The AdTech industry is undergoing rapid changes as it adjusts to the impacts of data deprecation and ever-changing privacy regulations. At the same time, there are fears of a potential economic downturn. How should you handle marketing in a recession? What should your marketing mix look like? In this blog post, we’ll cover how to navigate this uncertainty and three essential ingredients for your marketing mix.
First, we’ll look at the complexity and uncertainty facing marketers.
Turbulence with Twitter
After Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover in October 2022, half of Twitter’s top 100 advertisers left the platform and started to seek out alternatives.
The retail media boom
In the next four years, Forrester Research projects that U.S. retail media ad sales will double to reach 85 billion by 2026.1
Most of this growth is catalyzed by CPG and consumer electronic brands that have a scarcity of zero- and first-party data; they need more media closer to the point of purchase, especially as CFOs are scrutinizing budgets.
Consumption continues to fragment
It’s becoming harder than ever to reach the right person, at the right time, predict their intent, and get a 360-degree view of your customer.2
Data deprecation is top of mind
According to Forrester Research, updating their data strategy to address data deprecation is the number one priority for marketers. Addressing data deprecation is also a priority for consumers, who increasingly feel that audience targeting is more intrusive than beneficial.3
Data deprecation affects identity solutions
Third-party data and mobile ad IDs (MAIDs) are the connective tissue for identity solutions. As we see those signals go away, there are fewer linkages to resolve identity and it’s leading to a rise in fragmented, duplicated, and shallow identity.
Recession fears
In addition to everything happening in AdTech, there are also fears of a possible recession. According to Forrester, 40% of Gen Z and 41% of Millennials believe fears of an upcoming recession are greatly exaggerated. On the other hand, only 24% of Gen X and 12% of Baby Boomers agree.4
Navigate uncertainty and marketing in a recession
With the current macroeconomic conditions, data deprecation, and fragmented consumption in mind, what should your strategy look like for marketing in a recession? Forrester recommends three strategies:
- People-led planning
- Test creative
- Optimize for marginal costs
People-led planning
Planning doesn’t have to be fragmented. Map offline and online media exposures to consumer decision journeys. Strategies like lifetime value (LTV) driven audience segmentation to correlate awareness at top of the funnel layered with demand generation exposures harvested later in the funnel. To do this, it’s crucial to work with providers that give you visibility into the audience buyer’s journey to awareness, intent, consideration, and purchase, all the way through to loyalty.5
Test creative
Make your creative work harder for you. Apply the same rigor with your creative that you applied to segmentation. Utilize multivariate testing to identify creative that is winning or losing. When you understand how each variable performs, you can scale the variables with creative optimization to have a material impact on performance.
Optimize for marginal costs
Optimize for marginal costs of acquisition, not just the average. Adjust for incrementality – what is the cost to acquire one more customer, rather than the average cost of acquisition.
Find the right marketing mix in a recession
With these changes in mind, how can you find the right marketing mix in a recession? We can show you the way.
You can create the right marketing mix with three key ingredients:
- Audiences
- Identity
- Activation
Let’s explore each ingredient to start you down the path toward marketing campaign success.
Audiences: Know your customer
The first ingredient to add to your marketing mix in a recession is your audience. Knowing your customer is key to targeting the right audiences successfully. Data-driven targeting can help you find your best audiences based on demographics, modeled lifestyles, and behaviors to improve marketing campaign performance.
Not sure where to start when it comes to developing your target audience strategy? We can help. We track digital usage of our data used by advertisers and identified the top four digital audiences that advertisers purchased over the last four years.
Four digital audiences to consider
Marketing strategies are only as strong as the data foundation they’re built on. The top four digital audiences that advertisers are purchasing from Experian include:
- Demographics
- Behavioral
- Modeled Lifestyles
- Custom Audiences
Demographics
Examples include age, gender, relationship status, living situation, life experience, and employment.
Behavioral
This audience allows marketers to identify households that are more likely to engage in certain activities or belong to certain groups.
Modeled Lifestyles
Experian’s Mosaic® USA segmentation. This is a household-based consumer lifestyle segmentation system that classifies all U.S. households and neighborhoods into 71 unique types and 19 overarching groups, providing a 360-degree view of consumers’ choices, preferences, and habits.
Custom Audiences
This is an audience blended from multiple sources or derived from first-party look-alike modeling.
Changes in digital audience strategies
Over the last four years, Modeled Lifestyles and Custom Audience purchases represented the smallest share of digital activation, while Behavioral and Demographic segments were more popular with advertisers.
When the U.S. rolled out the COVID-19 vaccine, consumers became more active. People were shopping in stores, returning to the gym, and taking trips that they had postponed during the height of the pandemic. Marketers turned to higher compositions of Demographic and Modeled Lifestyles to reach these audiences between April and December of 2021.
Sustained growth in Demographic audience activation could suggest a move back to tried and true audience strategies as signals continue to decline and amid evolving regulation. With economic uncertainty, marketers return to what they know. Traditional targeting methods like Demographics and Modeled Lifestyles are the baseline of many marketing strategies and we predict that we will continue to see marketers activating against these data sets.
Download our 2023 digital audience trends and predictions report to discover our full insights on how digital activation has changed and where we’re headed.
Identity: Understand the customer journey
Identity resolution is the next ingredient that you should add to your marketing mix in a recession. It should be a foundational element of every marketer’s strategy.
What is identity resolution? In the simplest terms, identity resolution is the process of matching different devices, IDs, and touchpoints back to a single person. Identity resolution expands marketers’ addressability and reach of their target audience and helps inform and measure accurate customer journeys.
Identity resolution challenges
Identity resolution faces two main challenges:
- Making the data actionable. Humans are complex. We have behaviors that change based on our current social groups and life events, we use dozens of internet-connected devices in a single day, and we exhibit distinct behaviors that happen online and in the physical world. This means marketers have mounds of data being collected from different channels based on that dynamic behavior of people, making it feel impossible to organize the data in a way that makes it feel actionable, know how it ties back to real humans, and ensure they’re doing it in a responsible and compliant way.
- Signal loss. Marketers continue to lose important signals that they’ve previously been able to rely on to inform their next move. Signals are being lost as our industry places more privacy regulations and restrictions on what can be tracked and as consumers themselves change behaviors to protect their privacy.
As consumer behaviors continue to change and signals disappear, identity resolution gets exponentially harder.
Expand addressability and reach with identity resolution
Data deprecation adversely affects identity solutions, but identity resolution should be a key ingredient in your marketing mix. Identity resolution ensures that consumers experience more relevant products, offers, and messaging – allowing you to reap the ROI benefits of hitting consumers at the perfect point in their journey.
Finding an identity resolution partner
When selecting an identity resolution partner, you should understand the data and processes that are implemented behind the scenes. It’s important to know:
- What makes up their consumer database?
- How fresh is their data?
- What identifiers can they match?
- How do they protect consumer privacy?
At Experian, we’re rooted in deterministic offline data which creates a stable foundation. We then layer in digital and behavioral touchpoints. We have decades of experience managing consumer data safely. We have insights on 250 million individuals, three billion devices, and one trillion device signals. Our databases evolve as quickly as the human behavior powering them does.
Our approach to identity resolution is open and agnostic. This means we can collect and ingest nearly all available offline and online identifiers. We can do this in all types of environments, including connected TV (CTV), mobile, and cookieless. We have two types of identity resolution:
- Offline
- Digital
This ensures we control how known and anonymous data points are connected for consumer privacy purposes.
Identity resolution in action
Our depth of data gives our clients access to see the whole human and gain the context around singular data points.
Let’s walk through an example of our identity resolution capabilities.
Challenge
Our TV media platform client needed to measure the effectiveness of an ad campaign they were running on behalf of a leading consumer electronics brand. The TV platform wanted to be able to accurately report on which consumers made a purchase after seeing the brand’s TV commercial on their platforms.
Solution
Using our digital identity resolution services, our client could capture online purchases made on the brand’s website and link them back to a consumer profile. In addition to online transactions, our client used our offline resolution services to resolve email addresses of consumers that purchased offline, using warranty registration details.
With online and offline purchase data now resolved back to an individual ID, we also performed identity resolution on viewers in their TV subscriber files that had also been exposed to the TV commercial. This allowed us to identify subscribers that had both seen the ad and purchased a product.
We provided our client with a packaged report that they could white-label and pass along to the brand.
Results
By providing this attribution reporting to the brand, the TV platform could validate the ROI spent on their platform. The brand was extremely satisfied with the results, and they transitioned the one-off TV commercial into an ongoing campaign and purchased quarterly measurement. This led to solid recurring revenue for the TV platform.
Activation: Experiment and measure the impact
The third and final ingredient to finding the right marketing mix in a recession is activation. Experimentation is the best way to determine which channels work best for your business and provide the most ROI.
Demand-side platforms (DSP), video platforms, and sell-side targeting are three important activation channels that you should consider experimenting with.
Demand-side platforms
We continue to see increased demand for environments where alternative identifiers are being transacted (like DSPs and video). Social channels are decreasing; this can be attributed to changes in privacy, security, and concerns around brand safety.
Amazon’s DSP is catching up with Google and Meta to become a top ad platform.
Video platforms
Digital video and other video channels like over-the-top (OTT) and CTV will continue to grow. Digital video will capture the most ad spend in 2023 (22.4% in 2023 vs 19.3% in 2022). Because of this, advertisers are placing bigger bets on the combination of addressable and CTV.
Sell-side targeting
Data sharing relationships will become strongest on the sell-side as we move toward consented first-party data. Ad dollars are shifting to channels that use the sell-side approach, like retail media and CTV.
Sell-side targeting enables brands to access large amounts of inventory across publishers and retailers. By getting closer to the ad inventory, advertisers can future-proof their strategies by having more access to better data signals. Direct relationships like these will be necessary as privacy regulations increase and signal loss continues.
We can help you find the right marketing mix in a recession
Now is the time to be opportunistic. Gaining share of voice during a downturn is cost-effective. Proactive marketing builds pent-up demand.
Delivering the right message in the right place at the right time means truly knowing your prospects and customers as individuals. At Experian, we bring you the highest-resolution picture of people, so you and your customers can connect with confidence.
You can turn prospects into customers with the right audience. By understanding your customers better, you can find more like them. Together we can power better results.
Find the right marketing mix
Check out our webinar, “Find the right marketing mix with rising consumer expectations.” Guest speaker, Nikhil Lai, Senior Analyst from Forrester Research, joined Experian experts Erin Haselkorn and Eden Wilbur. Watch the recording to learn:
- New data on the complexity and uncertainty facing marketers
- Consumer trends for 2023
- Recommendations on finding the right channel mix and the right consumers
Sources
- 2022 Retail Media Ad Sales Forecast, US. Forrester Research, Inc. 2022.
- Forrester Analytics Consumer Technographics® Technology, Media, and Telecom Topic Insights 1 Survey. Forrester Research, Inc. 2020.
- CMO Pulse Survey. Forrester Research, Inc. July 2021.
- Forrester’s Consumer Energy And Retail Online Survey. Forrester Research, Inc.
- People-Led Planning Solves Customer Problems to Drive Growth. Forrester Research, Inc. August 2, 2021.
Latest posts
In case you missed it, Facebook recently announced that it would begin supporting animated GIF images and GIF-fanatics everywhere went: The decision by Facebook, which is rather late to the GIF party given that animated GIFs are already commonly used on sites like Tumblr, Reddit, Twitter, Imgur, BuzzFeed and more, virtually guarantees that animated GIFs will soon be commonplace (like it or not) for nearly everyone. It may even give Facebook an opportunity to re-engage Millennials who already frequently communicate using stickers, emoji, emoticons and animated GIFs. To make use of the new feature right away, Facebook users will need to paste a link to an existing GIF into their status update box. Users who have the “auto-play” setting activated will see GIFs posted by their Facebook friends looping through the animation automatically as they scroll through their news feed or a friend’s timeline. For the time being, at least, users are not allowed to upload GIFs to Facebook. While Facebook has not yet allowed animated GIFs to be used by Page operators, there’s still a huge opportunity for marketers in this move. That’s because marketers can still create their own clever animated GIFs hosted away from Facebook either on their own website or through partnerships with sites like Giphy — which already has a Facebook Messenger add-on. They can then encourage consumers to say what’s on their mind — via Facebook, text/chat, Twitter, etc. — using their branded animated GIFs instead of words. Subway, for instance, has a set of GIFs in Giphy that allow consumers to say they’re hungry by sending GIFs of animated sub sandwiches and people eating them to others. And Experian Marketing Services found that users of animated GIFs are hungry for branded content. In fact, they’re already seeking out branded GIFs to share in this way. Media and entertainment brands, of course, have a natural play in the animated GIF space since they already have content developed. They merely need to convert it into a few seconds of animation and fans of the show, movie, game, musician, etc. will take it and run. But even for marketers who don’t have existing content, animated GIFs present an option for producing rich (if not always the highest quality), engaging visual content that’s more affordable than video but a step up from fixed images. They also present on-the-go consumers who are increasingly looking for shorter more “snackable” content with a quick way to engage with a brand when they don’t have the time or interest in watching an actual video. To help marketers test the waters and create relevant GIFs, we looked at online search variations of “GIF” during the 12 weeks ending May 30, 2015 using our Hitwise® online intelligence platform. Some of the top variations and a few popular GIFs in each category are below. Funny GIFs: Animated GIFs are often used to put a smile on people’s face, so it’s no wonder that “funny” GIFs are the most commonly sought out. Babies and cats feature prominently in this category. Reaction GIFs: Among users, animated GIFs are a natural way to react to something a friend has said or shared. Reactions can run the gamut of emotions from “meh” to “oh no you didn’t.” Happy Birthday GIFs: Want your Happy Birthday wishes to be memorable and unique. Don’t say it with words; say it with an animated GIF! Does your brand play a role in helping people celebrate their birthday? Then why not help people say it as well. Crying GIFs: That teary emoji can only express so much emotional depth. Show you know how someone really feels with a crying animated GIF instead. Mind blown GIFs: Saying “OMG” is so yesterday. Why would anyone just tell someone they blew your mind when they can show them? No wonder “mind blown” animated GIFs are among the most commonly sought out. Source: Experian Marketing Services It’s still early days for animated GIFs in Facebook, but the opening of the door by the social media giant could prove to be the tipping point in the mass adoption of this medium that lies somewhere between an image and a video. In fact, animated GIFs may eventually prove so popular that consumers may come to expect and prefer them over non-animated content. For more information about how Experian Marketing Services can provide marketers with insights into the types of GIFs consumers are looking for, click here.
As part of our ongoing series which focuses on consumer and marketing trends around major holidays throughout the year, we’ve just released the Father’s Day Hot Sheet. Father’s Day gift-related searches Now that Mother’s Day has come and gone, consumers will be shifting their focus to dad. According to Experian Marketing Services’ Hitwise® online intelligence tool, searches for “Father’s Day” typically start to pop up on Mother’s Day. And searches for “Father’s Day gifts” tend to focus on affordable gift ideas that are personalized, unique and often handmade. In fact, two of the top variations of Father’s Day gift-related searches from 2014 were for “DIY” and “homemade” gifts. While many shoppers wanted the “best” gift for dad, others simply wanted something “cheap” or “last minute.” Finding a gift that dad will appreciate means looking for something that is personalized to him. As such, searches for Father’s Day gifts often contain additional information about the dad or, in many cases, grandpa. Examples commonly used in 2014 were “Christian dad,” “new dads,” “outdoorsy dads” as well dads who are wine or BBQ lovers. While many gift searches include information about the intended recipient, others mention details about the gift-giver or their relationship to the father. Among last year’s variations that included such details, nearly a third focused on gifts that were intended to be given by a “daughter.” Genderless references, such as “kids” or “children” were almost as common. Interestingly, fewer than ten percent were for gifts to be given by a “son.” About a fifth of searches included details about the age of the gift-giver (e.g.: “baby,” “toddler” or “first grader”), while others specified that the gift was to be given by the dad’s wife or girlfriend. Go, go, gadget dad! Gadgets and gizmos are always popular gifts for the techie dad. In fact, during the week immediately preceding Father’s Day last year, visits to Electronics and Appliance websites were up a relative eight percent from two weeks prior. Visits subsequently tapered off the following week. An analysis of search terms driving traffic to the Hitwise Electronics and Appliance industry the week ending June 14 versus May 13, 2014 also sheds some light on the specific items that Father’s Day gift-givers were likely to have been seeking out. Two GPS systems (“Magellan GPS” and “Tom Tom”) were among the top terms that grew search share in the weeks leading into Father’s Day last year. Likewise, “GoPro” appeared in two separate fast growing search terms. Gadgets like these and others listed in the adjacent table may be big gifts for the gadget-loving dad again this year. Gone fishin’ Fishing is a timeless family pastime enjoyed by millions of Americans. According to Experian Marketing Services’ Simmons® National Consumer Study, 28 percent of dads and 26 percent of kids ages six to 17 went fishing last year. As such, it’s no surprise that online searches related to fishing spike over Father’s Day weekend. On the Saturday before Father’s Day in 2014, searches including “fishing” were a relative 28 percent higher than they were the Saturday prior and 64 percent higher than they were the following Saturday. To better understand what kids and dads were seeking out for their fishing plans, Experian Marketing Services conducted an analysis comparing variations of “fishing” searches immediately before Father’s Day last year to those performed two weeks prior. It turns out the word “techniques” was almost 8.6 times more likely to appear in fishing-related searches just before Father’s Day than it was two weeks earlier and “tips” was four times more likely to be used. Likewise, “licenses” was used 2.3 times more frequently, which along with the higher use of “techniques” and “tips” is evidence that many would-be fishermen and women are occasional participants at best. The fact that “charter” and “cabins” were used at higher rates however suggests that other children and/or dads had something in mind beyond a lazy (and likely more affordable) afternoon at the local fishing hole. Gift items, too, like “reels,” “gear” and “tackle” were among those most disproportionately used in searches heading into Father’s Day.
Welcome! Who doesn’t like a warm welcome? Whether your customer is walking into your store or just signed up on your website to receive communications from you, she expects a warm reception. It’s important to make that first impression count. A welcome series helps the conversation open up between the customer and your brand. It sets expectations on the types and cadence of content the customer will receive. Welcome emails also garner 86 percent higher open rates than regular promotional mailings – not too shabby! In a recent webinar, Saks Fifth Avenue shared that they are constantly testing new and current programs to optimize the customer experience. As a result, they discovered that switching from batch-sending welcome emails to sending welcome messages in real time increased open, click and redemption rates significantly. Here’s an example of their welcome series: Saks’ results are consistent with Experian Marketing Services’ welcome email findings which indicate that emails triggered in real time receive up to 10 times the transaction rates and revenue per email vs. those that are batched. A welcome series has also been shown to increase retention by educating customers on new ways to use products and services they’ve purchased from your brand. These emails also can remind customers of the benefits they’ll reap from enrolling in your loyalty programs or credit card. … and welcome back Even if a customer has been welcomed and has interacted with your programs, a day may come when the customer goes silent. Reactivation campaigns are an effective way to get them to re-engage. Naturally, it’s important to target your dormant customers in a variety of channels so you can reach them more effectively. Maybe you’re wondering why I jumped from the warmth of a welcome series right into reality of needing a reactivation campaign. The reason? Marketers need to understand where a customer is in their lifecycle and come full circle with customers if they have parted ways. Marketers can pique the interest of a returning customer by telling them what’s new and reintroducing them to their brand. Carnival® Cruise Lines, for example, sends a welcome-back email that features the newest social networks, offers and deals its customers can take advantage of immediately. At the end of the day, customers expect to receive relevant and engaging messages throughout their entire relationship with a brand. Customer life cycle programs deliver just that. If you’re interested in learning more about welcome campaigns, waitlist/back-in-stock programs and other remarketing strategies, check out our webcast,