The AdTech industry is undergoing rapid changes as it adjusts to the impacts of data deprecation and ever-changing privacy regulations. At the same time, there are fears of a potential economic downturn. How should you handle marketing in a recession? What should your marketing mix look like? In this blog post, we’ll cover how to navigate this uncertainty and three essential ingredients for your marketing mix.
First, we’ll look at the complexity and uncertainty facing marketers.
Turbulence with Twitter
After Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover in October 2022, half of Twitter’s top 100 advertisers left the platform and started to seek out alternatives.
The retail media boom
In the next four years, Forrester Research projects that U.S. retail media ad sales will double to reach 85 billion by 2026.1
Most of this growth is catalyzed by CPG and consumer electronic brands that have a scarcity of zero- and first-party data; they need more media closer to the point of purchase, especially as CFOs are scrutinizing budgets.
Consumption continues to fragment
It’s becoming harder than ever to reach the right person, at the right time, predict their intent, and get a 360-degree view of your customer.2
Data deprecation is top of mind
According to Forrester Research, updating their data strategy to address data deprecation is the number one priority for marketers. Addressing data deprecation is also a priority for consumers, who increasingly feel that audience targeting is more intrusive than beneficial.3
Data deprecation affects identity solutions
Third-party data and mobile ad IDs (MAIDs) are the connective tissue for identity solutions. As we see those signals go away, there are fewer linkages to resolve identity and it’s leading to a rise in fragmented, duplicated, and shallow identity.
Recession fears
In addition to everything happening in AdTech, there are also fears of a possible recession. According to Forrester, 40% of Gen Z and 41% of Millennials believe fears of an upcoming recession are greatly exaggerated. On the other hand, only 24% of Gen X and 12% of Baby Boomers agree.4
Navigate uncertainty and marketing in a recession
With the current macroeconomic conditions, data deprecation, and fragmented consumption in mind, what should your strategy look like for marketing in a recession? Forrester recommends three strategies:
- People-led planning
- Test creative
- Optimize for marginal costs
People-led planning
Planning doesn’t have to be fragmented. Map offline and online media exposures to consumer decision journeys. Strategies like lifetime value (LTV) driven audience segmentation to correlate awareness at top of the funnel layered with demand generation exposures harvested later in the funnel. To do this, it’s crucial to work with providers that give you visibility into the audience buyer’s journey to awareness, intent, consideration, and purchase, all the way through to loyalty.5
Test creative
Make your creative work harder for you. Apply the same rigor with your creative that you applied to segmentation. Utilize multivariate testing to identify creative that is winning or losing. When you understand how each variable performs, you can scale the variables with creative optimization to have a material impact on performance.
Optimize for marginal costs
Optimize for marginal costs of acquisition, not just the average. Adjust for incrementality – what is the cost to acquire one more customer, rather than the average cost of acquisition.
Find the right marketing mix in a recession
With these changes in mind, how can you find the right marketing mix in a recession? We can show you the way.
You can create the right marketing mix with three key ingredients:
- Audiences
- Identity
- Activation
Let’s explore each ingredient to start you down the path toward marketing campaign success.
Audiences: Know your customer
The first ingredient to add to your marketing mix in a recession is your audience. Knowing your customer is key to targeting the right audiences successfully. Data-driven targeting can help you find your best audiences based on demographics, modeled lifestyles, and behaviors to improve marketing campaign performance.
Not sure where to start when it comes to developing your target audience strategy? We can help. We track digital usage of our data used by advertisers and identified the top four digital audiences that advertisers purchased over the last four years.
Four digital audiences to consider
Marketing strategies are only as strong as the data foundation they’re built on. The top four digital audiences that advertisers are purchasing from Experian include:
- Demographics
- Behavioral
- Modeled Lifestyles
- Custom Audiences
Demographics
Examples include age, gender, relationship status, living situation, life experience, and employment.
Behavioral
This audience allows marketers to identify households that are more likely to engage in certain activities or belong to certain groups.
Modeled Lifestyles
Experian’s Mosaic® USA segmentation. This is a household-based consumer lifestyle segmentation system that classifies all U.S. households and neighborhoods into 71 unique types and 19 overarching groups, providing a 360-degree view of consumers’ choices, preferences, and habits.
Custom Audiences
This is an audience blended from multiple sources or derived from first-party look-alike modeling.
Changes in digital audience strategies
Over the last four years, Modeled Lifestyles and Custom Audience purchases represented the smallest share of digital activation, while Behavioral and Demographic segments were more popular with advertisers.
When the U.S. rolled out the COVID-19 vaccine, consumers became more active. People were shopping in stores, returning to the gym, and taking trips that they had postponed during the height of the pandemic. Marketers turned to higher compositions of Demographic and Modeled Lifestyles to reach these audiences between April and December of 2021.
Sustained growth in Demographic audience activation could suggest a move back to tried and true audience strategies as signals continue to decline and amid evolving regulation. With economic uncertainty, marketers return to what they know. Traditional targeting methods like Demographics and Modeled Lifestyles are the baseline of many marketing strategies and we predict that we will continue to see marketers activating against these data sets.
Download our 2023 digital audience trends and predictions report to discover our full insights on how digital activation has changed and where we’re headed.
Identity: Understand the customer journey
Identity resolution is the next ingredient that you should add to your marketing mix in a recession. It should be a foundational element of every marketer’s strategy.
What is identity resolution? In the simplest terms, identity resolution is the process of matching different devices, IDs, and touchpoints back to a single person. Identity resolution expands marketers’ addressability and reach of their target audience and helps inform and measure accurate customer journeys.
Identity resolution challenges
Identity resolution faces two main challenges:
- Making the data actionable. Humans are complex. We have behaviors that change based on our current social groups and life events, we use dozens of internet-connected devices in a single day, and we exhibit distinct behaviors that happen online and in the physical world. This means marketers have mounds of data being collected from different channels based on that dynamic behavior of people, making it feel impossible to organize the data in a way that makes it feel actionable, know how it ties back to real humans, and ensure they’re doing it in a responsible and compliant way.
- Signal loss. Marketers continue to lose important signals that they’ve previously been able to rely on to inform their next move. Signals are being lost as our industry places more privacy regulations and restrictions on what can be tracked and as consumers themselves change behaviors to protect their privacy.
As consumer behaviors continue to change and signals disappear, identity resolution gets exponentially harder.
Expand addressability and reach with identity resolution
Data deprecation adversely affects identity solutions, but identity resolution should be a key ingredient in your marketing mix. Identity resolution ensures that consumers experience more relevant products, offers, and messaging – allowing you to reap the ROI benefits of hitting consumers at the perfect point in their journey.
Finding an identity resolution partner
When selecting an identity resolution partner, you should understand the data and processes that are implemented behind the scenes. It’s important to know:
- What makes up their consumer database?
- How fresh is their data?
- What identifiers can they match?
- How do they protect consumer privacy?
At Experian, we’re rooted in deterministic offline data which creates a stable foundation. We then layer in digital and behavioral touchpoints. We have decades of experience managing consumer data safely. We have insights on 250 million individuals, three billion devices, and one trillion device signals. Our databases evolve as quickly as the human behavior powering them does.
Our approach to identity resolution is open and agnostic. This means we can collect and ingest nearly all available offline and online identifiers. We can do this in all types of environments, including connected TV (CTV), mobile, and cookieless. We have two types of identity resolution:
- Offline
- Digital
This ensures we control how known and anonymous data points are connected for consumer privacy purposes.
Identity resolution in action
Our depth of data gives our clients access to see the whole human and gain the context around singular data points.
Let’s walk through an example of our identity resolution capabilities.
Challenge
Our TV media platform client needed to measure the effectiveness of an ad campaign they were running on behalf of a leading consumer electronics brand. The TV platform wanted to be able to accurately report on which consumers made a purchase after seeing the brand’s TV commercial on their platforms.
Solution
Using our digital identity resolution services, our client could capture online purchases made on the brand’s website and link them back to a consumer profile. In addition to online transactions, our client used our offline resolution services to resolve email addresses of consumers that purchased offline, using warranty registration details.
With online and offline purchase data now resolved back to an individual ID, we also performed identity resolution on viewers in their TV subscriber files that had also been exposed to the TV commercial. This allowed us to identify subscribers that had both seen the ad and purchased a product.
We provided our client with a packaged report that they could white-label and pass along to the brand.
Results
By providing this attribution reporting to the brand, the TV platform could validate the ROI spent on their platform. The brand was extremely satisfied with the results, and they transitioned the one-off TV commercial into an ongoing campaign and purchased quarterly measurement. This led to solid recurring revenue for the TV platform.
Activation: Experiment and measure the impact
The third and final ingredient to finding the right marketing mix in a recession is activation. Experimentation is the best way to determine which channels work best for your business and provide the most ROI.
Demand-side platforms (DSP), video platforms, and sell-side targeting are three important activation channels that you should consider experimenting with.
Demand-side platforms
We continue to see increased demand for environments where alternative identifiers are being transacted (like DSPs and video). Social channels are decreasing; this can be attributed to changes in privacy, security, and concerns around brand safety.
Amazon’s DSP is catching up with Google and Meta to become a top ad platform.
Video platforms
Digital video and other video channels like over-the-top (OTT) and CTV will continue to grow. Digital video will capture the most ad spend in 2023 (22.4% in 2023 vs 19.3% in 2022). Because of this, advertisers are placing bigger bets on the combination of addressable and CTV.
Sell-side targeting
Data sharing relationships will become strongest on the sell-side as we move toward consented first-party data. Ad dollars are shifting to channels that use the sell-side approach, like retail media and CTV.
Sell-side targeting enables brands to access large amounts of inventory across publishers and retailers. By getting closer to the ad inventory, advertisers can future-proof their strategies by having more access to better data signals. Direct relationships like these will be necessary as privacy regulations increase and signal loss continues.
We can help you find the right marketing mix in a recession
Now is the time to be opportunistic. Gaining share of voice during a downturn is cost-effective. Proactive marketing builds pent-up demand.
Delivering the right message in the right place at the right time means truly knowing your prospects and customers as individuals. At Experian, we bring you the highest-resolution picture of people, so you and your customers can connect with confidence.
You can turn prospects into customers with the right audience. By understanding your customers better, you can find more like them. Together we can power better results.
Find the right marketing mix
Check out our webinar, “Find the right marketing mix with rising consumer expectations.” Guest speaker, Nikhil Lai, Senior Analyst from Forrester Research, joined Experian experts Erin Haselkorn and Eden Wilbur. Watch the recording to learn:
- New data on the complexity and uncertainty facing marketers
- Consumer trends for 2023
- Recommendations on finding the right channel mix and the right consumers
Sources
- 2022 Retail Media Ad Sales Forecast, US. Forrester Research, Inc. 2022.
- Forrester Analytics Consumer Technographics® Technology, Media, and Telecom Topic Insights 1 Survey. Forrester Research, Inc. 2020.
- CMO Pulse Survey. Forrester Research, Inc. July 2021.
- Forrester’s Consumer Energy And Retail Online Survey. Forrester Research, Inc.
- People-Led Planning Solves Customer Problems to Drive Growth. Forrester Research, Inc. August 2, 2021.
Latest posts
It's back-to-school season. Knowing your target audience is an essential piece of planning a successful back-to-school marketing campaign. To get the most out of your marketing investment this back-to-school season, it’s important to understand how to identify and segment back-to-school shoppers so you can make sure that the right message reaches the right group at the right time. In this blog post, we'll cover how you can segment your target audience to create and deliver custom messaging tailored to individual groups. We'll discuss segmentation methods that uncover: Who they are Where they live What type of person they are How they behave and spend Here are our tips to accurately define and target your back-to-school marketing audience. Maximize back-to-school marketing with customer segmentation Customer segmentation is the process of dividing your audience into smaller groups based on common characteristics such as demographics, behaviors, psychographics, geographics, and more. The purpose of customer segmentation is to create a more personalized and effective approach to marketing. By understanding the unique needs and preferences of each segment, you can tailor your messaging, campaigns, and content to resonate with your customers on a deeper level. Benefits of customer segmentation Three benefits of customer segmentation include: Improved audience targeting Higher engagement rates Increased ROI Instead of addressing your entire customer base with generic messaging, segmentation enables you to deliver custom campaign messaging that speaks directly to each group. This personalized approach helps build trust and loyalty with your customers over time. Customer segmentation also allows you to better understand your customers, their motivations, and pain points, ultimately leading to more effective marketing campaigns. Types of customer segmentation When it comes to segmenting your customers, there are several methods to consider. By experimenting with different approaches, you can find the best fit for your business. Keep in mind that the most effective customer segments will differ depending on the industry. Let's review four types of customer segmentation that you can implement as part of your back-to-school marketing strategy. 1. Demographic segmentation Demographic segmentation categorizes consumers into groups based on shared demographic characteristics such as age, gender, income, occupation, marital status, and family size. For example, targeting college students during the back-to-school season with promotions on laptops is likely to be more effective than targeting retirees who may have less interest in such products. 2. Behavioral segmentation Behavioral segmentation divides customers into groups based on their demonstrated behaviors. This method sorts customers by their knowledge of products or services, attitudes toward brands, likes/dislikes about offers, responses to promotions, purchasing tendencies, and usage of products/services. Behavioral segmentation can help you identify the highest-spending customer segments, so you can budget and target more effectively. Through this type of segmentation, you can analyze each group's patterns, discover trends, and plan informed marketing moves for the future. In a back-to-school campaign, you could use behavioral segmentation to identify students who prefer to shop locally. You could then target students who value supporting local businesses and emphasize the importance of buying from local retailers during the back-to-school season. 3. Geographic segmentation Geographic segmentation involves dividing your target market into groups based on their physical locations. Geographic segmentation reveals aspects of a local market, including physical location, climate, culture, population density, and language. In a back-to-school campaign, you could use geographic segmentation to identify target audiences in colder climates who may be more interested in winter clothing and gear. You could also use geographic segmentation to target students living in college towns with messaging that speaks directly to campus life. 4. Psychographic segmentation Psychographic segmentation groups customers based on psychological factors such as lifestyle, interests, personality, and values. In a back-to-school campaign, you could use psychographic segmentation to target students who value sustainable practices, promote eco-friendly products, or offer incentives for recycling and reusing items. Watch our 2024 video for tips from industry leaders for back-to-school In our new Q&A video with Experian experts, we explore changing consumer behaviors surrounding back-to-school shopping in 2024. In the video, we discuss: Anticipated shifts in consumer behaviors and shopping habits Tactics we predict marketers will employ to navigate signal loss Which channels will be the most successful And more! Watch now Latest posts
As I walked onto the buzzing streets of Cannes for the first time, my senses were immediately captivated by the energy that filled the air. I'd heard plenty about Cannes Lions, the globally revered International Festival of Creativity, but being in the midst of it all was an entirely different ballgame. 1. A visual extravaganza From the moment I woke up from my two-hour nap, (Seattle was a long way to travel to Cannes), I was awestruck by the grandeur of the festival. Usually known for its tranquil beauty, the city was alive and brimming with imagination. Massive installations, eye-catching billboards, and immersive media experiences were scattered over the two-kilometer stretch of La Croisette, transforming the city into a canvas of creativity. I saw firsthand how abstract concepts could be turned into palpable realities, especially those of Spotify, Yahoo!, and Stagwell's Sport Beach with their basketball court with stadium seating setup. 2. Nuggets of wisdom shared in panels The festival's days were jam-packed with thought leadership panels – each a masterclass in the ever-evolving universe of AdTech. Fortunately, as a member of the Experian team, I didn't have to travel far for unique panels; we hosted four panels throughout the week, and I was immersed in dynamic discussions about new trends, groundbreaking ideas, and the challenges ahead. One recurring theme that resonated with me was the intricacies of authentically connecting with consumers. Finding genuine human connections amidst digital chaos can be challenging in today's tech-driven world. These dialogues provided incredible insights into how we could maintain the delicate balance between personalization and privacy and effectively use artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance customer engagement without compromising the human essence in advertising. Watch our panels 3. Connect with your peers If Cannes Lions is known for anything apart from its creative inspiration, it's the unparalleled networking opportunities. The festival allowed me to interact with professionals from all corners of the world. Each exchange was not merely about exchanging contact details but building meaningful relationships. Will these first arcs lead to meaningful friendships? I sure hope so. 4. A comprehensive learning opportunity The most crucial aspect of the festival was the immense opportunity it offered for learning. I found myself constantly absorbing new information and insights from the panels, every conversation, and every chance meeting. 5. Juggle your time Effective time management was crucial for maximizing my Cannes experience, with many things happening concurrently. I would give myself a B- for this. During the day, when I had some downtime, I could have ventured to another panel, attended a networking event, or taken in a view of the city I didn't get. That's the biggest challenge, and the beauty of Cannes Lions is its unique blend of professional learning opportunities set against the backdrop of a picturesque seaside town, but how do you do it all? 6. Relish the experience My week at Cannes was filled with intense learning, insightful conversations, and eye-opening experiences, leaving me mentally drained and intellectually stimulated (I think those can happen concurrently). The festival left me with a renewed appreciation of why we do what we do in the AdTech industry: supporting the pursuit of creativity, the drive for innovation, and the desire to forge meaningful connections. Cannes Lions was more than just a festival – it was a week of stepping out of my comfort zone, gaining deep insights, and establishing relationships that I hope will last a lifetime. As I boarded my flight out of Nice, surrounded by adults with layers of event access bracelets, I was inspired and stacked with knowledge and ideas that will help drive meaningful marketing opportunities with our content and partnerships. The grandeur, the learning sessions, the networking, and the profound lessons exceeded all my expectations. My week at Cannes Lions was unique, intense, insightful, and unforgettable. It was an experience I can't wait to repeat! Follow us on LinkedIn or sign up for our email newsletter for more informative content on the latest industry insights and data-driven marketing. Latest posts
It’s been one week since the highly anticipated Cannes Lions 2023 – the event of the year for advertising and creativity. We're thrilled to share our top four key takeaways from the event, showcasing what the industry will prioritize in the upcoming year. Signal loss At Cannes Lions 2023, experts underlined the detrimental effects of signal loss on advertising and emphasized the significance of having diverse channels. Discussions emphasized the importance of adapting paid media strategies to align with evolving consumer behaviors in order to remain relevant in the ever-changing landscape. Urgency in planning and avoiding being caught without a solid strategy was a common theme throughout the event. Alternative identifiers, like first-party data, were highlighted, as they prioritize privacy-centric approaches. Contextual advertising emerged as a key part of the solution, providing relevant ads that fit seamlessly into the user's experience. Collaboration Collaboration was a major theme at Cannes Lions 2023. Attendees explored topics such as maintaining privacy and identifying the right attributes for effective targeting. Clean rooms were discussed as a way to ensure privacy when sharing data, and highlighted partnerships as the key to unlocking interoperability within the advertising ecosystem. The discussions underscored the need for industry players to join forces and collaborate on solutions that benefit all stakeholders in the ecosystem. “What makes Cannes unique is that you have a lot of decision makers in the room at the same time. This leads to more efficiency in terms of coming up with goals and objectives and really getting to the heart of the key aspects for us to build partnerships.”alison omealia, vp, customer success, experian Personalization Personalization was a key topic of discussion at Cannes Lions 2023, with its growing significance in advertising taking center stage. The event emphasized the need to focus on serving up tailored content that resonates with individual consumers, cultivating brand affinity. The intersection of science and art was highlighted, emphasizing the role of data-driven insights and creativity in supporting frequency capping and delivering engaging content. Advertisers are adapting to cookie deprecation by shifting from cookie-based third-party targeting to first-party data solutions. This is due to the significant changes in the consumer privacy landscape, which have limited advertisers' access to signals emitted by consumers through their devices and browsers. As a result, alternative IDs like UID2, Ramp ID, and ID5 are emerging as viable options for advertisers to continue personalized targeting. Balancing AI and creativity at Cannes Lions 2023 Participants shared invaluable insights on how to strike the right balance between harnessing AI's capabilities and nurturing creativity to keep the human touch alive. The event emphasized the importance of understanding the boundaries of AI while utilizing tools that drive innovation and imagination. Attendees explored the dynamic roles that AI provides and discussed how it can help push the boundaries of their creativity while still keeping the human element intact. As technology continues to advance, so does the need for advertisers to adapt their approach and integrate AI in a way that enhances their creative output. Experian events at Cannes Lions 2023 We hosted a series of events that included a kick-off event and four panels. The activities were designed to provide attendees with valuable insights on various topics related to advertising and data privacy. Here's a recap of what we covered during the week. Experian’s Cannes Lions kick-off event We co-hosted a kick-off event on Sunday with Audigent. It was a successful event that brought people together to launch an important week in the AdTech industry and build connections with clients and prospects alike. Data on the sell-side Ongoing signal loss has marketers, agencies, and platforms tapping directly into the sell-side for high-quality audience and context. In this panel, industry experts from Truthset, Captify, Audigent, Newsweek, and PubMatic joined Experian to discuss the imminent disappearance of cookies and the need to adapt and future-proof data privacy strategies. The deprecation of third-party cookies presents an incredible opportunity to redefine data privacy practices and empower consumers. Our panelists emphasized the need to adapt and invest in alternative identifiers in order to thrive in a cookie-less future. Publishers were urged to create valuable content, engage in first-party activities, and consider the next generation of consumers who are growing up without traditional identifiers. The fragmented landscape calls for a variety of tactics and partnerships, while AI can provide opportunities to explore beyond deterministic identifiers, fostering creativity and innovation in advertising practices. Stacking the marketer's toolbox for success In partnership with Adweek Abroad in Cannes, industry leaders from FreeWheel, Tubi, and Instacart joined Experian to discuss opportunities for brands to unlock deeper, richer, and more scalable insights into current and potential customers. The panelists highlighted several key considerations, including building a robust first-party data strategy, ensuring accuracy in data quality partnerships, and establishing better-connected communications and relationships with consumers. Participants acknowledged the value of consumer data and urged advertisers to remain purpose-driven, always putting the viewer first. The freshness and recency of data were identified as critical factors for establishing quality connections with consumers and staying attuned to consumer trends. What does the future of identity hold? During this panel discussion, industry leaders from the IAB, MiQ, Cint, Direct Digital Holdings, and Tatari joined Experian to explore the future of identity. The panelists discussed the challenges cookie deprecation poses in programmatic advertising and the need for new identifiers and solutions. They also acknowledged the expanding media landscape and the importance of frequency capping and attribution measurement in a post-cookie era. Trends to watch for include the potential consolidation of identifiers and the movement of first-party data in-house by larger media companies. Panelists shared different views on cookie deprecation readiness and the overhype of AI in the industry. Streaming takes center stage OMG, Roku, AMC Networks, Paramount, and Disney joined Experian to discuss streaming TV as a fragmented and evolving landscape. The panelists debated whether it has become a performance channel and emphasized the need for client education, attribution, and optimizing performance metrics. They also discussed reaching audiences across different mediums with data interoperability, audience targeting, and reliable identity solutions. The panelists explored the emerging trend of AI, optimizing ad placement, refining targeting, streamlining creative approval, and enhancing ad breaks. “A lot of trends in AdTech are relevant to TV, but the most consistent trend has definitely been having a solid identity source throughout the whole lifecycle of a campaign within TV.”ali mack, sr. director, platforms, experian Watch our panels Let’s keep the conversation going The innovation and possibilities for signal loss, collaboration, personalization, and balancing AI and creativity are limitless, but understanding exactly how to get there is what can make all the difference. As we wrap up another successful week at Cannes Lions, let's use these conversations as an opportunity to advance together toward a more connected future — what trends are you most looking forward to? If you’d like to discuss any of these topics further, get in touch with us! Contact us Check out more Cannes content: Insights from a first-time attendee Four new marketing strategies for 2023 Exploring the opportunities in streaming TV advertising The future of identity in cookieless advertising Maximize ad targeting with supply-side advertising Follow us on LinkedIn or sign up for our email newsletter for more informative content on the latest industry insights and data-driven marketing. Latest posts