The AdTech industry is undergoing rapid changes as it adjusts to the impacts of data deprecation and ever-changing privacy regulations. At the same time, there are fears of a potential economic downturn. How should you handle marketing in a recession? What should your marketing mix look like? In this blog post, we’ll cover how to navigate this uncertainty and three essential ingredients for your marketing mix.
First, we’ll look at the complexity and uncertainty facing marketers.
Turbulence with Twitter
After Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover in October 2022, half of Twitter’s top 100 advertisers left the platform and started to seek out alternatives.
The retail media boom
In the next four years, Forrester Research projects that U.S. retail media ad sales will double to reach 85 billion by 2026.1
Most of this growth is catalyzed by CPG and consumer electronic brands that have a scarcity of zero- and first-party data; they need more media closer to the point of purchase, especially as CFOs are scrutinizing budgets.
Consumption continues to fragment
It’s becoming harder than ever to reach the right person, at the right time, predict their intent, and get a 360-degree view of your customer.2
Data deprecation is top of mind
According to Forrester Research, updating their data strategy to address data deprecation is the number one priority for marketers. Addressing data deprecation is also a priority for consumers, who increasingly feel that audience targeting is more intrusive than beneficial.3
Data deprecation affects identity solutions
Third-party data and mobile ad IDs (MAIDs) are the connective tissue for identity solutions. As we see those signals go away, there are fewer linkages to resolve identity and it’s leading to a rise in fragmented, duplicated, and shallow identity.
Recession fears
In addition to everything happening in AdTech, there are also fears of a possible recession. According to Forrester, 40% of Gen Z and 41% of Millennials believe fears of an upcoming recession are greatly exaggerated. On the other hand, only 24% of Gen X and 12% of Baby Boomers agree.4
Navigate uncertainty and marketing in a recession
With the current macroeconomic conditions, data deprecation, and fragmented consumption in mind, what should your strategy look like for marketing in a recession? Forrester recommends three strategies:
- People-led planning
- Test creative
- Optimize for marginal costs
People-led planning
Planning doesn’t have to be fragmented. Map offline and online media exposures to consumer decision journeys. Strategies like lifetime value (LTV) driven audience segmentation to correlate awareness at top of the funnel layered with demand generation exposures harvested later in the funnel. To do this, it’s crucial to work with providers that give you visibility into the audience buyer’s journey to awareness, intent, consideration, and purchase, all the way through to loyalty.5
Test creative
Make your creative work harder for you. Apply the same rigor with your creative that you applied to segmentation. Utilize multivariate testing to identify creative that is winning or losing. When you understand how each variable performs, you can scale the variables with creative optimization to have a material impact on performance.
Optimize for marginal costs
Optimize for marginal costs of acquisition, not just the average. Adjust for incrementality – what is the cost to acquire one more customer, rather than the average cost of acquisition.
Find the right marketing mix in a recession
With these changes in mind, how can you find the right marketing mix in a recession? We can show you the way.
You can create the right marketing mix with three key ingredients:
- Audiences
- Identity
- Activation
Let’s explore each ingredient to start you down the path toward marketing campaign success.
Audiences: Know your customer
The first ingredient to add to your marketing mix in a recession is your audience. Knowing your customer is key to targeting the right audiences successfully. Data-driven targeting can help you find your best audiences based on demographics, modeled lifestyles, and behaviors to improve marketing campaign performance.
Not sure where to start when it comes to developing your target audience strategy? We can help. We track digital usage of our data used by advertisers and identified the top four digital audiences that advertisers purchased over the last four years.
Four digital audiences to consider
Marketing strategies are only as strong as the data foundation they’re built on. The top four digital audiences that advertisers are purchasing from Experian include:
- Demographics
- Behavioral
- Modeled Lifestyles
- Custom Audiences
Demographics
Examples include age, gender, relationship status, living situation, life experience, and employment.
Behavioral
This audience allows marketers to identify households that are more likely to engage in certain activities or belong to certain groups.
Modeled Lifestyles
Experian’s Mosaic® USA segmentation. This is a household-based consumer lifestyle segmentation system that classifies all U.S. households and neighborhoods into 71 unique types and 19 overarching groups, providing a 360-degree view of consumers’ choices, preferences, and habits.
Custom Audiences
This is an audience blended from multiple sources or derived from first-party look-alike modeling.
Changes in digital audience strategies
Over the last four years, Modeled Lifestyles and Custom Audience purchases represented the smallest share of digital activation, while Behavioral and Demographic segments were more popular with advertisers.
When the U.S. rolled out the COVID-19 vaccine, consumers became more active. People were shopping in stores, returning to the gym, and taking trips that they had postponed during the height of the pandemic. Marketers turned to higher compositions of Demographic and Modeled Lifestyles to reach these audiences between April and December of 2021.
Sustained growth in Demographic audience activation could suggest a move back to tried and true audience strategies as signals continue to decline and amid evolving regulation. With economic uncertainty, marketers return to what they know. Traditional targeting methods like Demographics and Modeled Lifestyles are the baseline of many marketing strategies and we predict that we will continue to see marketers activating against these data sets.
Download our 2023 digital audience trends and predictions report to discover our full insights on how digital activation has changed and where we’re headed.
Identity: Understand the customer journey
Identity resolution is the next ingredient that you should add to your marketing mix in a recession. It should be a foundational element of every marketer’s strategy.
What is identity resolution? In the simplest terms, identity resolution is the process of matching different devices, IDs, and touchpoints back to a single person. Identity resolution expands marketers’ addressability and reach of their target audience and helps inform and measure accurate customer journeys.
Identity resolution challenges
Identity resolution faces two main challenges:
- Making the data actionable. Humans are complex. We have behaviors that change based on our current social groups and life events, we use dozens of internet-connected devices in a single day, and we exhibit distinct behaviors that happen online and in the physical world. This means marketers have mounds of data being collected from different channels based on that dynamic behavior of people, making it feel impossible to organize the data in a way that makes it feel actionable, know how it ties back to real humans, and ensure they’re doing it in a responsible and compliant way.
- Signal loss. Marketers continue to lose important signals that they’ve previously been able to rely on to inform their next move. Signals are being lost as our industry places more privacy regulations and restrictions on what can be tracked and as consumers themselves change behaviors to protect their privacy.
As consumer behaviors continue to change and signals disappear, identity resolution gets exponentially harder.
Expand addressability and reach with identity resolution
Data deprecation adversely affects identity solutions, but identity resolution should be a key ingredient in your marketing mix. Identity resolution ensures that consumers experience more relevant products, offers, and messaging – allowing you to reap the ROI benefits of hitting consumers at the perfect point in their journey.
Finding an identity resolution partner
When selecting an identity resolution partner, you should understand the data and processes that are implemented behind the scenes. It’s important to know:
- What makes up their consumer database?
- How fresh is their data?
- What identifiers can they match?
- How do they protect consumer privacy?
At Experian, we’re rooted in deterministic offline data which creates a stable foundation. We then layer in digital and behavioral touchpoints. We have decades of experience managing consumer data safely. We have insights on 250 million individuals, three billion devices, and one trillion device signals. Our databases evolve as quickly as the human behavior powering them does.
Our approach to identity resolution is open and agnostic. This means we can collect and ingest nearly all available offline and online identifiers. We can do this in all types of environments, including connected TV (CTV), mobile, and cookieless. We have two types of identity resolution:
- Offline
- Digital
This ensures we control how known and anonymous data points are connected for consumer privacy purposes.
Identity resolution in action
Our depth of data gives our clients access to see the whole human and gain the context around singular data points.
Let’s walk through an example of our identity resolution capabilities.
Challenge
Our TV media platform client needed to measure the effectiveness of an ad campaign they were running on behalf of a leading consumer electronics brand. The TV platform wanted to be able to accurately report on which consumers made a purchase after seeing the brand’s TV commercial on their platforms.
Solution
Using our digital identity resolution services, our client could capture online purchases made on the brand’s website and link them back to a consumer profile. In addition to online transactions, our client used our offline resolution services to resolve email addresses of consumers that purchased offline, using warranty registration details.
With online and offline purchase data now resolved back to an individual ID, we also performed identity resolution on viewers in their TV subscriber files that had also been exposed to the TV commercial. This allowed us to identify subscribers that had both seen the ad and purchased a product.
We provided our client with a packaged report that they could white-label and pass along to the brand.
Results
By providing this attribution reporting to the brand, the TV platform could validate the ROI spent on their platform. The brand was extremely satisfied with the results, and they transitioned the one-off TV commercial into an ongoing campaign and purchased quarterly measurement. This led to solid recurring revenue for the TV platform.
Activation: Experiment and measure the impact
The third and final ingredient to finding the right marketing mix in a recession is activation. Experimentation is the best way to determine which channels work best for your business and provide the most ROI.
Demand-side platforms (DSP), video platforms, and sell-side targeting are three important activation channels that you should consider experimenting with.
Demand-side platforms
We continue to see increased demand for environments where alternative identifiers are being transacted (like DSPs and video). Social channels are decreasing; this can be attributed to changes in privacy, security, and concerns around brand safety.
Amazon’s DSP is catching up with Google and Meta to become a top ad platform.
Video platforms
Digital video and other video channels like over-the-top (OTT) and CTV will continue to grow. Digital video will capture the most ad spend in 2023 (22.4% in 2023 vs 19.3% in 2022). Because of this, advertisers are placing bigger bets on the combination of addressable and CTV.
Sell-side targeting
Data sharing relationships will become strongest on the sell-side as we move toward consented first-party data. Ad dollars are shifting to channels that use the sell-side approach, like retail media and CTV.
Sell-side targeting enables brands to access large amounts of inventory across publishers and retailers. By getting closer to the ad inventory, advertisers can future-proof their strategies by having more access to better data signals. Direct relationships like these will be necessary as privacy regulations increase and signal loss continues.
We can help you find the right marketing mix in a recession
Now is the time to be opportunistic. Gaining share of voice during a downturn is cost-effective. Proactive marketing builds pent-up demand.
Delivering the right message in the right place at the right time means truly knowing your prospects and customers as individuals. At Experian, we bring you the highest-resolution picture of people, so you and your customers can connect with confidence.
You can turn prospects into customers with the right audience. By understanding your customers better, you can find more like them. Together we can power better results.
Find the right marketing mix
Check out our webinar, “Find the right marketing mix with rising consumer expectations.” Guest speaker, Nikhil Lai, Senior Analyst from Forrester Research, joined Experian experts Erin Haselkorn and Eden Wilbur. Watch the recording to learn:
- New data on the complexity and uncertainty facing marketers
- Consumer trends for 2023
- Recommendations on finding the right channel mix and the right consumers
Sources
- 2022 Retail Media Ad Sales Forecast, US. Forrester Research, Inc. 2022.
- Forrester Analytics Consumer Technographics® Technology, Media, and Telecom Topic Insights 1 Survey. Forrester Research, Inc. 2020.
- CMO Pulse Survey. Forrester Research, Inc. July 2021.
- Forrester’s Consumer Energy And Retail Online Survey. Forrester Research, Inc.
- People-Led Planning Solves Customer Problems to Drive Growth. Forrester Research, Inc. August 2, 2021.
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At Experian, we understand the importance of audience targeting when it comes to crafting a successful marketing campaign. That's why we've invested in developing 2,400+ syndicated audiences, which span across multiple verticals and categories, including demographic, and lifestyle and interest data. We are excited to share a curated list of audience recommendations to support your campaign planning so you can confidently connect with your audience. What separates Experian’s syndicated audiences Readily available on-the-shelf for activation of most major ad platforms, including the Trade Desk, Cadent, Microsoft, and Yahoo. Our audiences span 15 data verticals and categories including demographics, auto, retail purchases, lifestyle and interests, financial, and travel. With our history in data management and participation in industry standards groups, we have the expertise to build audiences that are built for privacy and focused on accuracy. New audience segments to consider for Q4 campaign planning These new audiences, recently released on major platforms, offer unique opportunities to align your campaign planning with the latest consumer trends and behaviors. Here are four new Experian audiences to include in your Q4 campaign planning: Holiday Shoppers: Black Friday Holiday Travel – Budget Savvy Airline Geo-Indexed Audiences – Hybrid Vehicle 24-Month Future Car Buyers Seasonal audiences for Q4 Political audiences As the 2024 election approaches, moving beyond broad categorizations like “Democrat,” “Republican,” or “Independent” is crucial. Voters want candidates who align with their beliefs and values and Experian’s political personas offer a nuanced understanding of American voters to craft tailored engagement strategies. Experian has created 10 political personas to help better understand the American voter so you can reach consumers based on their viewpoints on key political issues. Additionally, over 200 politically relevant Experian audiences are available for activation on-the-shelf of the leading TV, demand, and supply platforms. Learn more here Holiday audiences This upcoming holiday season serves as the perfect opportunity to drive sales and build customer relationships. Experian has recently introduced 19 new audiences that can help you reach relevant shoppers across major ad platforms including TV and programmatic. By using Experian’s audiences in your holiday advertising campaigns, you can reach last-minute shoppers, discount-seeking shoppers, gift-givers, and holiday travelers. Just as shoppers seek the perfect gifts, your holiday advertising campaigns can capture the right shoppers this holiday season with the right strategy. Read our holiday audience guide now Our top 10 audience recommendations for Q4 Based on the top Experian audiences activated in Q4 of 2023, our top 10 list is designed to help agencies and media buyers plan data-driven advertising campaigns. Household income level 1) $100,000+: This segment contains consumers who are likely to have an estimated household income of $100,000+. 2) $75,000+: This segment contains consumers who are likely to have an estimated household income of $75,000+. Demographics 3) Ages: 25-54: This segment contains consumers who are likely to be aged 25-54. 4) Ages: 30-39: This segment contains consumers who are likely to be aged 30-39. 5) Ages: 35-39: This segment contains consumers who are likely to be aged 35-39. 6) Ages: 40-49: This segment contains consumers who are likely to be aged 40-49. Homeowners 7) Homeowner: This segment contains consumers who are likely to be homeowners. Military 8) Inactive: This segment contains consumers who are likely to be inactive military. Automotive 9) In-market for a small, mid-size SUV: This segment contains consumers who are likely to be in the market to buy a mid-size SUV in the next 180 days. 10) In-market for a full-size SUV: This segment contains consumers who are likely to be in the market to buy a full-size SUV in the next 180 days. You can find the complete audience segment name in the appendix. Activate the right audiences with Experian When you choose Experian’s syndicated audiences, you gain access to over 2,400 audiences that span across 15 verticals and categories. These audiences are directly available for activation on over 30 platforms and can be sent to over 200 media platforms. Experian is ranked #1 for data accuracy (as validated by Truthset), and Experian Marketing Data is the foundation for successful targeting, enrichment, and activation. For a full list of Experian’s syndicated audiences and activation destinations, download our syndicated audiences guide. Need a custom audience? Reach out to our audience team and we can help you build and activate an Experian audience on the platform of your choice. Connect with our audience team Appendix Here are the complete audience segment names (taxonomy paths) for all audience segments discussed in this blog post. New audiences Autos, Cars and Trucks > Near Market > 24-Month Future Car Buyers Retail Shoppers: Purchase Based > Seasonal > Holiday Shoppers: Black Friday Autos, Cars and Trucks > Ownership – Geo-Indexed > Geo-Indexed Audiences –Hybrid Vehicle Retail Shoppers: Purchase Based > Seasonal > Holiday Budget Savvy Airline Travelers Household income level Demographics > Household Income (HHI) > $100,000+ Demographics > Household Income (HHI) > $75,000+ Demographics: Ages Demographics > Ages > 25-54 Demographics > Ages > 30-39 Demographics > Ages > 35-39 Demographics > Ages > 40-49 Homeowners Demographics > Homeowners/Renters > Homeowner Military Lifestyle and Interests (Affinity) > Occupation > Military – Inactive Automotive Autos, Cars and Trucks > In Market-Body Styles > Small Mid-Size SUV Autos, Cars and Trucks > In Market-Body Styles > Full-Size SUVs Latest posts
Experian, the leader in powering data-driven advertising through connectivity, is thrilled to unveil our latest solution, Digital Graph and Marketing Attributes. This joint solution supplies marketers and platforms with the insights and connectivity needed to understand who their customers are and reach them across digital channels. The uncertainty around third-party cookies in Chrome and the overall decline in signal complicates the industry’s ability to reach the right consumer. Omnichannel media consumption results in scattered data, making it harder for marketers and platforms to understand consumer behavior and reach them across channels. These challenges call for a comprehensive solution. Our Digital Graph and Marketing Attributes solution addresses these challenges by providing identifiers for seamless cross-channel engagement. By adding Marketing Attributes, like demographic and behavioral data, marketers and platforms also gain a better understanding of their customers. 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With partners like Experian, OpenX effectively facilitates the value exchange between demand and supply, ensuring our partners are able to drive results for their business in the era of signal loss"Craig Golaszewski, Sr. Director of Strategic Partnerships, OpenX How StackAdapt licenses our product bundle to address three different use cases StackAdapt is the multi-channel programmatic advertising platform trusted by marketers to deliver exceptional campaigns. They drive superior results through a variety of solutions, like contextual and first-party targeting, brand lift measurement, and optimization through insights. StackAdapt licensed a similar yet unique product combination, our Digital Graph and our Audiences. 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A company might know that they want to reach pickleball fans. Now, they have the digital identifiers needed to reach pickleball fans across all digital channels where they consume content, leading to increased reach. Measurement and attribution: Use the Digital Graph’s support for various digital identifiers to understand all consumer touchpoints, from media impressions to conversions. Then, lean on our Marketing Attributes to determine who your messaging resonated with. For example, a company uses our Digital Graph to know if it was the same individual who was exposed to an ad on CTV and converted via e-commerce. On top of that, the company can use our Marketing Attributes data to find out that the people who purchased were overwhelmingly pickleball fans. Connect with us to learn more about how our Digital Graph and Marketing Attributes joint solution can provide the data and insights you need to create, activate, and measure cross-channel media campaigns. 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After a six-month beta period, collaboration in Snowflake Data Clean Rooms using Experian's offline or digital graph is now generally available for all clients. As part of this, Experian is excited to announce that Experian's identity graph will be integrated into Snowflake's Data Clean Rooms. With the growing importance of data privacy and marketing efficiency, this partnership builds off of Experian's previously-announced integration into Snowflake's AI Data Cloud for Media. Adding Experian's identity graph to Snowflake Data Clean Rooms helps advertisers, advertising platforms, and measurement partners work more effectively. Built upon Experian’s rich offline and digital identity foundation, with support for various identifiers across platforms, collaboration in Snowflake Data Clean Rooms helps clients maximize the value of their data and meet the diverse needs of modern business: Collaborate with partners for richer data insights Achieve higher match rates Improve audience building Produce more accurate and complete reports Ensure data privacy Seamless integration of AdTech and MarTech platforms Regardless of the identifier type you are looking to collaborate on, Experian has the identity data in Snowflake Data Clean Rooms to support you and your partner. This leads to higher match rates and more resolved data for you to use to benefit your media initiatives. "Integrating Experian's identity graph into Snowflake Data Clean Rooms marks a transformative leap for digital marketing. This collaboration empowers advertisers, programmatic platforms, and measurement partners with unparalleled accuracy, privacy, and efficiency. Together, we are excited to provide innovative solutions to meet the evolving needs of our clients."Kamakshi Sivaramakrishnan, Head of Data Clean Rooms at Snowflake The Experian and Snowflake partnership showcases how collaboration can enhance scalability and cost-efficiency. Data clean rooms provide a secure environment where multiple parties can share, join, and analyze their data assets without leaving the clean room or exposing the underlying data. By integrating Experian's identity graph within Snowflake's secure platform businesses of all sizes can receive advanced data collaboration and identity tools without the high costs usually involved. The integration prioritizes consumer privacy and data security. Backed by Experian’s Global Data Principles, Experian's deep roots in data protection and security provide customers with the most trusted way to share data and protect consumer privacy. With Experian's graph in Snowflake Data Clean Rooms, customers will get a solution that respects customer consent, safeguards sensitive data, and ensures that processing occurs with the utmost respect for user confidentiality and preferences. Further, Snowflake Data Clean Rooms uses advanced methods to preserve privacy, such as differential privacy and secure computations on encrypted data, enabling data security and integrity. Together, these methods prevent unauthorized access by keeping sensitive data within the secure confines of the cleanroom on a strict, collaboration-to-collaboration basis. The collaboration between Experian and Snowflake significantly enhances data matching and identity resolution within the Snowflake Data Cleanroom. Experian’s identity solution uses digital identifiers like hashed emails, MAIDs, and CTV IDs and offline identifiers like name and address. This allows advertisers to reach more consumers and enrich their data. Marketers can easily use their first-party data in the cleanroom, and with Experian's Graph, they get higher match rates for more accurate targeting and campaign measurement. The continued partnership between Snowflake and Experian provide advertisers, platforms, and measurement providers a secure and effective way to collaborate. This sets the stage for continued innovation in programmatic advertising, ensuring that our solutions evolve in step with our clients' needs. If you're not utilizing clean rooms for collaboration but have advanced identity needs, you can license our Graph and seamlessly integrate it into your Snowflake account. Reach out to our team to learn more Latest posts