The AdTech industry is undergoing rapid changes as it adjusts to the impacts of data deprecation and ever-changing privacy regulations. At the same time, there are fears of a potential economic downturn. How should you handle marketing in a recession? What should your marketing mix look like? In this blog post, we’ll cover how to navigate this uncertainty and three essential ingredients for your marketing mix.
First, we’ll look at the complexity and uncertainty facing marketers.
Turbulence with Twitter
After Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover in October 2022, half of Twitter’s top 100 advertisers left the platform and started to seek out alternatives.
The retail media boom
In the next four years, Forrester Research projects that U.S. retail media ad sales will double to reach 85 billion by 2026.1
Most of this growth is catalyzed by CPG and consumer electronic brands that have a scarcity of zero- and first-party data; they need more media closer to the point of purchase, especially as CFOs are scrutinizing budgets.
Consumption continues to fragment
It’s becoming harder than ever to reach the right person, at the right time, predict their intent, and get a 360-degree view of your customer.2
Data deprecation is top of mind
According to Forrester Research, updating their data strategy to address data deprecation is the number one priority for marketers. Addressing data deprecation is also a priority for consumers, who increasingly feel that audience targeting is more intrusive than beneficial.3
Data deprecation affects identity solutions
Third-party data and mobile ad IDs (MAIDs) are the connective tissue for identity solutions. As we see those signals go away, there are fewer linkages to resolve identity and it’s leading to a rise in fragmented, duplicated, and shallow identity.
Recession fears
In addition to everything happening in AdTech, there are also fears of a possible recession. According to Forrester, 40% of Gen Z and 41% of Millennials believe fears of an upcoming recession are greatly exaggerated. On the other hand, only 24% of Gen X and 12% of Baby Boomers agree.4
Navigate uncertainty and marketing in a recession
With the current macroeconomic conditions, data deprecation, and fragmented consumption in mind, what should your strategy look like for marketing in a recession? Forrester recommends three strategies:
- People-led planning
- Test creative
- Optimize for marginal costs
People-led planning
Planning doesn’t have to be fragmented. Map offline and online media exposures to consumer decision journeys. Strategies like lifetime value (LTV) driven audience segmentation to correlate awareness at top of the funnel layered with demand generation exposures harvested later in the funnel. To do this, it’s crucial to work with providers that give you visibility into the audience buyer’s journey to awareness, intent, consideration, and purchase, all the way through to loyalty.5
Test creative
Make your creative work harder for you. Apply the same rigor with your creative that you applied to segmentation. Utilize multivariate testing to identify creative that is winning or losing. When you understand how each variable performs, you can scale the variables with creative optimization to have a material impact on performance.
Optimize for marginal costs
Optimize for marginal costs of acquisition, not just the average. Adjust for incrementality – what is the cost to acquire one more customer, rather than the average cost of acquisition.
Find the right marketing mix in a recession
With these changes in mind, how can you find the right marketing mix in a recession? We can show you the way.
You can create the right marketing mix with three key ingredients:
- Audiences
- Identity
- Activation
Let’s explore each ingredient to start you down the path toward marketing campaign success.
Audiences: Know your customer
The first ingredient to add to your marketing mix in a recession is your audience. Knowing your customer is key to targeting the right audiences successfully. Data-driven targeting can help you find your best audiences based on demographics, modeled lifestyles, and behaviors to improve marketing campaign performance.
Not sure where to start when it comes to developing your target audience strategy? We can help. We track digital usage of our data used by advertisers and identified the top four digital audiences that advertisers purchased over the last four years.
Four digital audiences to consider
Marketing strategies are only as strong as the data foundation they’re built on. The top four digital audiences that advertisers are purchasing from Experian include:
- Demographics
- Behavioral
- Modeled Lifestyles
- Custom Audiences
Demographics
Examples include age, gender, relationship status, living situation, life experience, and employment.
Behavioral
This audience allows marketers to identify households that are more likely to engage in certain activities or belong to certain groups.
Modeled Lifestyles
Experian’s Mosaic® USA segmentation. This is a household-based consumer lifestyle segmentation system that classifies all U.S. households and neighborhoods into 71 unique types and 19 overarching groups, providing a 360-degree view of consumers’ choices, preferences, and habits.
Custom Audiences
This is an audience blended from multiple sources or derived from first-party look-alike modeling.
Changes in digital audience strategies
Over the last four years, Modeled Lifestyles and Custom Audience purchases represented the smallest share of digital activation, while Behavioral and Demographic segments were more popular with advertisers.
When the U.S. rolled out the COVID-19 vaccine, consumers became more active. People were shopping in stores, returning to the gym, and taking trips that they had postponed during the height of the pandemic. Marketers turned to higher compositions of Demographic and Modeled Lifestyles to reach these audiences between April and December of 2021.
Sustained growth in Demographic audience activation could suggest a move back to tried and true audience strategies as signals continue to decline and amid evolving regulation. With economic uncertainty, marketers return to what they know. Traditional targeting methods like Demographics and Modeled Lifestyles are the baseline of many marketing strategies and we predict that we will continue to see marketers activating against these data sets.
Download our 2023 digital audience trends and predictions report to discover our full insights on how digital activation has changed and where we’re headed.
Identity: Understand the customer journey
Identity resolution is the next ingredient that you should add to your marketing mix in a recession. It should be a foundational element of every marketer’s strategy.
What is identity resolution? In the simplest terms, identity resolution is the process of matching different devices, IDs, and touchpoints back to a single person. Identity resolution expands marketers’ addressability and reach of their target audience and helps inform and measure accurate customer journeys.
Identity resolution challenges
Identity resolution faces two main challenges:
- Making the data actionable. Humans are complex. We have behaviors that change based on our current social groups and life events, we use dozens of internet-connected devices in a single day, and we exhibit distinct behaviors that happen online and in the physical world. This means marketers have mounds of data being collected from different channels based on that dynamic behavior of people, making it feel impossible to organize the data in a way that makes it feel actionable, know how it ties back to real humans, and ensure they’re doing it in a responsible and compliant way.
- Signal loss. Marketers continue to lose important signals that they’ve previously been able to rely on to inform their next move. Signals are being lost as our industry places more privacy regulations and restrictions on what can be tracked and as consumers themselves change behaviors to protect their privacy.
As consumer behaviors continue to change and signals disappear, identity resolution gets exponentially harder.
Expand addressability and reach with identity resolution
Data deprecation adversely affects identity solutions, but identity resolution should be a key ingredient in your marketing mix. Identity resolution ensures that consumers experience more relevant products, offers, and messaging – allowing you to reap the ROI benefits of hitting consumers at the perfect point in their journey.
Finding an identity resolution partner
When selecting an identity resolution partner, you should understand the data and processes that are implemented behind the scenes. It’s important to know:
- What makes up their consumer database?
- How fresh is their data?
- What identifiers can they match?
- How do they protect consumer privacy?
At Experian, we’re rooted in deterministic offline data which creates a stable foundation. We then layer in digital and behavioral touchpoints. We have decades of experience managing consumer data safely. We have insights on 250 million individuals, three billion devices, and one trillion device signals. Our databases evolve as quickly as the human behavior powering them does.
Our approach to identity resolution is open and agnostic. This means we can collect and ingest nearly all available offline and online identifiers. We can do this in all types of environments, including connected TV (CTV), mobile, and cookieless. We have two types of identity resolution:
- Offline
- Digital
This ensures we control how known and anonymous data points are connected for consumer privacy purposes.
Identity resolution in action
Our depth of data gives our clients access to see the whole human and gain the context around singular data points.
Let’s walk through an example of our identity resolution capabilities.
Challenge
Our TV media platform client needed to measure the effectiveness of an ad campaign they were running on behalf of a leading consumer electronics brand. The TV platform wanted to be able to accurately report on which consumers made a purchase after seeing the brand’s TV commercial on their platforms.
Solution
Using our digital identity resolution services, our client could capture online purchases made on the brand’s website and link them back to a consumer profile. In addition to online transactions, our client used our offline resolution services to resolve email addresses of consumers that purchased offline, using warranty registration details.
With online and offline purchase data now resolved back to an individual ID, we also performed identity resolution on viewers in their TV subscriber files that had also been exposed to the TV commercial. This allowed us to identify subscribers that had both seen the ad and purchased a product.
We provided our client with a packaged report that they could white-label and pass along to the brand.
Results
By providing this attribution reporting to the brand, the TV platform could validate the ROI spent on their platform. The brand was extremely satisfied with the results, and they transitioned the one-off TV commercial into an ongoing campaign and purchased quarterly measurement. This led to solid recurring revenue for the TV platform.
Activation: Experiment and measure the impact
The third and final ingredient to finding the right marketing mix in a recession is activation. Experimentation is the best way to determine which channels work best for your business and provide the most ROI.
Demand-side platforms (DSP), video platforms, and sell-side targeting are three important activation channels that you should consider experimenting with.
Demand-side platforms
We continue to see increased demand for environments where alternative identifiers are being transacted (like DSPs and video). Social channels are decreasing; this can be attributed to changes in privacy, security, and concerns around brand safety.
Amazon’s DSP is catching up with Google and Meta to become a top ad platform.
Video platforms
Digital video and other video channels like over-the-top (OTT) and CTV will continue to grow. Digital video will capture the most ad spend in 2023 (22.4% in 2023 vs 19.3% in 2022). Because of this, advertisers are placing bigger bets on the combination of addressable and CTV.
Sell-side targeting
Data sharing relationships will become strongest on the sell-side as we move toward consented first-party data. Ad dollars are shifting to channels that use the sell-side approach, like retail media and CTV.
Sell-side targeting enables brands to access large amounts of inventory across publishers and retailers. By getting closer to the ad inventory, advertisers can future-proof their strategies by having more access to better data signals. Direct relationships like these will be necessary as privacy regulations increase and signal loss continues.
We can help you find the right marketing mix in a recession
Now is the time to be opportunistic. Gaining share of voice during a downturn is cost-effective. Proactive marketing builds pent-up demand.
Delivering the right message in the right place at the right time means truly knowing your prospects and customers as individuals. At Experian, we bring you the highest-resolution picture of people, so you and your customers can connect with confidence.
You can turn prospects into customers with the right audience. By understanding your customers better, you can find more like them. Together we can power better results.
Find the right marketing mix
Check out our webinar, “Find the right marketing mix with rising consumer expectations.” Guest speaker, Nikhil Lai, Senior Analyst from Forrester Research, joined Experian experts Erin Haselkorn and Eden Wilbur. Watch the recording to learn:
- New data on the complexity and uncertainty facing marketers
- Consumer trends for 2023
- Recommendations on finding the right channel mix and the right consumers
Sources
- 2022 Retail Media Ad Sales Forecast, US. Forrester Research, Inc. 2022.
- Forrester Analytics Consumer Technographics® Technology, Media, and Telecom Topic Insights 1 Survey. Forrester Research, Inc. 2020.
- CMO Pulse Survey. Forrester Research, Inc. July 2021.
- Forrester’s Consumer Energy And Retail Online Survey. Forrester Research, Inc.
- People-Led Planning Solves Customer Problems to Drive Growth. Forrester Research, Inc. August 2, 2021.
Latest posts
For the past several years ad-tech defined the value of identity at the individual level; made possible by the evolution of data, technology and machine-learning. But, earlier this year COVID-19 set in motion many shifts in consumer digital behavior. The more we’ve been working and learning from home, using devices that are shared amongst an entire household, the more apparent it is that marketers need to shift their strategies to align with these changes. Did you know the average household owns eleven or more connected devices? And the longer we’ve been at home, the more these devices are shared by multiple individuals. If you’re looking for a few simple ways to evolve from an individual focused strategy to a household strategy, here’s a good place to start: Audience segmentation Traditionally, audiences are built with a narrow focus on a single user, and what known attributes about that individual or their brand engagement can be leveraged for a targeting strategy. Now that screens are being shared between multiple users in a home, how can you be sure you’re identifying them correctly, and thus, segmenting them in the right buckets for targeting? The key lies in the ability to connect those points through identity resolution. Using ad exposure from household level devices, followed by a second engagement from an individual within that household can indicate a user is a better candidate for purchase or conversion than others. So before you build audiences for targeting, you can qualify them at the household level for segmentation with more confidence. Example: An auto advertiser uses audience segments from a third party provider such as ‘auto intenders’ to target individuals with new pricing offers. They would continue retargeting these users, unaware that some are connected in the same household, and thus are probably not all in the market to actually get a new car. By bucketing users that share a common household device within this third party segment, they can hone in on which individuals are actually in-market for a car and evolve their strategy to be more effective. Targeting Retargeting, frequency capping and sequential messaging have always been meant for an individual user — the more they’re exposed to your brand in a personalized way, the more likely they are to take the desired action. But, have you considered that multiple users could have a shared initial exposure to your brand? Today, you can target a household of potential consumers on a shared device like a CTV, and employ those retargeting strategies based on that common initial exposure. Starting at the household level, means you can compare movement through the funnel between different individuals in that household, and tailor your targeting accordingly. Perhaps you realize only one person in that household will convert and you tailor messaging to them more frequently, while confidently suppressing the other individuals. Example: a CPG brand uses OTT advertising, but doesn’t incorporate it within their sequential strategy, because they consider it just a ‘brand awareness’ opportunity. By using OTT more strategically as a household level engagement, it can reveal which individuals within a household are more favorable towards a brand further down the funnel. So, you can spend impressions targeting those users, rather than wasting impressions on multiple individuals within the household. Measurement Measurement and attribution are imperative to understanding the path to purchase and making strategies more efficient over time. Often that efficiency involves adding or removing devices and channels from a targeting strategy based on their contribution to an action or conversion by an individual. This year we’re seeing addressable TV devices explode in use, which are shared at the household level. Even desktop computers are being used by more people in the home due to COVID-19. So, assuming a linear path of attribution by an individual is missing the full picture. Identity resolution can help you understand where messaging was more effective for some users in the household than others, and leverage that insight to continue more effective strategies in the future. Example: Without a household view, a direct-to-consumer brand would assume all interactions from one device would be coming from a single individual, and that could create a higher cost-per analysis. By incorporating the household level devices into attribution models, they can find efficiencies between touch points of multiple users, and learn how those split off into individual paths to conversion. Not only can this DTC create a more effective model, but they can use that model to create cost efficiencies in the future. Get started with The Tapad Graph For personalized consultation on the value and benefits of The Tapad Graph for your business, email Sales@tapad.com today!
QSRs have emerged as superheroes during the pandemic, creating an entirely different consumer experience in record time by offering contactless delivery, curbside pick-up, and other innovations that have allowed them to stay open and operational when so many other businesses have shuttered. But as many states are still moving through their phased re-opening plans and more options become available to consumers, QSRs are challenged with keeping their momentum going. How can they continue to build on their success? The key is activation. Advertising on the right channels at the right time. The more QSRs can offer experiences that leverage the power of data to better speak to their customers and address their unique needs, the better chance they have of continuing to succeed in these unwieldy times. As we move into the fall and winter, and as more and more people look to QSR’s to help with their meal plans, consider the following: 1. Use data to create a more robust loyalty program. There’s no question consumers have plenty of QSRs to choose from and using a loyalty program is an excellent way to ensure they continue to view you as a preferred dining destination. But you might be surprised to learn how much of a difference it can make to your bottom line. PYMNTS reported that in 2019, Starbucks President and CEO Kevin Johnson shared how the company’s active mobile app rewards membership grew to 16.8 million users, which comprised 41% of sales in U.S. stores. The PYMNTS Restaurant Readiness Index also shows that 79.5% of QSR customers and 47.5% of QSR managers see loyalty programs as a feature that is important to a restaurant’s success. Now is a great time to review your loyalty program (or create a new one) and see if you can expand it to offer more perks, thereby enticing more customer interaction. A strong loyalty program should include a combination of your own customer data, enriched with third-party data for deeper customer insights, such as behavior, lifestyle and interests. 2. Make it easy for customers to order, purchase and pick-up with mobile ordering. Mobile ordering is no longer the wave of the future—it’s part of the new now. PYMNTS reported that Dunkin’ Brands CEO Dave Hoffmann noted on-the-go ordering experienced an average weekly sales increase of 25% year over year—and this growth was especially key in locations without a drive-through. For customers who want an easy option that allows them to order, pay and pick-up at curbside, mobile ordering is the ultimate in simplicity, and your data can help you determine who is most primed to take advantage of this option so you can push it directly to them. 3. Offer demographic and location-specific promos. The power of data can help you know a lot about your customers, from age and occupation to whether or not they have a family, how they spend their time, and how much of that time is spent at your competitor’s restaurant. This data can help you craft promotions that can speak directly to your consumer, ensure you’re advertising on the channels they prefer and frequent and get them in your door. When you know you cater to parents who are tired of a long day of homeschooling and work Zoom meetings, you can tailor and execute a promo campaign that speaks directly to their needs and deliver it to their preferred channel, encouraging them to skip cooking and order from you instead. Or maybe you have locations that are close to college campuses, allowing you to entice students with a two-for-one deal they just can’t pass up. And as offices start the slow process of opening back up, there’s an opportunity to welcome workers back to the neighborhood with a special curbside or delivery pick-up deal. 4. Ensure your customer knows your brand values. More and more, consumers are becoming conscious of who they spend their money with and why. As Longitude Design points out, this is something Ben & Jerry’s does exceptionally well, and their value message is spread across everything the brand does, from their scoop shops to their store-bought pints to their company-branded events. This is your opportunity to share what you value as a company and a brand, and how it aligns with your consumer’s lifestyle. Is your food sustainably sourced? Is your packaging environmentally friendly? Be transparent about your supply chain, share how you care for your employees, give some insight into the prep process behind your food, as these insights will help your consumer gain trust in you, which in turn creates loyalty. Social media is a great way to get the word out about your value-based operational initiatives. To learn more about how you can use data to build on and enhance the new customer QSR experience, visit our Restaurant Marketing Solutions page.
Healthcare marketers: Open enrollment starts November 1st. Are you ready? It’s that time of year again—time to promote your insurance plans to existing and potential members ahead of open enrollment. But do you know your members beyond the basics? Sure, you know their name, address, phone number and email address, but do you know what communication channels they prefer? Do you know their lifestyle, behaviors and interests? In order for member communications to be effective, they need to be data-driven—first and foremost. The problem is, the industry is fragmented—and so is its data. With individuals covered by both private and public insurance plans—many payers don’t have access to a complete and accurate view of members and their respective data. And as the industry continues to move toward digital transformation and embraces automation, organizations that aren’t leveraging data insights are in danger of missing out on the opportunity to create a more solid connection with members. Partnering with a third-party data provider like Experian to enrich your first-party data is the answer. With a reliable source of data, health plans can more easily identify members, deduplicate their profiles, and leverage accurate contact information and communicate on a personal, relevant, empathetic level. Here are 5 ways to attract new members and retain existing members: 1. Create more accurate personas for marketing needs: Whether we use your data or combine yours with ours, you can gain stronger member analysis for segmentation and modeling that can help you maintain current relationships or expand your outreach to acquire new members—and ensure the loyalty of both categories. 2. Ensure the accuracy of member data: With Experian’s identity and data solutions, you can rest assured that your member database is accurate and up to date to maximize contact rates and minimize errors. 3. Build strong communication channels with your members: Optimize your advertising efforts through preferred channels—and identify those communication channels—to effectively connect with your customers using our data identifying their lifestyle, interests, behaviors and more. 4. Understand more about your members’ needs and behaviors: We’ll help you keep your members healthy. What do your members do, need, prefer? How much can they afford for healthcare? How do they live? You could guess, or you can let unbiased data guide your decisions so you can better assist your members in their health care goals. 5. Create a better member experience: With data and insights, Experian can give you the information you need to enable a consistent member experience, allowing you to match your products in a way that complements your member’s needs and lifestyle. Experian cuts through the data overload by focusing on data that matters and drives actionable decisions. With Experian on your side, you’ll be able to leverage the largest consumer database. We’re here to help you to manage a wide range of marketing needs, including measuring your campaign impact and determining the best messages to use to connect with your audience. We can also assist with securely managing your data in a way that helps to ensure the accuracy of that data to give you the most up-to-date picture of your current member database. Ready to learn more about our healthcare marketing solutions for open enrollment? Complete our online form and an Experian Marketing Services representative will reach out to you soon.