The AdTech industry is undergoing rapid changes as it adjusts to the impacts of data deprecation and ever-changing privacy regulations. At the same time, there are fears of a potential economic downturn. How should you handle marketing in a recession? What should your marketing mix look like? In this blog post, we’ll cover how to navigate this uncertainty and three essential ingredients for your marketing mix.
First, we’ll look at the complexity and uncertainty facing marketers.
Turbulence with Twitter
After Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover in October 2022, half of Twitter’s top 100 advertisers left the platform and started to seek out alternatives.
The retail media boom
In the next four years, Forrester Research projects that U.S. retail media ad sales will double to reach 85 billion by 2026.1
Most of this growth is catalyzed by CPG and consumer electronic brands that have a scarcity of zero- and first-party data; they need more media closer to the point of purchase, especially as CFOs are scrutinizing budgets.
Consumption continues to fragment
It’s becoming harder than ever to reach the right person, at the right time, predict their intent, and get a 360-degree view of your customer.2
Data deprecation is top of mind
According to Forrester Research, updating their data strategy to address data deprecation is the number one priority for marketers. Addressing data deprecation is also a priority for consumers, who increasingly feel that audience targeting is more intrusive than beneficial.3
Data deprecation affects identity solutions
Third-party data and mobile ad IDs (MAIDs) are the connective tissue for identity solutions. As we see those signals go away, there are fewer linkages to resolve identity and it’s leading to a rise in fragmented, duplicated, and shallow identity.
Recession fears
In addition to everything happening in AdTech, there are also fears of a possible recession. According to Forrester, 40% of Gen Z and 41% of Millennials believe fears of an upcoming recession are greatly exaggerated. On the other hand, only 24% of Gen X and 12% of Baby Boomers agree.4
Navigate uncertainty and marketing in a recession
With the current macroeconomic conditions, data deprecation, and fragmented consumption in mind, what should your strategy look like for marketing in a recession? Forrester recommends three strategies:
- People-led planning
- Test creative
- Optimize for marginal costs
People-led planning
Planning doesn’t have to be fragmented. Map offline and online media exposures to consumer decision journeys. Strategies like lifetime value (LTV) driven audience segmentation to correlate awareness at top of the funnel layered with demand generation exposures harvested later in the funnel. To do this, it’s crucial to work with providers that give you visibility into the audience buyer’s journey to awareness, intent, consideration, and purchase, all the way through to loyalty.5
Test creative
Make your creative work harder for you. Apply the same rigor with your creative that you applied to segmentation. Utilize multivariate testing to identify creative that is winning or losing. When you understand how each variable performs, you can scale the variables with creative optimization to have a material impact on performance.
Optimize for marginal costs
Optimize for marginal costs of acquisition, not just the average. Adjust for incrementality – what is the cost to acquire one more customer, rather than the average cost of acquisition.
Find the right marketing mix in a recession
With these changes in mind, how can you find the right marketing mix in a recession? We can show you the way.
You can create the right marketing mix with three key ingredients:
- Audiences
- Identity
- Activation
Let’s explore each ingredient to start you down the path toward marketing campaign success.
Audiences: Know your customer
The first ingredient to add to your marketing mix in a recession is your audience. Knowing your customer is key to targeting the right audiences successfully. Data-driven targeting can help you find your best audiences based on demographics, modeled lifestyles, and behaviors to improve marketing campaign performance.
Not sure where to start when it comes to developing your target audience strategy? We can help. We track digital usage of our data used by advertisers and identified the top four digital audiences that advertisers purchased over the last four years.
Four digital audiences to consider
Marketing strategies are only as strong as the data foundation they’re built on. The top four digital audiences that advertisers are purchasing from Experian include:
- Demographics
- Behavioral
- Modeled Lifestyles
- Custom Audiences
Demographics
Examples include age, gender, relationship status, living situation, life experience, and employment.
Behavioral
This audience allows marketers to identify households that are more likely to engage in certain activities or belong to certain groups.
Modeled Lifestyles
Experian’s Mosaic® USA segmentation. This is a household-based consumer lifestyle segmentation system that classifies all U.S. households and neighborhoods into 71 unique types and 19 overarching groups, providing a 360-degree view of consumers’ choices, preferences, and habits.
Custom Audiences
This is an audience blended from multiple sources or derived from first-party look-alike modeling.
Changes in digital audience strategies
Over the last four years, Modeled Lifestyles and Custom Audience purchases represented the smallest share of digital activation, while Behavioral and Demographic segments were more popular with advertisers.
When the U.S. rolled out the COVID-19 vaccine, consumers became more active. People were shopping in stores, returning to the gym, and taking trips that they had postponed during the height of the pandemic. Marketers turned to higher compositions of Demographic and Modeled Lifestyles to reach these audiences between April and December of 2021.
Sustained growth in Demographic audience activation could suggest a move back to tried and true audience strategies as signals continue to decline and amid evolving regulation. With economic uncertainty, marketers return to what they know. Traditional targeting methods like Demographics and Modeled Lifestyles are the baseline of many marketing strategies and we predict that we will continue to see marketers activating against these data sets.
Download our 2023 digital audience trends and predictions report to discover our full insights on how digital activation has changed and where we’re headed.
Identity: Understand the customer journey
Identity resolution is the next ingredient that you should add to your marketing mix in a recession. It should be a foundational element of every marketer’s strategy.
What is identity resolution? In the simplest terms, identity resolution is the process of matching different devices, IDs, and touchpoints back to a single person. Identity resolution expands marketers’ addressability and reach of their target audience and helps inform and measure accurate customer journeys.
Identity resolution challenges
Identity resolution faces two main challenges:
- Making the data actionable. Humans are complex. We have behaviors that change based on our current social groups and life events, we use dozens of internet-connected devices in a single day, and we exhibit distinct behaviors that happen online and in the physical world. This means marketers have mounds of data being collected from different channels based on that dynamic behavior of people, making it feel impossible to organize the data in a way that makes it feel actionable, know how it ties back to real humans, and ensure they’re doing it in a responsible and compliant way.
- Signal loss. Marketers continue to lose important signals that they’ve previously been able to rely on to inform their next move. Signals are being lost as our industry places more privacy regulations and restrictions on what can be tracked and as consumers themselves change behaviors to protect their privacy.
As consumer behaviors continue to change and signals disappear, identity resolution gets exponentially harder.
Expand addressability and reach with identity resolution
Data deprecation adversely affects identity solutions, but identity resolution should be a key ingredient in your marketing mix. Identity resolution ensures that consumers experience more relevant products, offers, and messaging – allowing you to reap the ROI benefits of hitting consumers at the perfect point in their journey.
Finding an identity resolution partner
When selecting an identity resolution partner, you should understand the data and processes that are implemented behind the scenes. It’s important to know:
- What makes up their consumer database?
- How fresh is their data?
- What identifiers can they match?
- How do they protect consumer privacy?
At Experian, we’re rooted in deterministic offline data which creates a stable foundation. We then layer in digital and behavioral touchpoints. We have decades of experience managing consumer data safely. We have insights on 250 million individuals, three billion devices, and one trillion device signals. Our databases evolve as quickly as the human behavior powering them does.
Our approach to identity resolution is open and agnostic. This means we can collect and ingest nearly all available offline and online identifiers. We can do this in all types of environments, including connected TV (CTV), mobile, and cookieless. We have two types of identity resolution:
- Offline
- Digital
This ensures we control how known and anonymous data points are connected for consumer privacy purposes.
Identity resolution in action
Our depth of data gives our clients access to see the whole human and gain the context around singular data points.
Let’s walk through an example of our identity resolution capabilities.
Challenge
Our TV media platform client needed to measure the effectiveness of an ad campaign they were running on behalf of a leading consumer electronics brand. The TV platform wanted to be able to accurately report on which consumers made a purchase after seeing the brand’s TV commercial on their platforms.
Solution
Using our digital identity resolution services, our client could capture online purchases made on the brand’s website and link them back to a consumer profile. In addition to online transactions, our client used our offline resolution services to resolve email addresses of consumers that purchased offline, using warranty registration details.
With online and offline purchase data now resolved back to an individual ID, we also performed identity resolution on viewers in their TV subscriber files that had also been exposed to the TV commercial. This allowed us to identify subscribers that had both seen the ad and purchased a product.
We provided our client with a packaged report that they could white-label and pass along to the brand.
Results
By providing this attribution reporting to the brand, the TV platform could validate the ROI spent on their platform. The brand was extremely satisfied with the results, and they transitioned the one-off TV commercial into an ongoing campaign and purchased quarterly measurement. This led to solid recurring revenue for the TV platform.
Activation: Experiment and measure the impact
The third and final ingredient to finding the right marketing mix in a recession is activation. Experimentation is the best way to determine which channels work best for your business and provide the most ROI.
Demand-side platforms (DSP), video platforms, and sell-side targeting are three important activation channels that you should consider experimenting with.
Demand-side platforms
We continue to see increased demand for environments where alternative identifiers are being transacted (like DSPs and video). Social channels are decreasing; this can be attributed to changes in privacy, security, and concerns around brand safety.
Amazon’s DSP is catching up with Google and Meta to become a top ad platform.
Video platforms
Digital video and other video channels like over-the-top (OTT) and CTV will continue to grow. Digital video will capture the most ad spend in 2023 (22.4% in 2023 vs 19.3% in 2022). Because of this, advertisers are placing bigger bets on the combination of addressable and CTV.
Sell-side targeting
Data sharing relationships will become strongest on the sell-side as we move toward consented first-party data. Ad dollars are shifting to channels that use the sell-side approach, like retail media and CTV.
Sell-side targeting enables brands to access large amounts of inventory across publishers and retailers. By getting closer to the ad inventory, advertisers can future-proof their strategies by having more access to better data signals. Direct relationships like these will be necessary as privacy regulations increase and signal loss continues.
We can help you find the right marketing mix in a recession
Now is the time to be opportunistic. Gaining share of voice during a downturn is cost-effective. Proactive marketing builds pent-up demand.
Delivering the right message in the right place at the right time means truly knowing your prospects and customers as individuals. At Experian, we bring you the highest-resolution picture of people, so you and your customers can connect with confidence.
You can turn prospects into customers with the right audience. By understanding your customers better, you can find more like them. Together we can power better results.
Find the right marketing mix
Check out our webinar, “Find the right marketing mix with rising consumer expectations.” Guest speaker, Nikhil Lai, Senior Analyst from Forrester Research, joined Experian experts Erin Haselkorn and Eden Wilbur. Watch the recording to learn:
- New data on the complexity and uncertainty facing marketers
- Consumer trends for 2023
- Recommendations on finding the right channel mix and the right consumers
Sources
- 2022 Retail Media Ad Sales Forecast, US. Forrester Research, Inc. 2022.
- Forrester Analytics Consumer Technographics® Technology, Media, and Telecom Topic Insights 1 Survey. Forrester Research, Inc. 2020.
- CMO Pulse Survey. Forrester Research, Inc. July 2021.
- Forrester’s Consumer Energy And Retail Online Survey. Forrester Research, Inc.
- People-Led Planning Solves Customer Problems to Drive Growth. Forrester Research, Inc. August 2, 2021.
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Many may remain apprehensive about safety and continue to “dine at a distance” until they’re confident that they can remain healthy, or until a successful vaccine goes into use. Even as states begin their phased re-opening plans, many continue to work from home—which has greatly affected both dine-in and QSR venues. Those who saw a robust lunchtime crowd probably saw a drop-off while business-based locals shifted their office plans. However, new opportunities have emerged for restaurants to reach out to their regular lunch crowd to offer delivery or attract a whole new lunch crowd who may not have thought to order from them before. Between the challenges of a post-pandemic world, a shifting of diner priority, and an uncertain future facing the restaurant world, it’s now more important than ever before to leverage an intelligent, data-driven marketing strategy to ensure your campaigns reach the right consumers, and also attract new customers to expand your customer base over time. All of this can be done using the power of data, but having the right data is key to making the most of your marketing efforts. As you’re crafting your current marketing plans, it’s important to look at all the variables you need to address to create more targeted messaging, thus helping you zero in on your most desired consumer base. The first thing to consider is, how well do you know your guests, and what do you know about them? If you have no insight into their dining habits or preferences, it will be challenging to come up with messaging that will speak to them. But with the right data, you can discover if they frequent your competitor’s locations (and if so, how often), which apps they’re using to order food, which days of the week, and even which meals they are most likely to order. You can also use this information to better understand how often you factor into your customer’s dining plans by understanding if they are beginning to commute again, or continuing to work from home, and if the latter, do they live near one of your locations. Data can also help you discover more about who they are, so you can even further tailor your messaging to their needs. Let’s say your target customer is married with children. Addressing their busy life as a professional and a parent, and sharing how you can ease the burden of dinnertime to make life easier for them, may be exactly the kind of message of support they need to encourage them to reach out to you. Using data based on demographics, lifestyle, behavior, attitudinal and mobile location data can help you cook up a marketing strategy with precision and success, resulting in more diners knocking on your door (or at least, calling for take-out). 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2020 has been a year of change and challenges for businesses and consumers alike. With the global pandemic, we have seen stay at home orders put in place, a shift to work from home for many, major events canceled, schools shifted to online format, graduations and other end-of-year activities canceled, and more. As we move through the phases of reopening, everyone is figuring out how to navigate the ‘new normal’ in the wake of new safety requirements, businesses are working to determine what their day-to-day operations will look like as they reopen. The changing times have implications on how consumers act, what and how they purchase, and how they manage their daily lives. With these changing times, consumers are quickly adapting their lifestyles which impacts the choices they make on how they shop, bank and provide for their families. Businesses across the United States are trying to understand how consumers are feeling during this time and how that might correlate with their visitation patterns. Using Experian’s Mobile Location data, coupled with Consumer Sentiment data, we looked at foot traffic and sentiment trends in the retail space throughout the pandemic. As you can see from the chart, there has been a steady increase in household visits to retail locations since March that correlates with the rise in sentiment. Note the differences in visitation patterns across the regions. You can see some foot traffic spikes, which correlate to reopening phases in several states during the week of May 4th and Memorial Day weekend. However, you see a lower average of foot traffic in the Northeast U.S. where reopening phases are rolling out at a slower pace. It is going to be essential for businesses to craft marketing strategies on a regional level as guidelines for reopening are the state-level. This means that a business’s consumers look different based on where they are located and might require more targeted and sensitive messaging. For example, using Experian’s Mosaic segmentation, we further delved into what consumers look like today by analyzing those Mosaics who have the most positive change in regard to the pandemic, versus those that had the most negative. You can see in the charts that there is a significant difference between the Mosaics trending positively versus those trending negatively. Consumer segments have drastically different sentiment, and foot traffic patterns and understanding how your consumers are feeling and where they are shopping will help improve your ROI. Having a comprehensive and targeted marketing plan will be essential for companies as they navigate the intricacies of reopening. Experian’s Reopening Package allows brands to take a phased approach to better understand and reach both new and existing customers through targeting, analytics and key insights. Companies can analyze their consumers’ sentiments and visitation patterns during the pandemic, segmented by Experian Mosaic® lifestyle segmentation group. Businesses can then take those insights and apply them to other models, or create their own models, to build out and run effective marketing campaigns that target current and prospective customers. A successful long-term marketing strategy needs to be data-driven, leveraging data and analytics to help craft targeted messaging. We can see that consumers want to shop again – foot traffic patterns appear to have increased since June, and sentiment is up – now it is necessary to understand where your customers fit into the spectrum. Missed our recent webinar, How COVID-19 Has Shaped Consumer Behavior for Retailers? Access the on demand version here.
Overview Chartable leverages The Tapad Graph to improve cross-device attribution rates and remove non-addressable IPs for clients. Challenge Chartable needs to differentiate between consumer and potential business IP addresses to provide accurate household modeling and reduce excess data for their customers. Podcasting generally only has access to IP addresses as a form of digital ID which limits its ability to connect activity to individuals and extend it across all devices. The Tapad + Experian solution Using Tapad, now a part of Experian, Chartable is able to cut through the noise of IP data and discard any addresses deemed a shared IP or business. Then, Tapad + Experian connects individual users to their other digital IDs and users in their household; creating a richer attribution model for Chartable customers. Increase in podcast attribution rates Get started with The Tapad Graph For personalized consultation on the value and benefits of The Tapad Graph for your business, email Sales@tapad.com today!