market customer risk management must be balanced with retention strategies. For example, here at Experian we value the voice of our clients and prospects and I personally lead our win/loss analysis efforts. The feedback we get from our customers is priceless. In a recent American Banker article, some great examples were given on how tuning into the voice of the consumer can turn into new business and an expanded market footprint. Some consumers however will do their talking by looking at other financial institutions or by slowly (or maybe rapidly) using your institution’s services less and less. Technology Credit Union saw great results when they utilized retention triggers off of the credit data to get back out in front of their members with meaningful offers. Maximizing the impact of internal data and spotting the customer-focused trends that can help with retention is even a better approach, since that data is taken at the “account on-us” level and can help stop risks before the customer starts to walk out the door. Phillip Knight, the founder of Nike once said, “My job is to listen to ideas”. Your customers have some of the best ideas on how they can be retained and not lost to the competitors. So, think how you can listen to the voice and the actions of your customers better, before they leave and take a walk in the park.
By: Teri Tassara Negative liquidity, or owing more on your home than its value, has become a much too common theme in the past few years. According to CoreLogic, 11 million consumers are underwater, representing 1 out of 4 homeowners in the nation. The irony is with mortgage rates remaining at historic lows, consumers who can benefit the most from refinancing can’t qualify due to their negative liquidity situation. Mortgage Banker’s Association recently reported that approximately 74% of home loan volumes were mortgage re-finances in 2Q 2012. Consumers who have been able to refinance to take advantage of the low interest rates already have, some even several times over. But there is a segment of underwater consumers who are paying more than their scheduled amount in order to qualify for refinancing – which translates to growth opportunity in mortgage loan volume. Based on an Experian analysis of actual payment amount on mortgages, actual payment amount was reported on about 65% of open mortgages (actual payment amount is the amount the consumer paid the prior month). And when the actual payment is reported, the study found that 82% of the consumers pay within their $100 of scheduled payment and 18% pay more than their scheduled amount. Actual payment amount information as reported on the credit file, used in combination with other analytics, can be a powerful tool to identify viable candidates for a mortgage refinance, versus those who may benefit from a loan modification offer. Consumers methodically paying more than the scheduled payment amount may indicate that the consumer is trying to qualify for refinancing. Conversely, if the consumer is not able to pay the scheduled payment about, that consumer may be an ideal candidate for a loan modification program. Either way, actual payment amount can provide insight that can create a favorable situation for both the consumer and the lender, mitigating additional and unnecessary risk while providing growth opportunity. Find other related blog posts on credit and housing market trends.
What does the mortgage interest rate, currently at an all time low of 3.55% (for 30 yr. fixed), mean for financial institutions? According to the latest Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report, 75% of the mortgage originations are refinancing vs. purchasing loans. As mortgage rates decrease, financial institutions face losing mortgage loans to other lenders in the refinance climate. Consumers are looking to save money and mortgage payments are generally the largest monthly expense. Economic indicators, such as decreasing credit card and mortgage delinquency rates, reveal that consumers are more watchful of their spending and more closely managing their debt. Overall consumer debt has come down 11% from the peak in 2008, with a majority coming from the lowest VantageScore® model credit populations. Consumer confidence continues to drop, indicating consumer pessimism due to increasing gas prices and declining job growth. Given the mixed trends in the economic landscape, we can conclude that some consumers are still doubtful on economic recovery and will seek ways to save more and pay down their debt. Consumers with existing mortgages will most likely take advantage of the lower mortgage rates and refinance. So how can financial institutions help prevent attrition? With the current economic situation, managing retention efforts on a daily basis is imperative to retaining consumers. By monitoring their portfolio and receiving information daily, financial institutions are quickly informed if an existing mortgage client is shopping for a new mortgage with another lender, enabling them to act swiftly to retain the business. Information obtained from daily monitoring of accounts helps financial institutions speak with customers more intelligently about their needs. Because of this competitive environment, and often irrelevance of brand loyalty, financial institutions need to build relationships and increase customer loyalty by quickly meeting the financial needs of their most profitable customers. To demonstrate how taking daily actions can help boost loyalty, reduce attrition, and increase profitability, the Technology Credit Union recently revealed how they obtained a 788% ROI. Access the case study here. What efforts has your institution taken to reduce attrition over the past year? VantageScore is a registered trademark of VantageScore Solutions, LLC.
By: Uzma Aziz They say, “a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush” …and the same can be said about customers in a portfolio. Studies have shown time and again that the cost of acquiring a new financial services customer is many times higher than the cost of keeping an existing one. Retention has always been an integral part of portfolio management, and with the market finally on an upward trajectory, there is all the more need to hold on to profitable customers. Experts at CEB TowerGroup are forecasting a combined annual growth rate of over 12% for new credit cards alone through 2015. Combine that with a growing market with better-informed and savvy customers, and you have a very good reason to be diligent about retaining your best ones. Also, different sized institutions have varying degrees of success. According to a study by J.D. Power & Associates, in 2011 overall, 9.6% of customers indicated they switched their primary bank account during the past year, up from 8.7% a year ago. Smaller banks and credit unions did see drastically lower attrition than they did in prior years: just 0.9% on average, down from 8.8% a year earlier. For large, mid-sized and regional banks unfortunately, it was a different story with attrition rates at 10 to 11.3%. It gets even more complex when you drill down to a specific type of financial product such as a credit card. Experian’s own analysis of credit card customer retention shows that while the majority of customers are loyal, a good percentage attrite actively—that is, close their accounts and open new ones—while a bigger percent are silent attriters, those that do not close accounts but pay down balances and move their spend to others. Obviously, attrition is a continual topic that needs to be addressed, but to minimize it you first need to understand the root cause. Poor service seems to be the leading factor and one study* showed that 31% of consumers who switched banks did so because of poor service, followed by product features and finding a better offer elsewhere. So what are financial institutions doing to retain their profitable customers? There are lots of tools ranging from easy to more complex e.g., fee and interest waiver, line increases, rewards, and call center priority to name a few. But the key to successful customer retention is to look within the portfolio combining both internal and external information. This encompasses both proactive and reactive strategies. Proactive strategies include identifying customer behaviors which lead to balance or account attrition and taking action before a customer does. This includes monitoring changes over time and identifying thresholds for action as well as segmentation and modeling to identify problem. Reactive strategies, as the name suggests, is reacting to when a customer has already taken action which will lead to attrition; these include monitoring portfolios for new inquiries and account openings or response to customer complaints. In some cases, this maybe too little too late, but in others reactive response may be what saves a customer relationship. Whichever strategy or combination of these you choose, the key points to remember to retain customers and keep them happy are: Understand your current customers’ perceptions about credit, as they many have changed—customers are likely to be more educated, and the most profitable ones expect only the best customer service experience Be approachable and personal – meet customer needs—or better yet, anticipate those needs, focusing on loyalty and customer experience You don’t need to “give away the farm” – sometimes a partial fee waiver works * Global Consumer Banking Survey 2011, by Ernst & Young
By: Ken Pruett The great thing about being in front of customers is that you learn something from every meeting. Over the years I have figured out that there is typically no “right” or “wrong” way to do something. Even in the world of fraud and compliance I find that each client\'s approach varies greatly. It typically comes down to what the business need is in combination with meeting some sort of compliance obligation like the Red Flag Rules or the Patriot Act. For example, the trend we see in the prepaid space is that basic verification of common identity elements is really the only need. The one exception might be the use of a few key fraud indicators like a deceased SSN. The thought process here is that the fraud risk is relatively low vs. someone opening up a credit card account. So in this space, pass rates drive the business objective of getting customers through the application process as quickly and easily as possible….while meeting basic compliance obligations. In the world of credit, fraud prevention is front and center and plays a key role in the application process. Our most conservative customers often use the traditional bureau alerts to drive fraud prevention. This typically creates high manual review rates but they feel that they want to be very customer focused. Therefore, they are willing to take on the costs of these reviews to maintain that focus. The feedback we often get is that these alerts often lead to a high number of false positives. Examples of messages they may key off of are things like the SSN not being issued or the On-File Inquiry address not matching. The trend is this space is typically focused on fraud scoring. Review rates are what drive score cut-offs leading to review rates that are typically 5% or less. Compliance issues are often resolved by using some combination of the score and data matching. For example, if there is a name and address mismatch that does not necessarily mean the application will kick out for review. If the Name, SSN, and DOB match…and the score shows very little chance of fraud, the application can be passed through in an automated fashion. This risk based approach is typically what we feel is a best practice. This moves them away from looking at the binary results from individual messages like the SSN alerts mentioned above. The bottom line is that everyone seems to do things differently, but the key is that each company takes compliance and fraud prevention seriously. That is why meeting with our customers is such an enjoyable part of my job.
Join us Sept 12-13 in New York City for the Finovate conference to check out the best new innovations in financial and banking technology from a mixture of leading established companies and startups. As part of Finovate\'s signature demo-only format for this event, Steve Wagner, President, Consumer Information Services and Michele Pearson, Vice President of Marketing, Consumer Information Services, from Experian will demonstrate how providers and lead generators can access a powerful new marketing tool to: Drive new traffic Lower online customer acquisition costs Generate high-quality, credit-qualified leads Proactively utilize individual consumer credit data online in real time Networking sessions will follow company demos each day, giving attendees the chance to speak directly with the Experian innovators they saw on stage. Finovate 2011 had more than 1,000 financial institution executives, venture capitalists, members of the press and entrepreneurs in attendance, and they expecting an even larger audience at the 2012 event. We look forward to seeing you at Finovate!
In this three-part series, Everything you wanted to know about credit risk scores, but were afraid to ask, I will provide a high level overview of: What a credit risk score predicts; Common myths about credit risk scores and how to educate consumers; and finally, Scoring traditionally un-scoreable consumers Part I: So what exactly does a credit risk score predict? A credit risk score predicts the probability that a consumer will become 90 days past due or greater on any given account over the next 24 months. A three digit risk score relates to probability; or in some circles, probability of default. An example of the probability of default: For a consumer who has a VantageScore credit score of 900, there is a 0.21% chance they will have a 90 day or greater past due occurrence in the next 24 months or odds of 2 out of 1,000 consumers A consumer with a VantageScore credit score of 560 will have a 35% chance they will have a 90 day or greater past due occurrence in the next 24 months or odds of 350 out of 1,000 consumers This concept comes to life in light of changes being made on the regulatory front from the FDIC in the new proposed large bank pricing rule, which will change the way large lenders define and calculate risk for their FDIC Deposit Insurance Assessment. One of the key changes is that the traditional three-digit credit score used to set its risk threshold will be replaced with “probability of default” (PD) metric. Based on the proposed rule, the new definition for a higher risk loan is one that has a 20% or higher probability of defaulting in two years. The new rule has a number of wide-ranging implications. It will impact a lender’s FDIC assessment and will allow them to uniformly and easily assess risk regardless of their use of proprietary or generic credit risk scoring modes. In part 2, I will dispel some common consumer myths about credit scores and how lenders can provide credit education to their customers.
By: Mike Horrocks In 1950 Alice Stewart, a British medical professor, embarked on a study to identify what was causing so many cases of cancer in children. Her broad study covered many aspects of the lives of both child and mother, and the final result was that a large spike in the number of children struck with cancer came from mothers that were x-rayed during pregnancy. The data was clear and statistically beyond reproach and yet for nearly 25 more years, the practice of using x-rays during pregnancy continued. Why didn\'t doctors stop using x-rays? They clearly thought the benefits outweighed the risk and they also had a hard time accepting Dr. Stewart’s study. So how, did Dr. Stewart gain more acceptance of the study – she had a colleague, George Kneale, whose sole job was to disprove her study. Only by challenging her theories, could she gain the confidence to prove them right. I believe that theory of challenging the outcome carries over to the practice of risk management as well, as we look to avoid or exploit the next risk around the corner. So how can we as risk managers find the next trends in risk management? I don’t pretend to have all the answers, but here are some great ideas. Analyze your analysis. Are you drawing conclusions off of what would be obvious data sources or a rather simplified hypothesis? If you are, you can bet your competitors are too. Look for data, tools and trends that can enrich your analysis. In a recent discussion with a lending institution that has a relationship with a logistics firm, they said that the insights they get from the logistical experts has been spot-on in terms of regional business indicators and lending risks. Stop thinking about the next 90 days and start thinking about the next 9 quarters. Don’t get me wrong, the next 90 days are vital, but what is coming in the next 2+ years is critical. Expand the discussion around risk with a holistic risk team. Seek out people with different backgrounds, different ways of thinking and different experiences as a part of your risk management team. The broader the coverage of disciplines the more likely opportunities will be uncovered. Taking these steps may introduce some interesting discussions, even to the point of conflict in some meetings. However, when we look back at Dr. Stewart and Mr. Kneale, their conflicts brought great results and allowed for some of the best thinking at the time. So go ahead, open yourself and your organization to a little conflict and let’s discover the best thinking in risk management.
By: Teri Tassara The intense focus and competition among lenders for the super prime and prime prospect population has become saturated, requiring lenders to look outside of their safety net for profitable growth. This leads to the question “Where are the growth opportunities in a post-recession world?” Interestingly, the most active and positive movement in consumer credit is in what we are terming “emerging prime” consumers, represented by a VantageScore® of 701-800, or letter grade “C”. We’ve seen that of those consumers classified as VantageScore C in 3Q 2006, 32% had migrated to a VantageScore B and another 4% to an A grade over a 5-year window of time. And as more of the emerging prime consumers rebuild credit and recover from the economic downturn, demand for credit is increasing once again. Case in point, the auto lending industry to the “subprime” population is expected to increase the most, fueled by consumer demand. Lenders striving for market advantage are looking to find the next sweet spot, and ahead of the competition. Fortunately, lenders can apply sophisticated and advanced analytical methods to confidently segment the emerging prime consumers into the appropriate risk classification and predict their responsiveness for a variety of consumer loans. Here are some recommended steps to identifying consumers most likely to add significant value to a lender’s portfolio: Identify emerging prime consumers Understand how prospects are using credit Apply the most predictive credit attributes and scores for risk assessment Understand responsiveness level The stops and starts that have shaped this recovery have contributed to years of slow growth and increased competition for the same “super prime” consumers. However, these post-recession market conditions are gradually paving the way to opportunistic profitable growth. With advanced science, lenders can pair caution with a profitable growth strategy, applying greater rigor and discipline in their decision-making.
Last week, a group of us came together for a formal internal forum where we had the opportunity to compare notes with colleagues, hear updates on the challenges clients are facing and brainstorm solutions to client business problems across the discipline areas of analytics, fraud and software. As usual, fraud prevention and fraud analytics were key areas of discussion but what was also notable was how big a role compliance is playing as a business driver. First party fraud and identity theft detection are important components, sure, but as the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) gains momentum and more teeth, the demand for compliance accommodation and consistency grows critical as well. The role of good fraud management is to help accomplish regulatory compliance by providing more than just fraud risk scores, it can help to: Know Your Customer (KYC) or Customer Information Program (CIP) details such as the match results and level of matching across name, address, SSN, date of birth, phone, and Driver’s License. Understand the results of checks for high risk identity conditions such as deceased SSN, SSN more frequently used by another, address mismatches, and more. Perform a check against the Office of Foreign Asset Control’s SDN list and the details of any matches. And while some fraud solutions out there make use of these types of comparisons when generating a score or decision, they may not pass these along to their customers. And just think how valuable these details can be for both consistent compliance decisions and creating an audit trail for any possible audits.
The Fed’s Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) and Capital Plan Review (CapPR) stress scenarios depict a severe recession that, although unlikely, the largest U.S. banks must now account for in their capital planning process. The bank holding companies’ ability to maintain adequate capital reserves, while managing the risk levels of growing portfolios are key to staying within the stress test parameters and meeting liquidity requirements. While each banks’ portfolios will perform differently, as a whole, the delinquency performance of major products such as Auto, Bankcard and Mortgage continues to perform well. Here is a comparison between the latest quarter results and two years ago from the Experian – Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports. Although not a clear indication of how well a bank will perform against the hypothetical scenario of the stress tests, measures such as Probability of Default, Loss Given Default and Exposure at Default to indicate a bank’s risk may be dramatically improved from just a few years ago given recent delinquency trends in core portfolios. Recently we released a white paper that provides an introduction to Basel III regulation and discusses some of its impact on banks and the banking system. We also present a real business case showing how organizations turn these regulatory challenges into buisness opportunities by optimizing their credit strategies. Download the paper - Creating value in challenging times: An innovative approach to Basel III compliance.
The CFPB, the FTC and other regulatory authorities have been building up their presence in debt collections. Are you in the line of fire, or are you already prepared to effectively manage your riskiest accounts? This year’s collections headlines show an increased need to manage account risk. Consumers have been filing suits for improper collections under the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act (FDCPA), the Servicemembers Civil Relief Act (SCRA), and the Telephone Consumer Protection Act (TCPA), to name a few. Agencies have already paid millions in fines due to increased agency scrutiny. One collections mistake could cost thousands or even millions to your business—a cost any collector would hate to face. So, what can you do about better managing your regulatory risk? 1. First of all, it is always important to understand and follow the collection regulations associated with your accounts. 2. Secondly, follow the headlines and pay close attention to your regulatory authorities. 3. Lastly, leverage data filtering tools to identify accounts in a protected status. The best solution to help you is a streamlined tool that includes filters to identify multiple types of regulatory risk in one place. At minimum, you should be able to identify the following types of risk associated with your accounts: Bankruptcy status and details Deceased indicator and dates Military indicator Cell phone type indicator Fraud indicators Litigious consumers Why wait? Start identifying and mitigating your risk as early in your collections efforts as possible.
Contributed by: David Daukus As the economy is starting to finally turn around albeit with hiccups and demand for new credit picking up, creditors are loosening their lending criteria to grab market share. However, it is important for lenders to keep lessons from the past to avoid the same mistakes. With multiple government agencies such as the CFPB, OCC, FDIC and NCUA and new regulations, banking compliance is more complex than ever. That said, there are certain foundational elements, which hold true. One such important aspect is keeping a consistent and well-balanced risk management approach. Another key aspect is around concentration risk. This is where a significant amount of risk is focused in certain portfolios across specific regions, risk tiers, etc. (Think back to 2007/2008 where some financial institutions focused on making stated-income mortgages and other riskier loans.) In 2011, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors released a study outlining the key reasons for bank failures. This review focused mainly on 20 bank failures from June 29, 2009 thru June 30, 2011 where more in-depth reporting and analysis had been completed after each failure. According to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, here are the four key reasons for the failed banks: (1) Management pursuing robust growth objectives and making strategic choices that proved to be poor decisions; (2) Rapid loan portfolio growth exceeding the bank’s risk management capabilities and/or internal controls; (3) Asset concentrations tied to commercial real estate or construction, land, and land development (CLD) loans; (4) Management failing to have sufficient capital to cushion mounting losses. So, what should be done? Besides adherence to new regulations, which have been sprouting up to save us all from another financial catastrophe, diversification of risk maybe the name of the game. The right mix of the following is needed for a successful risk management approach including the following steps: Analyze portfolios and needs Predict high risk accounts Create comprehensive credit policies Decision for risk and retention Refresh scores/attributes and policies So, now is a great time to renew your focus. Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors: Summary Analysis of Failed Bank Reviews (9/2011)
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