In this article…
It’s hard to believe, but it’s almost time again for marketers to begin their holiday campaign preparations. Leading up to these preparations, it’s important to reflect on consumer trends from Black Friday 2023 and derive insights for the coming year to shape successful marketing strategies.
Spending trends we saw in 2023
In 2023, consumer holiday spending was forecasted to rise at the slowest pace in five years due to inflation and cost of living concerns. Forrester reported that consumers weren’t spending less, but they were spending slower and paying less for what they bought to stretch their dollar further.
Despite slower spending, data showed a 7.5% increase in e-commerce sales from 2022 to 2023, with a record $9.8 billion spent online and the most substantial growth of in-store traffic in recent years, up 4.6% from the previous year. Shopify even reported record 2023 Black Friday sales numbers offline and offline, reaching $4.1 billion, with significant spending across personal care, clothing, jewelry, shoes, and decor. Around 75% of these sales occurred on mobile and 25% on desktop.
When people shopped in 2023
We also saw notable shifts in how, when, and where people shopped on Black Friday. One significant trend noted in our 2023 Holiday spending report was the increasing preference for early holiday shopping, particularly online. Consumers quickly responded to early discounts and promotions, which caused a surge in spending during October. Cyber Week, encompassing Black Friday through Cyber Monday, also played a significant role, accounting for 8% of total consumer holiday spending.
2023 trends we expect to see in 2024
As you gear up for the holiday season, understanding Black Friday trends from 2023 will be vital, as Black Friday 2024 is expected to see a continuation of several key trends alongside emerging ones:
- Mobile shopping will continue its growth trajectory.
- Consumers will keep seeking early deals.
- Marketers will prepare promotions sooner than ever.
- Flexible payment arrangements like “buy now/pay later” (BNPL) will drive conversions amid continued inflation.
- Channel switching will become more common.
- Paid search will drive the most sales.
Let’s talk about what past trends and future predictions mean for your marketing strategy and how you can use them to inform your 2024 holiday campaigns.
Emerging consumer behaviors
Consumer behaviors and preferences have been changing and reshaping the Black Friday shopping landscape over the last few years. Looking ahead to Black Friday 2024, several trends from last year are likely to continue shaping the shopping experience.
Early shopping
The early holiday shopping trend will continue to become more pronounced. Many consumers now begin their end-of-year shopping well before Halloween, seeking to take advantage of early deals and discounts, enjoy more time to compare prices and products, avoid crowds, secure popular items early, and spread out their budget. In 2023, Gallup found that one in four holiday shoppers even starts as early as September. This means your business must begin planning sales and promotions earlier in the season and roll them out sooner.
The value of experiences
We’re seeing an interesting shift toward gifting experiences over physical items among consumers with more disposable income. In a 2023 survey, one in five respondents said they’d prefer to get an experience as a gift over an item. Those in higher income brackets are allocating more of their holiday budgets to experiences that create lasting memories, such as theme park passes, art classes, concert tickets, and so forth. This trend will require retailers to get creative, potentially:
- Hosting giftable in-store events
- Enhancing the in-store experience
- Using experiential marketing to make deeper consumer connections
- Partnering with other companies to provide bundled gift/experience packages
Preference for digital channels
Media consumption habits and preferred engagement channels are also undergoing significant changes. Consumers increasingly turn to digital channels like streaming TV and connected TV (CTV) for entertainment and information. CTV ad spending, in particular, is expected to grow by 20% in 2024 and by low double digits into 2027. This shift will influence how retailers reach and engage with consumers, and it underscores the importance of digital marketing strategies and personalized online experiences.
Mobile vs. desktop online spending
The preference for mobile over desktop for online transactions is growing; in 2023, mobile devices comprised 54% of online sales, with online purchases up 10.4% from 2022 on Black Friday. More and more, consumers are using mobile devices to research, browse, and buy online. Marketers need to optimize their mobile and website experience to make the shopping experience seamless across all devices.
Key products and categories
Research has shown that the most popular in-store purchases of Black Friday weekend in 2023 included clothing/accessories and electronics.
- 82% of shoppers bought clothing in-store to inspect colors, material, and fit
- 73% said they would buy electronics in store to compare quality
These categories were followed by:
- Health and beauty (49%)
- Household appliances (44%)
- Sports/leisure (32%)
Interestingly, the same categories were also the top sellers online during Cyber Week 2023, with 79% of buyers seeking clothing/accessories and 66% intending to purchase electronics. Amazon was one of the most popular shopping destinations for Cyber Week 2023, with over a billion items sold. Some of the top-selling items included the Amazon Fire TV Stick and Ring Video Doorbell. This indicates a consistent consumer preference across different shopping channels and suggests shoppers are comfortable buying a wide range of products online, even during traditional in-store shopping events.
Looking ahead, retailers can reasonably anticipate continued demand for clothing/accessories and electronics, both in-store and online.
Marketing strategies that worked
Last year was a year of growth, albeit slow growth, despite economic uncertainty. Here are some of the marketing strategies deployed that contributed to this growth.
Influencer collaborations
Data from a 2023 Black Friday report showed that seven of every 10 shoppers acknowledged an influencer’s role in their purchase decision. Partnering with influencers to promote Black Friday deals and hosting live streaming sessions with influencers showcasing products helped reach new audiences and build credibility. Influencers’ recommendations resonated strongly with their followers, which drove traffic and increased sales.
Cross-channel marketing campaigns
Black Friday gives marketers a unique opportunity to engage audiences across touchpoints. Using a mix of channels, such as social media, email, websites, SMS, in-store promotions, and print media, tends to create more impactful campaigns.
Last year proved to be diverse in terms of marketing channel mix. Marketers embraced a cross-channel approach to connect with their users during holiday sales, which was evident in the increased usage of channels like email, SMS/MMS, web push notifications, and emerging channels like Roku messages. Using multiple channels to promote Black Friday deals increased visibility and reached a wider audience. This comprehensive approach ensured marketing messages reached customers wherever they were.
To maximize sales during the Cyber Five holiday season, activate Experian audiences as part of your omnichannel campaign. Our offerings include meticulously curated behavioral segments based on discount indicators such as Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and Coupons/Sales. These segments help you target shoppers who are ready to take advantage of your promotions and are primed for early conversion. Our marketing data was ranked #1 in accuracy by Truthset, which means you can power smarter marketing initiatives, like insights, targeting, and measurement, using the highest-rated data.
App-only deals
In 2023, mobile app sales increased by 2% from 2022, generating a 12% increase in app purchases and $2 billion more in revenue than the year before. Businesses offering exclusive deals through their mobile apps incentivized customers to download and use the app for their purchases, which helped boost sales through a dedicated channel.
Limited-time offers
Time-limited offers are the essence of Black Friday and Cyber Week, giving shoppers a timeframe for getting the lowest prices of the year on certain products. Creating urgency is a highly effective way to get people to make a faster purchase decision.
Bath & Body Works is exemplary at using limited-time offers; once a year around Black Friday, they run a “Buy 3, Get 3” sale on the whole store for a single day, which encourages customers to stock up while getting their holiday shopping done.
Flash sales and hourly deals are shorter limited-time promotions that generate excitement, traffic, and sales. By highlighting specific products with steep discounts, retailers encourage customers to make instantaneous purchases. Amazon is known for these, which they refer to as Lightning Deals or product discounts available for only a few hours.
Early-bird discounts and exclusive previews
Retailers wanting to avoid overcrowded stores or website crashes can reward those who shop early with exclusive discounts or sneak peeks into Black Friday deals. This creates a feeling of urgency and privilege that leads to a purchase. Best Buy offers its Best Buy Plus and Best Buy Total members exclusive savings during a sale period just for them. They get early access to discounts toward the end of October, after which they open up their early bird deals to the public.
Predictions for Black Friday 2024
Based on what we’ve seen in 2023, we expect the following trends to shape consumer behavior on Black Friday and beyond in 2024.
Consumers will use their phones to shop more often than they already do
Mobile shopping is easy and discreet, allowing customers to shop from anywhere while staying on top of sales. Black Friday mobile orders increased from 2022 to 2023, with over 50% of all Black Friday sales occurring on smartphones. This indicates a growing trust in smartphone transactions among shoppers, which is why 2024 will likely reflect this trend.
As a marketer, this means you should ensure your website is optimized for smartphones and tablets. Ensure load speed is quick, navigation is simple, designs are intuitive, and mobile payment options are available. You also have an opportunity to invite your customers to sign up for SMS or push notifications so they can shop deals immediately after they’re rolled out.
While mobile should be a priority, we still recommend investing in multiple channels to capture online shoppers everywhere they’re buying. Our Graph can help you unify data, capture user activity, and view your target audience holistically to optimize ad spend, allocate resources effectively, and improve ROI.
Marketers will start preparing their Black Friday campaigns earlier than ever
With increasing market competition and pressure to accommodate early bird deal seekers, marketers will likely start preparing their discounts, inventories, and promotional materials earlier in the summer.
Data enrichment can help you prepare early Black Friday promos by providing deeper insights into your customers and what they want. Enriching your existing data with behavioral, financial, and demographic information can help you create precise audience segments and personalized content, anticipate customer preferences, optimize channel placement, and tailor your promotions effectively. On average, Experian has 250 behavioral and demographic marketing attributes per individual, which means we can decorate households and people with marketing data to get a full customer profile and fill in any gaps you have on your audience. You can also consider implementing sell-side targeting to help your promotions reach the right people.
If you plan to run early promotions, try not to create deal fatigue among your consumers. Focus on building a few high-quality promotions that will attract your target customers.
BNPL arrangements will become more common for conversion
Given lingering inflation in the U.S., consumers will still be looking for ways to stretch their money this year, and many shoppers may seek out BNPL arrangements. According to Deloitte, 37% of shoppers have used these services historically, and these arrangements have proven to increase conversions by up to 30%.
With so many shoppers wanting the financial convenience of making large purchases without the immediate financial burden, marketers can use data enrichment to identify their target segments most likely to use BNPL and create personalized offers and promotions for them. Your strategy should include high-value offers and messaging that appeal to budget-conscious shoppers and a checkout optimized for BNPL options.
Channel switching will surge
Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales are starting to become channel-agnostic, with consumers browsing online, on mobile apps, in physical stores, and on social media. As such, they expect a unified experience wherever they browse. Any inconsistency can disrupt the purchase journey and deter potential buyers.
As the shopping experience becomes more connected, consumers are moving between channels more frequently, which means integrating data from various touchpoints will be crucial to understanding and predicting customer behavior. Marketers must develop cohesive omnichannel strategies with consistent messaging and promotions across channels. Your campaigns should span multiple channels so customers can engage with your brand in various ways.
We work with major platforms, marketers, and agencies, which means we have existing partnerships across the ecosystem for you to connect with and bring your consumer data to life to meet your needs.
Paid search will drive the most sales
Research from Adobe shows paid search as the top sales driver of Cyber Week 2023, comprising nearly 30% of all online sales. Due to the high-intent customers captured by paid search and the surge in shopping on mobile devices, we expect to see paid search drive much of the Black Friday sales in 2024 — especially as advances in data analytics and AI allow marketers to optimize paid search campaigns more effectively. They can analyze vast amounts of data to refine keywords, ad copy, and bidding strategies for higher ROI and better targeting.
In 2024, it’s essential to prioritize paid search strategies and focus on using relevant, high-performing keywords for your campaigns. You can continuously refine your strategies using AI and data analytics to target high-intent customers. Additionally, integrating insights from customer behavior data will help you create more personalized, impactful ad copy and heighten the effectiveness of your paid search efforts.
Experian can help you win Black Friday 2024
Want your marketing campaigns to stand out and reach your audiences on Black Friday this year? Partner with Experian to create data-driven, targeted, impactful 2024 holiday campaigns.
Our data empowers you to gain valuable insights and optimize your holiday marketing strategies. We can connect online and physical transactions to our Experian household ID for a holistic view of customer behavior, connect ad exposure with foot traffic, or employ control group lift analysis to measure campaign effectiveness. By activating our purchase-based holiday audiences, like last-minute and one-stop holiday shoppers, you can reach the segments most likely to spend with you. Integrating with over 150 channels, we’ll help your campaigns reach your audience wherever they are. You can even utilize our connections to various digital platforms and partners to expand your reach.
With Experian’s measurement offerings, you can make data-driven decisions about your activation strategies. Engage the right audiences and drive exceptional results this holiday season with Experian.
Latest posts
While the weather outside is frightfully hot this summer, it’s never too soon to start thinking about the holidays – and consumers are more likely to start their holiday shopping early this year. To get you ready for the 2022 holiday shopping season, we looked back at consumer shopping trends from 2019-2021. What did we learn and what trends do we expect to see this year? Let’s look back. A look back Over the last three years, average consumer spending has increased. Record 2021 holiday sales came amidst a wave of COVID-19 cases, rising inflation, labor shortages, and supply chain problems. Despite these challenges, consumers continued to let it snow when it came to spending during the holiday season. 2022 has been a year with its own economic roadblocks – the war in Ukraine, rising gas prices, and recession concerns. Yet 2021 was a banner year for holiday sales despite its obstacles, and we predict similar trends in the 2022 holiday shopping season. What trends do we expect to see for the most wonderful time of the year? 2022 predictions While consumer spending remains strong, changing economic conditions continue to shape shopper behavior. To develop our predictions for 2022 holiday shopper behavior, we focused on four key areas: When consumers shop Where consumers shop What consumers purchase Consumer media preferences Now, let's make our holiday campaign planning checklist and check it twice. When consumers shop Chestnuts roasting on an open fire. Jack Frost nipping at your nose. Those aren’t the only ways to know when the holiday season has begun. Shoppers tend to spread out their holiday purchases across multiple months and were more likely to start shopping earlier. To understand holiday retail sales trends from 2019-2021, we identified four shopper segments: Early Shoppers Traditional Shoppers Late Shoppers Random Shoppers What differences did we see between our four shopper segments? Early shoppers made almost half of their holiday purchases in October Random shoppers spread out their holiday purchases evenly across multiple months Late shoppers made almost half of their holiday purchases in December Traditional shoppers made almost half of their holiday purchases in November While December continues to dominate holiday sales, October has started to gain traction over the last three years, and November remains a core shopping month. Everybody knows a turkey and a mistletoe help to make the season bright but knowing when your consumers are most likely to shop will help deck your campaign planning halls. Jingle bell rock your way to holiday sales that shine bright with our tips to prepare for earlier shoppers: Offer targeted promotions earlier in the shopping season Target your ads based on the shopping habits of your customers throughout the season Where consumers shop There’s no place like home for the holidays but most consumers aren’t shopping from home. Despite the rise in online shopping, brick and mortar locations continue to dominate holiday sales. October is the most popular month to take a one-horse open sleigh to a store, and consumers gather around the fire to online shop in November and December. With most shoppers preferring to shop in-store, and e-commerce popularity growing, it’s critical to think about bridging the gap between your online and offline presence for the consumer. Are you offering multiple paths to purchase with solutions such as BOPIS (Buy Online, Pickup In-Store)? Go down in history like Rudolph with our tips to prepare for more in-store shopping: Focus on in-store shopping experience technology (self-checkout, VR, QR codes, scan to pay, etc.) Offer multiple paths to purchase to connect your online and physical presence through methods such as BOPIS (Buy Online, Pickup In-Store), BORIS (Buy Online, Return In-Store), and ROPO (Research Online, Purchase Offline), etc. What consumers purchase When it comes to holiday gifts, for some, only a hippopotamus will do. Compared to pre-pandemic, shoppers are spending more at apparel stores and mass retailers. Spending at specialty retailers, warehouse clubs, and on office, electronic, and games is almost the same across holiday and non-holiday shopping months. Time for toys and time for cheer may be year-round, but are there any correlations between where consumers shop (online vs. in-store) and what they purchase? Our data found that shoppers who bought from mass retailers were more likely to shop online, while shopping for apparel and warehouse clubs was done at a physical store location. Put this insight to the test by thinking through how you can target your consumer based on where they shop in-store and online. You just might find that hippopotamus at a brick and mortar mass retailer location! Consumer media preferences Do you see what I see? While we are seeing a shift to digital media channel preference, consumers still engage with traditional media channels like direct mail and the traditional newspaper. Successfully connecting with your customers involves capturing their attention through the right channel. We found that our four shopping groups prefer a mix of traditional and digital media channels. What does your media channel mix look like? Hark! The herald angels sing of ways to adapt to the change in holiday spend and media preferences: Align your activation efforts to digital, but don't forget about traditional channels Expand your targeting and activation focus beyond in-store vs. online Download our new 2024 report For a deeper dive into our predictions and actionable insights you can use to take your holiday campaign planning home for the holidays, download our new 2024 report. Experian data can help you refine your content and creative strategy to achieve maximum ROI for each campaign across all your channels. Download now
Fluctuation in consumers' behaviors and preferences during the pandemic has prompted a shift in the practices and patterns that we are accustomed to. Powerful market forces are emerging as society builds a new normal, forcing marketers to rethink their strategy, activation, and measurement. It is important for marketers to understand the forces that influence the industry, and to learn about alternative approaches that can be applied to help reach their goals. In our recent webinar, ‘How to Adjust to the New World of Advertising,’ Experian’s Chris Feo and guest speaker Tina Moffett, Principal Analyst at Forrester Research, lead an in-depth discussion of the market dynamics and developments guiding us to this new era of advertising. They talked about: The pandemic changing consumer behavior Emerging media channels Data deprecation The pandemic and increased media consumption The pandemic caused seismic shifts in consumer behaviors and business operations. Work from home became the norm, consumers made drastic changes in their routines, and businesses had to adjust to new operating models as local economies shrank and supply chains strained. As stay-at-home orders were put into effect, consumers increased their media consumption drastically as more time was spent at home in front of their devices. According to Forrester, by June 2020, 48% of US online adults subscribed to at least one streaming service, while 34% had signed up for multiple. Forrester contends that: Social and online video/OTT will grow fastest among other categories of ad spend Connected TV outpaces other video advertising channels 55% of consumers plan to continue watching movies at home rather than in theatres after the pandemic Data deprecation The ways that marketers can personalize content and measure the effectiveness of campaigns is changing with data deprecation. Consumer preferences, regulations, and technology providers are evolving the way advertisers understand consumers, causing changes to existing identity-based marketing strategies. According to Forrester, 66% of marketers are investing in first-party data collection strategies to adapt to these market forces. Marketers need to adjust Demand for a new advertising approach Changes in consumer behavior, evolving media consumption patterns, and data deprecation have marketers looking at new approaches to targeting and measurement. However, with the future uncertain in many of these areas, marketers need to test and experiment to determine which approach is best for them in particular use cases. Shifting to a new world of experimentation Advertisers need to start by assessing their current environment to determine where they have exposure today, which methods of identification they are using, and how those channels may be impacted by the market forces outlined earlier. From there, they need to start asking themselves how they can assess identity in the future or if there is another way to approach advertising in that specific channel. There are specific areas where marketers can look to make investments in terms of experimentation: Adoption of cleanrooms to support analytics and audience targeting Investment in first-party data to overcome the issue of data deprecation Shifting to a value-based, omni-channel advertising mindset to address customers’ needs Investment in data-savvy resources to manage media insights Adoption of consistent cross-platform advertising metrics and currencies to inform better planning If you missed our recent webinar ‘How to Adjust to the New World of Advertising,’ you can listen to the full discussion here.
Hashed Email is a privacy-safe digital identifier that can further enrich and expand the functionality and utility of The Tapad Graph with access to Tapad + Experian’s universe of email data. This provides maximum coverage for targeting and measurement when combined with household and individual IDs such as Cookies, MAIDs, CTV IDs, and IP Addresses. Gain back a clearer view Recent data from DMA shows that 51% of people have held the same email address for over 10 years. Email address data by its nature is authenticated and reliable due to its longevity. When leveraging Hashed Email as an extended functionality of The Tapad Graph, we are able to link on average 5 email addresses to each individual, reaching up to 90% of households across the US. Hashed Email expands the customer view by adding new email address identifiers into The Tapad Graph that associate with traditional digital IDs and cookie-less IDs emerging in the marketplace. Reduce fragmentation; and instead of viewing the emails as multiple customers, with Hashed Email they can be viewed as one user profile. When enabled, clients who wouldn’t traditionally have access to first-party customer emails are able to associate and link privacy-safe emails to individuals and their households. Brands and retailers can use Hashed Email to extend these linkages across offline purchases associated with each email; connecting traditional digital identifiers between walled gardens, activation in programmatic media buys, and addressable TV. With the holiday season quickly approaching, access to Hashed Emails will instantly increase scale, connectivity and improve measurement when efficiency, personalization and holistic attribution are pivotal to marketing strategies. Let’s visualize how quickly the customer journey can become fragmented when email addresses that belong to the same person are not associated. Mary has 3 email addresses that she frequently uses. One for social media accounts Email ID 1, one for shopping accounts Email ID 2, and another for work Email ID 3. Mary is a brand loyalist to a top national retailer and whenever there is a new season, there is a high likelihood that she will purchase the latest seasonal decor from that store. She recently did some holiday shopping in-store where she purchased nearly the whole holiday line. Email ID 2 was used to send her a receipt. However, Mary annoyingly receives the store's ads on Facebook for holiday decor that she had already purchased. This is because the retailer has not yet identified that Email ID 1 and Email ID 2 belong to the same consumer. If the retailer were to leverage Hashed Email, they would be able to identify that both email addresses used belong to Mary. This association connects her multiple email addresses together, enables her offline purchases to sync with her online activity, and helps to determine the most accurate ROAS. Hashed Email is a cookie-free added view into consumer behavior for control over messaging and for measurement. When leveraging it’s possible to report back across all channels and devices in a universal format to know when and how conversions are taking place. Don't leave valuable data on the table Hashed Email has use cases beyond reducing wasted media impressions. Hashed Email’s full capabilities extend to campaign measurement and attribution modeling. When utilizing The Tapad Graph combined with Hashed Email, know from the first touchpoint to the last where your customers are engaging. But more importantly, know where households and the individuals inside of those households are converting across all of their digital devices, by using traditional digital IDs, cookie-less IDs, and Hashed Email to associate, measure, and correlate online and offline purchases. Imagine what your campaigns could look like this holiday season if you expanded your graph with up to 5 additional IDs per household. This impact could be a game-changer to scale this holiday season. Hashed Email is a reliable cookie-less digital identifier that expands your customer universe that connects online and offline activity while improving the customer experience and reducing wasted media spend. Enabling Hashed Email for the holiday season is not an opportunity that should be passed on. Where do you sign up, you ask? Get started with The Tapad Graph For personalized consultation on the value and benefits of The Tapad Graph for your business, email Sales@tapad.com today!